MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Tue, Apr 15, 2025 [FREE ACCESS]
OTHER U.S. REGIONS: NextDecade strikes LNG supply deal with TotalEnergies for 1.5 million tonnes annually; Stakeholders respond to Mass. proposal to limit cost recovery for gas expansion; NATIONAL: U.S. natural gas slumps to nine-week low on record production, expected lower demand; White House ends funding for key U.S. climate body; Sustaining energy dominance in a shifting global market; INTERNATIONAL: Oil prices flat amid trade and Iran talks; OPEC cuts oil demand forecast for 2025 and 2026 on trade war; BMI reveals latest Brent oil price forecasts; Trump has been proven right about pretty much everything.
OTHER U.S. REGIONS
NextDecade strikes LNG supply deal with TotalEnergies for 1.5 million tonnes annually
Reuters
NextDecade, a U.S. LNG producer, has secured a 20-year agreement to supply France’s TotalEnergies with 1.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG from its Rio Grande facility’s planned fourth liquefaction train, bringing the total contracted volume from Train 4 to 4.6 MTPA, including a recent deal with a Saudi Aramco subsidiary. This volume is expected to support a favorable Final Investment Decision (FID) for the project, though deals remain contingent on that decision. The Rio Grande LNG plant, long in development, has faced repeated delays, with its first train now slated for completion by 2027. TotalEnergies, a major early investor in Rio Grande and the largest U.S. LNG offtaker, exports over 10 million tonnes annually and aims to exceed 15 million by 2030. Total’s CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, expressed ambitions to expand Rio Grande’s capacity with additional trains over the next decade, balancing investments in natural gas and renewables. [MDN: Our interest, as always, with these LNG deals is the prospect that M-U molecules will flow to these monster facilities. The Rio Grande LNG facility may use some M-U molecules, although it’s more likely the Permian and possibly the Eagle Ford will supply most of the gas, given the facility’s location in Brownsville, TX.]
Stakeholders respond to Mass. proposal to limit cost recovery for gas expansion
RTO Insider
The Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) has proposed a policy requiring new gas customers to bear the full cost of connecting to the gas system, ending the practice of utilities recovering these costs through ratepayer distribution fees over time. This shift aims to align with the state’s climate goals, which prioritize electrification and decarbonization, as outlined in the 2025-2030 Clean Energy and Climate Plan targeting a 49% emissions reduction by 2030. Environmental and consumer advocates, including the Attorney General’s Office, support the policy, citing risks of stranded costs and a “price vortex” that could burden remaining gas customers, particularly low-income households. However, gas utilities, real estate groups, and business associations like National Grid and Associated Industries of Massachusetts oppose it, arguing it could hinder economic and housing development and raise energy costs. Exemptions are proposed for projects reducing emissions, but stakeholders debate their clarity and implementation, with some calling for stricter criteria and technical sessions to refine the policy. [MDN: Yet another way Massachuetts is attempting to sideline and phase out the use of natural gas. You can’t fix stupid.]
NATIONAL
U.S. natural gas slumps to nine-week low on record production, expected lower demand
Seeking Alpha
U.S. natural gas futures dropped to a nine-week low of $3.325/MMBtu on Monday, driven by record production and forecasts of reduced demand. LSEG reported that average gas output in the Lower 48 states reached 106.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/day) in April, surpassing March’s record, with a peak of 107.4 Bcf/day over the weekend. However, weaker demand is expected next week due to warmer-than-normal temperatures projected through April, reducing heating needs while cooling demands rise slowly. Analysts suggest potential cuts in oil drilling, influenced by falling crude prices and uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff policies, could reduce associated gas output and support gas prices. Despite strong LNG feedgas demand, increased wind and solar generation is bearish for gas, with renewables expected to perform strongly this week, further pressuring natural gas futures amid a sixth decline in seven sessions. [MDN: Bummer. We had hoped gas would stay near or above $4. Now we have to worry about sinking below $3 again.]
White House ends funding for key U.S. climate body
London (UK) The Guardian
The Guardian article reports that the Trump administration has taken significant steps to undermine climate science by targeting the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which oversees the National Climate Assessment (NCA). On April 7, 2025, the administration issued an executive order to halt the NCA’s production, redirecting its $200 million budget to other priorities and disbanding its advisory committee. This move aligns with the administration’s broader dismissal of climate change, including plans to eliminate key climate research at agencies like NOAA and NASA. Critics, including scientists and Democratic lawmakers, warn that these actions jeopardize critical data needed for addressing climate impacts, accusing the administration of prioritizing fossil fuel interests over public welfare. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 is cited as influencing these policies, raising concerns about long-term damage to global climate research. Meanwhile, some Republican figures defend the cuts, claiming they address exaggerated climate narratives. [MDN: Good riddance! We don’t need the NCA and we are delighted to see Trump defunding ICF International, the company that produced this nonsense report. ICF is a taxpayer bloodsucking company in D.C. that profits by Democrat politicians funneling money to it. Drain the swamp!]
