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Low Prices Bite – U.S. NatGas Producers Drop Output 7% Past Mo.

Earlier this week, MDN told you that EQT, the country’s largest natural gas producer, had implemented an immediate cutback on natural gas production of 1 billion cubic feet per day (see Boom! EQT is Curtailing 1 Bcf/d of Gas Production Effective Now). Other M-U companies have announced similar reductions, including a 25% reduction by Chesapeake Energy (see Chesapeake Dropping 1 Rig in Marcellus as it Waits to Merge with SWN) and a 6% reduction by Coterra Energy (see Coterra Energy Slashing Marcellus Budget 55%, Production by 6%). Antero Resources said it will spend 26% less on drilling this year (see Antero 4Q – Production Up 6%, Profits Down 87%, 21 New Wells). So, with all of these cutbacks, when might we see a slowdown in gas production? Actually, it’s already happening.
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Henry Hub Spot Price Hit Lowest “Real” Level in 27 Yrs in February

The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub daily natural gas price averaged $1.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on February 20, 2024, the lowest price in inflation-adjusted dollars since “at least” 1997. In fact, when you look at the ten lowest daily Henry Hub natgas spot prices since Jan. 1, 1997, six of the ten lowest prices were in February 2024. The other four were in 2020, as the pandemic was taking hold. Amid this depressing news, there is a silver lining…
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Price of NYMEX Henry Hub Hits Lowest Average in 28 Years

“With the exception of three days in 2020 when the pandemic was ravaging energy markets, natural gas prices held above $1.59/MMbtu for the past 28 years – until last week.” So says the experts at RBN Energy, who know about these things. So far this year, natural gas has averaged $2.36/MMBtu, compared to the average price over the past 28 years of $4.12/MMBtu. Ominously, RBN asks, Can it go lower? The answer is…
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Promised Cutbacks in Production/Drilling Lift NYMEX Price 11%

Finally, here’s a little good news to write about regarding the price of natural gas! The NYMEX front month futures contract yesterday started the day with a bang based on announcements from the previous evening (in advance of a conference call) from Chesapeake Energy that the company plans to scale back production by roughly 1 Bcfe/d in 2024 from 2023 levels (down 25-28%, see today’s lead story). Chessy’s announcement, along with rumblings from other big drillers about pulling back in 2024, was enough to boost the NYMEX, which closed up $0.20, or 11%, from the previous day. It was the largest one-day percentage gain since Thursday, July 7, 2022.
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NYMEX Gas Price Free Fall Continues – Flirting with $1.50/MMBtu

It feels like the NYMEX Henry Hub futures price for natural gas is in a free fall, heading for $1.50/MMBtu or (gasp) maybe even lower. Yesterday, the NYMEX price for the front month closed at $1.58/MMBtu. The price has been down for eight trading days in a row and is at the lowest price since June 26, 2020 — roughly 45 months. Year-to-date (45 days), the price is down 93.30 cents, or 37%. The national average for spot prices, a metric monitored by NGI, was down 6 cents yesterday to $1.60/MMBtu. Jeesh!
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NYMEX Henry Hub Futures Price Crash Continues – Closed at $1.77

We’re sad to have to report on yet another down day of the NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures contract. Yesterday, the NYMEX price closed at $1.77/MMBtu, the lowest closing price for the “front month” contract in 3 1/2 years (since Monday, July 27, 2020). Yesterday’s closing price breaks through the latest “floor” of $1.80, an important psychological barrier traders monitor. As has been the case in recent weeks, weather is cited as the main factor in the low price. It’s just not cold enough this winter to spur big domestic demand for natgas. The price is down 31.4 cents (15%) over the last five trading sessions. How much lower will it go?
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EIA’s Outlook for Natural Gas Spot Price in 2024 and 2025

We report today in a companion story about the crash in the NYMEX price to $1.77/MMBtu that NGI’s Spot Gas National Average jumped 36.5 cents to $2.115 yesterday based on winter weather forecasts in some states. What will the Henry Hub spot price (not the futures price, but the physically traded spot price) average for 2024 and 2025? The number crunchers at EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) explain their reasoning for a prediction that the average spot price will remain below $3 this year and next.
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Crash in NatGas Price Likely Means Cut in New M-U Drilling

The NYMEX Henry Hub futures price closed lower once again yesterday, at $1.92 (down a nickel from the previous day). These are prices we haven’t seen in three years. The current crash in price is prompting analysts to speculate (with good reason) that it will result in less new gas well drilling in gas-focused plays, including the Marcellus/Utica and the Haynesville. However, gas volumes won’t necessarily decrease, corresponding to less gas drilling. Why? Because oil is all the rage right now. With more oil drilling comes more associated natural gas production.
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NYMEX Henry Hub NatGas Closes at $1.97, Lowest Price in 3 Years

NYMEX Front Month price chart for last 5 years

Here we go, to the bad old days, once again. Yesterday, the “front month” or “prompt month” for the NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract closed below $2/MMBtu — closing at $1.97. It is the lowest close for the NYMEX front month contract since September 2020, when it closed at $1.83. Yeah, the bad old days of lower for longer. The reason for the current crash in price is, as we told you yesterday, largely due to warm weather (see NatGas Price is Crashing and Burning – How Low Will It Go?). Trading experts say the next level to be tested to see if the price will head even lower will be $1.80/MMBtu. God help us if it closes that low.
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NatGas Price is Crashing and Burning – How Low Will It Go?

