It’s Time to Keep Track of Mexico’s NatGas Market – Here’s How
For some time now, MDN has had its eye on Mexico. No, not for a vacation (although that would be sweet), but because of the natural gas market, which is undergoing a dramatic change. Mexico passed landmark energy sector structural reform in 2013 and 2014, freeing up Mexico’s oil and gas markets from strict government control. The reforms abolished the state monopolies administered by state-owned companies Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission with the aim of creating competitive markets in the oil and gas industry AND in the power industry. Why? To attract private investment with the ultimate aim of dramatically improving Mexico’s energy markets. While renewable energy grabbed much of the attention in mainstream media, the core of the energy reform effort lies in the expansion of Mexico’s natural gas market. Not only is power generation heavily focused on increasing capacity through gas-fired combined cycle power plants, but also consumption by industrial users is expected to rise at a steady pace in the coming decades. Mexico is going through a rapid expansion of its natural gas pipeline infrastructure–with a number of projects either under construction or planned. This expansion has opened numerous opportunities for the private sector, with more on the way. So how does Mexico affect the Marcellus/Utica? (1) Some of our gas may end up flowing across the border–eventually. Maybe not today or tomorrow, but there are pipeline projects that already are, or soon will, carry our gas to the Gulf Coast. From there, it’s a short trip over the border. Mexico may become an important future market for our gas. (2) Even if our gas never flows across the border, gas from Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma will. As that gas goes south, it doesn’t go north to compete with Marcellus/Utica gas and opens up more markets for our gas in the Midwest and South. (3) As more American gas flows south–from whichever source–prices at the Henry Hub (and everywhere else, including the Marcellus/Utica) will go higher. It’s simple economics: less supply, same demand, equal higher prices. Mexico’s natgas market bears watching, and watching closely. How can you keep track of it? The same way we do. NGI (Natural Gas Intelligence) recently introduced a news service that tracks what’s happening in the Mexico natgas market–and for the next few months you can get it for FREE…
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The natural gas market in the United States is big and complex, with a lot of moving parts. When MDN editor Jim Willis began working in the market full-time in 2012, he learned from some of the best in the business–the people at Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). There’s a whole lot more to our wonderful market than just drilling wells for natural gas, the “upstream” part of the business. There’s also pipelines, processing plants and compressor stations–the “midstream”; and petrochemical plants, LNG exports and other end users, the “downstream.” Perhaps one the key lessons Jim learned early on in working with NGI is ours is a market driven solely by price. And not just one price! Yes, the Henry Hub in South Louisiana is the most quoted price point in the world when it comes to natgas. Indeed, it forms the basis price against which all other trading points are measured. But Jim learned early on there isn’t just one price for natural gas, there are many (hundreds!) of prices for natural gas, because natural gas is traded at hundreds of different locations along pipelines, all around the country. When Jim was being taught about the markets and prices and why and where drillers decide to drill, driven by price, one of the key resources used to teach Jim was the NGI Map of Shale & Resource Plays in North America. It was a revelation that made a lasting impression when Jim’s tutors walked him over to the NGI map hanging on the wall and pointed out all of the different shale plays, pipelines, and trading points along those pipelines. Suddenly, the complex world of natgas with its many moving parts snapped into place. It was now understandable. NGI’s wall map is the tool that did that for Jim. Perhaps it can do the same for you…
Here’s a quote that nearly made our eyeballs drop out: “In the PJM queue, there’s roughly 130 planned gas-fired power plants scheduled to enter service through 2021 totaling 76 GW under various stages of development across a large part of the market that includes Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia, Delaware and New Jersey.” Did you catch that? Some 130 natural gas-fired electric generating plants–most (if not all) of them fed by Marcellus/Utica gas, will go online in the next four years, generating 76 gigawatts of electricity. It is an enormous opportunity for our industry. Where did we read that stat? In a new report published by our friends at Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). The report is called “Pipelines & Power: How New Infrastructure Could Uncork the Marcellus-Utica Natgas Bottleneck.” The opening article in the report contains the quote above (on page 2). This 20-page report is jam-packed with great information, like that quote. Actionable, useful, important information. Let us tell you a little more about NGI, about the report, and how you can get a copy…
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