Sustaining energy dominance in a shifting global market
Forbes
Dan Eberhart emphasizes the importance of maintaining U.S. energy leadership through adaptability and innovation. He highlights America’s rise to an energy superpower, driven by the shale boom, private capital, and technological advancements, which have made it the world’s top oil and gas producer, contributing 20% of global oil supply. However, challenges loom as shale plays mature, regulatory hurdles increase, and China dominates clean energy supply chains like EVs and solar modules. Eberhart argues that sustaining dominance requires keeping all energy options open—fossil fuels, renewables, and nuclear—while streamlining regulations, investing in infrastructure, and fostering innovation. He warns that without proactive measures, such as addressing plateauing shale productivity and countering China’s clean energy lead, the U.S. risks losing its edge. Eberhart concludes that America’s energy future depends on bold, strategic actions now to ensure economic and geopolitical strength. [MDN: We are not sure we agree with Eberhart, who is an oil and gas guy (CEO of Canary, an oilfield services company). We’re not at all bothered by China “leading” in unreliable renewable energy. American ingenuity and the free enterprise system always rise to the top in any challenge, including energy today and in the future.]
INTERNATIONAL
Oil prices flat amid trade and Iran talks
Bloomberg/Rigzone
Oil prices remained stable as traders evaluated the U.S.’s latest trade war actions and the potential for increased Iranian crude supply following constructive nuclear talks. West Texas Intermediate settled near $61.50 per barrel, while Brent stayed below $65, despite a stock market rally prompted by President Trump’s pause on certain electronics tariffs. However, concerns about rising U.S. inflation expectations and a gloomy demand outlook weighed on oil futures. OPEC and the U.S. Energy Information Administration cut global consumption growth forecasts, and banks like JPMorgan lowered price predictions, with Brent expected to average $66 in 2025. The U.S.-China trade tensions and fears of a global recession further depressed crude prices, compounded by OPEC+’s unexpected decision to restore output sooner. Goldman Sachs warned of significant oil surpluses, predicting Brent at $63 for the rest of 2025, amid broader market sell-offs and a $2 billion outflow from crude and fuel markets. [MDN: WTI for May delivery gained 3 cents to settle at $61.53 a barrel in New York. Brent for June settlement edged up 12 cents to settle at $64.88 a barrel. These prices in the $60s are PERFECT! We love it right here.]
OPEC cuts oil demand forecast for 2025 and 2026 on trade war
Bloomberg/Rigzone
OPEC has slightly reduced its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by about 100,000 barrels per day, projecting a 1.3 million barrel per day increase for each year, despite President Trump’s tariffs impacting consumption. This estimate, outlined in a Vienna report, remains more optimistic than others, like the US Energy Information Administration’s 900,000 barrels per day and Goldman Sachs’ 500,000 barrels per day for 2025. Meanwhile, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, is accelerating production increases to lower crude prices—currently near $65 per barrel in London after hitting a four-year low—to enforce output quotas among members. Kazakhstan, for instance, exceeded its quota by 422,000 barrels per day last month, ignoring pledges to cut back. OPEC’s demand forecasts have been inconsistent, with a 32% cut to its 2024 outlook over six months, contrasting with the International Energy Agency’s upcoming, closely watched projections. [MDN: Notice the disconnect between the headline and the substance of the article, written by the sleazy Bloombergers. Oil demand will INCREASE this year and next, yet the headline implies a decrease due to Trump’s “trade war.” The upshot is that oil demand and the amount of oil flowing to meet that demand will increase for the foreseeable future. It may be slight, but it’s certainly not a decrease.]
BMI reveals latest Brent oil price forecasts
Rigzone
In a recent BMI report, the Fitch Group revised its Brent oil price forecasts, projecting an average of $68 per barrel in 2025, down from $76, and $71 per barrel in 2026, down from $75, with prices holding at $70 per barrel from 2027 to 2029. These adjustments reflect a mid-month update prompted by U.S. trade policy changes, increasing global economic risks and tariff rates, which are expected to dampen oil demand and market sentiment. BMI notes a potential supply overhang and weaker economic activity as key factors, despite oil’s relatively inelastic consumption. In contrast, a Bloomberg consensus predicts slightly higher averages, ranging from $69 to $75 per barrel through 2029. Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan’s forecast is more bearish, anticipating $66 per barrel in 2025 and $57 in 2026, citing heightened trade uncertainties and an OPEC+ production shift, potentially leading to a surplus and prices dipping below $60 by year-end. [MDN: There’s certainly a lot of “expectations” around the very fluid tariff situation. So-called analysts think things will slow down because of the “tariff war” President Trump has launched. And just the minute they think they’ve got it figured out, it changes (for the better). Perhaps it’s time to stop listening to the so-called analysts.]
Trump has been proven right about pretty much everything
London (UK) Telegraph
The article argues that President Trump has been proven correct on major issues like the economic downsides of the Paris Climate Accords, China’s malevolent global influence, the harms of Covid lockdowns, the threat of the “deep state,” and the negative impacts of mass migration, yet the Western elite vilifies him for challenging their failed policies. It highlights the decline of industrial towns in the U.S. and Britain, exacerbated by high energy prices and policies like net zero, which have led to economic struggles and social issues. The piece criticizes Western leaders—such as Bill Clinton, Tony Blair, and David Cameron—for enabling China’s rise, expanding state power, and embracing flawed ideologies like DEI and climate targets. It defends Trump’s aggressive tactics as necessary to disrupt a hostile establishment, urging Britain to adopt similar boldness by prioritizing national interests, cutting regulations, and rejecting globalist policies, rather than blaming Trump for exposing their own failures. [MDN: Wow! What terrific op-ed, written by Liz Truss, a former (very brief) Prime Minister in the UK. She was drubbed out by low-life swampies on her side of the pond. She would have been the DJT of the UK, if she had had a chance. In this op-ed Truss talks about how fracking would have helped transform the UK. Maybe one day she’ll be back? We certainly hope so.]