U.S. natural gas and power prices hit multi-year highs in mid-January with the prospect of frigid temps and snow storms in various portions of the country (see NatGas Prices Make Huge Jump on Deep Freeze – Some M-U Prices 4X). The NYMEX Henry Hub futures price hit $3.31/MMBtu just three weeks ago. A week later, it was down to $2.52 (see NYMEX Price Took Another Beating Friday, Closed at $2.52/MMBtu). And yesterday, the price struggled to stay above $2, closing at $2.01/MMBtu. Question: How low will the price go? Will we sink below the all-important psychological $2 mark?
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EIA Predicts NYMEX Henry Hub to Average $2.40/MMBtu in Feb/Mar

Once a month, the analysts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months or so. We sometimes poke good-natured fun at the EIA because their predictions go up in one month, and in the next month, they go down, etc. What about the latest STEO dart board, published yesterday? It won’t surprise you to read that due to warmer weather, the EIA prognosticators believe the average Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will remain “subdued” around $2.40/MMBtu in February and March. What about for the entire year?
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Forwards Mkt Predicts Low NatGas Prices in 2024 from LNG Delays

Analysts for S&P Global Commodity Insights have been pouring over the forward prices for natural gas contracts in 2024 and the news is not good. Traders actively bidding on forward contracts in 2024 have priced natural gas below $4/MMBtu. In the forwards market, the summer 2024 strip was $2.45/MMBtu as of Jan. 22, after spending most of 2023 solidly above $4/MMBtu. December 2024 Henry Hub forwards settlements have averaged $3.69 year to date, according to data from S&P. The reason for prices remaining low for all of 2024? A delay in several new LNG export operations from coming online.
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NYMEX Price Took Another Beating Friday, Closed at $2.52/MMBtu

Just one week ago, the price of natural gas, both the futures price and spot (physical) price, jumped — in some cases by four times in the space of just a couple of days (see NatGas Prices Make Huge Jump on Deep Freeze – Some M-U Prices 4X). And just as quickly as the price went high, it crashed again (see NatGas Prices Make Huge Drop on Prospect of Warmer Weather). Since then, the price action has been in the “wrong” (i.e., down) direction. Last week was a short week with the MLK Jr. holiday on Monday. Even so, the abbreviated week saw two weeks of gains wiped out, as the front-month NYMEX natural gas price for February delivery finished down -24% to $2.519/MMBtu, the largest one-week percentage decline since December 2021! However, there was some good news here in the M-U…
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Fitch Solutions’ BMI Predicts Big Increase Coming in Henry Hub Price

BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, recently provided a price forecast for the Henry Hub gas price all the way out to 2028. BMI’s forecast is much rosier than others we’ve read. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently predicted the Henry Hub price will average under $3/MMBtu in both 2024 and 2025. BMI, on the other hand, predicts the HH to hit an average of $3.40/MMBtu this year and $3.60 next year. Their lips to God’s ears!
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NatGas Prices Make Huge Drop on Prospect of Warmer Weather

Well, that didn’t take long. Yesterday we told you about the huge jump in the price of natural gas, both the futures price and the spot (physically traded) price, due to the brutal cold snap much of the country is currently experiencing (see NatGas Prices Make Huge Jump on Deep Freeze – Some M-U Prices 4X). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a weather map for next week (Jan. 22-26) that shows the entire country will most likely experience temperatures above normal. That’s all it took to whack both the futures and spot prices for natural gas.
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NatGas Prices Make Huge Jump on Deep Freeze – Some M-U Prices 4X

U.S. natural gas and power prices hit multi-year highs on Friday with the prospect of frigid temps and snow storms in various portions of the country. The extreme cold was expected to bring record gas demand and cut supplies by freezing wells. The spot price of natural gas at various trading hubs from the West Coast to Middle America to the East Coast all jumped. Of particular interest for us, spot gas prices at the Eastern Gas South hub, widely considered the “benchmark” for the Marcellus/Utica, jumped from $2.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Thursday to $10.40 on Friday — the highest price at that hub since July 2008.
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