NatGas Price is Crashing and Burning – How Low Will It Go?
U.S. natural gas and power prices hit multi-year highs in mid-January with the prospect of frigid temps and snow storms in various portions of the country (see NatGas Prices Make Huge Jump on Deep Freeze – Some M-U Prices 4X). The NYMEX Henry Hub futures price hit $3.31/MMBtu just three weeks ago. A week later, it was down to $2.52 (see NYMEX Price Took Another Beating Friday, Closed at $2.52/MMBtu). And yesterday, the price struggled to stay above $2, closing at $2.01/MMBtu. Question: How low will the price go? Will we sink below the all-important psychological $2 mark?
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U.S. natural gas and power prices hit multi-year highs on Friday with the prospect of frigid temps and snow storms in various portions of the country. The extreme cold was expected to bring record gas demand and cut supplies by freezing wells. The spot price of natural gas at various trading hubs from the West Coast to Middle America to the East Coast all jumped. Of particular interest for us, spot gas prices at the Eastern Gas South hub, widely considered the “benchmark” for the Marcellus/Utica, jumped from $2.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Thursday to $10.40 on Friday — the highest price at that hub since July 2008.
The commodity price for natural gas, as expressed by the NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract (for January), fell 10.5% in early trading yesterday before finally closing at $2.43/MMBtu, down 15 cents (6.17%) from the previous day. Why the big drop when prices are already low? Lack of demand due to warm weather. In fact, according to the National Weather Service, the entire continental United States will be warmer than average for the period of Dec. 19-25. Plump storage numbers, coupled with the weather, had natgas traders heading for the exits.
According to analysts writing for S&P Global Commodity Insights, the long-range forecast from the U.S. National Weather Service calls for milder temperatures in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region this winter. Warm temps equal less natural gas usage. Williams’ Transco Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) project will partially come online in October, flowing an initial 450 MMcf/d (out of 829 MMcf/d) of Marcellus gas to PA, NJ, and Maryland. More supply with less demand is a classic economic prescription for lower prices in New York, New Jersey, and the Mid-Atlantic region. So says the S&P analysts.
Less than a year ago, the Northeast experienced a major winter storm at Christmastime (Winter Storm Elliott). Do you remember it? On Dec. 23, temps in places like the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania hit 60 degrees! Within 12 hours, the bottom dropped out, with temps plunging into the single digits—a more than 50-degree change. Dec. 24’s high temp in the Lehigh Valley (Allentown) was 13 degrees. The massive temperature change caused problems with power generation by natural gas plants, some of which went offline due to freeze-ups in the pipelines that feed them. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) issued a final report yesterday on Winter Storm Elliott, complete with recommendations for sweeping new regulations to prevent future blackouts from storms like Elliott.
Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the “big bend” region of Florida on the morning of Aug. 30 as a Category 3 storm, then lost speed as it crossed the state, downgrading to a Category 1 as it pushed into Georgia, knocking out power to hundreds of thousands of customers and reducing power and natural gas demand along with power prices. One of the consequences of the storm was/is an impact on the shore of Georgia, where the Elba Island LNG export facility is located. While we don’t have a post-storm update (yet), we can tell you that the Marcellus/Utica flowing to Elba Island was reduced by roughly 30% going into the storm.
Long-range forecasts for hot weather and a lighter-than-predicted storage report for natural gas led to a 6% spike up in the price of the NYMEX Henry Hub yesterday, closing at $2.76/MMBtu. The National Weather Service released modeling yesterday that shows hot temps will get hotter for the end of July and the beginning of August. Also, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly storage report yesterday, showing 41 Bcf was injected into storage for the previous week–lower than a predicted mid- to upper-40s Bcf. That was enough for traders to bid up the NYMEX price.
The Henry Hub price of natural gas (even physically traded spot prices around the country) are ever-so-gradually moving higher. Yes, we’re cheerleaders for higher natgas prices! (Not too high, but certainly higher than the current $2-$3 range.) Even though we’re pro-gas and cheerleaders for higher prices (we openly admit our bias), we’re also realists, and we try to bring you the unvarnished truth. Are prices really moving higher? Or is this just another short-term up/down cycle?
The NYMEX Henry Hub price for natural gas is once again in freefall. Over the four previous trading sessions, the price has crashed $1.29/MMBtu (down 25%) to settle yesterday at $3.99. We haven’t seen prices this low since February 2022. Weather is the culprit. Baby, it’s warm outside! So, where is the price heading in 2023? Let’s try to answer that question.
The Marcellus/Utica is THE number one natural gas-producing region in the country–by far. Much of the country, including the M-U, was affected by the bomb cyclone called Winter Storm Elliott over the Christmas break. The bitter cold froze off wells and caused the M-U region collectively to experience a temporary drop in production of roughly 27%. Pennsylvania’s production dropped around 20%, while Ohio’s production dropped 50%.
While the commodity price of natural gas has always drifted up and down, we can’t remember a time (in our coverage of the industry) when it has been so volatile–with wide swings in both directions–as it has been in 2022. Yesterday was another “bottom is dropping out” down day when the NYMEX futures price at the Henry Hub fell by $0.52. The NYMEX price has fallen three days in a row and is down a total of $1.64 (or 23.6%) over those three days.
The front-month NYMEX futures contract (based on the price of gas trading at the Henry Hub) dropped like a rock yesterday–down 70 cents (-12.6%) to $5.58/MMBtu. The price has dropped for the past four trading days in a row. Some say it’s free fallin’. In total, the price has lost $1.66 (-22.9%) over the last four sessions. NYMEX trading during the day yesterday hit its lowest point since March of this year. Why? Mainly a warm short-term weather forecast, coupled with the continuing outage at the Freeport LNG export facility.
Here we go again. Just a few days ago, the benchmark NYMEX price for natural gas (the “front month” contract for October) was trading below $8/MMBtu. Yesterday the price spiked up 10% in a single day–up 83 cents to $9.11. This was the 11th time this year the NYMEX price has either spiked or fallen by 10% or more, which hasn’t happened since 2001, when it spiked or fell 10% or more for 14 days. The watchword is volatility. Wild swings. The question is, Why did the price spike yesterday in particular? We have an answer.
Here’s something you don’t often see: The price that natural gas is fetching in the eastern part of the country is significantly higher than the price gas fetches at the benchmark Henry Hub in southern Louisiana. The heat wave hitting the country’s middle section and points east is the main driver, but so is a lack of natural gas pipelines from the Marcellus/Utica to southern states.