The price of natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub trading point has slow risen through the spring and summer–in particular since June (see the chart at left). A collective sigh of relief has come from investors, traders, drillers and just about everyone. But don’t break out the party hats just yet. Analysts are warning that “the party is already coming to an end.” The stark reality is this: the price of natural gas is and will gyrate up and down. That is, the price of natgas is highly volatile and remain so for the foreseeable future. Why? Lots of reasons. Weather is always a big factor. When it’s real hot or real cold, natgas is used to heat or cool, drawing down reserves and boosting the price. When storage levels get high (too much supply, not enough demand), the price goes down. New markets appear to soak up some of the supply, like more electric plants converting to natgas or being built to use natgas, less supply, price goes higher. Hey, it’s complicated. The question is, which Marcellus drillers (i.e. “producers”) are best positioned to ride out these gyrating up and down cycles when it comes to the price natgas will fetch? An analyst with S&P Global Market Intelligence believes he has the answer to that question…
