MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Fri, May 16, 2025 [FREE ACCESS]
MARCELLUS/UTICA REGION: Gov. Shapiro’s “Lightning Plan” tax credit, community energy pass PA House; OTHER U.S. REGIONS: NE needs natural gas, Dems block it; NATIONAL: A fraction of proposed data centers will get built; Storage build pressures natural gas futures; Natural gas price forecast – decline deepens after breaking key support levels; Energy private equity patiently waits to pounce and lead the next wave of oil and gas M&A; What will Republican defenders of the IRA do now?; INTERNATIONAL: Legislation for Great British Energy passes through Parliament; Oil slips as Trump eyes Iran deal; Russia oil export revenue at lowest since 2023 as prices slump; EIA forecasts world oil consumption growth to slow amid less economic activity.
MARCELLUS/UTICA REGION
Gov. Shapiro’s “Lightning Plan” tax credit, community energy pass PA House
PA Environment Digest Blog
On May 15, 2025, Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro announced partisan (Democrat-only) House passage of two key components of his so-called Lightning Energy Plan: House Bill 500, the Pennsylvania Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE) Tax Credit, and House Bill 504, the Community Energy Act. The EDGE Tax Credit, established in 2022 but unused, aims to attract investment in critical sectors like semiconductors, biomedical, milk processing, and clean energy through programs offering up to $100 million per facility for reliable energy, $49 million annually for hydrogen projects, and more. The Community Energy Act enables agriculture producers and low-income Pennsylvanians to share energy resources, reducing costs. Supported by labor, environmental, and consumer groups, the plan seeks to create jobs, lower consumer costs [but will raise them], expedite permitting via a state energy siting board [more bureaucracy], and enhance energy efficiency rebates [pay people to dump fossil energy], positioning Pennsylvania as a national leader [loser] in clean, reliable, and affordable energy for decades. [MDN: These were partisan-passed bills that are DOA in the Republican-controlled Senate. Thank God.]
OTHER U.S. REGIONS
NE needs natural gas, Dems block it
Boston Herald
New England faces a peculiar energy dilemma, relying on natural gas shipped from Trinidad and Tobago, 2,300 miles away, despite the Marcellus Shale’s proximity in Pennsylvania, just a nine-hour drive from Manchester, N.H. Limited pipeline capacity, coupled with high demand for electricity and natural gas, exacerbates the issue, while many northern New England homes still use high-carbon heating oil. New York and Massachusetts, staunchly opposed to new pipelines, create significant logistical barriers, with Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey proudly blocking projects to align with climate goals. Although federal approval was granted for projects like the Constitution Pipeline, state-level rejections, such as New York’s denial of a water quality permit, have stalled progress. High energy costs in New England have prompted some, like Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, to consider cooperation on natural gas infrastructure. However, navigating the complex web of federal and state regulations remains a daunting challenge, with political resistance in blue states hindering reliable energy solutions. [MDN: As we have pointed out countless times, New England is screwing itself by blocking pipelines that carry Marcellus molecules. Instead, they use unreliable renewables, and must default back to using heating oil and other far-more-polluting sources of energy. The virtue signaling of the left is more important than actually benefiting the environment by using natural gas. There is no fixing stupid.]
NATIONAL
A fraction of proposed data centers will get built
Utility Dive
The U.S. power grid is overwhelmed with speculative data center proposals that may never materialize, complicating planning for utilities and grid operators. Experts estimate that only 10-20% of interconnection requests actually result in built projects, leading to distorted load forecasts and potential overbuilding. RAND Corporation’s 2030 AI power demand forecast of 347 GW was criticized as excessive, with Schneider Electric suggesting a more realistic range of 16.5-65.3 GW. Utilities are struggling to assess the viability of proposed projects as developers frequently abandon plans, often concealed under vague LLCs. Some utilities are adopting standardized interconnection processes, requiring larger financial commitments, or seeking state support to manage speculative requests. Proposed solutions include commercial readiness tests, phased fees, and more transparency in project queues. In Virginia, three utilities have introduced new rate classes and collateral requirements for data centers, aiming to mitigate financial risks while protecting existing customers from bearing the costs of speculative projects. [MDN: The key issue is who pays for adding more electric power to serve these data centers. It’s certainly not unwarranted to demand the data center builder themselves need to pony up the money, up front, if they expect local utilities to lay out money to add new power generation. On the other hand, it’s not unwarranted to allow data centers to build their own power generation on-site, something the local grid folks seem to oppose. What’s fair is fair in both cases.]
Storage build pressures natural gas futures
NGI’s Daily Gas Price Index
Natural gas futures fell after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 110 Bcf storage injection for the week ending May 9, aligning with market expectations but accelerating a modest price retreat. June Nymex futures settled at $3.362/MMBtu, down 13 cents, while the Spot Gas National Avg. dropped to $2.510. The build increased total working gas to 2,255 Bcf, widening the surplus to the five-year average to 57 Bcf but remaining 275 Bcf below last year’s level. Continued strong injections, driven by mild weather forecasts and lackluster demand, suggest further downside pressure on prices. Lower 48 demand rose slightly to 74.4 Bcf/d, but LNG feed gas demand may face headwinds from maintenance outages. Spot gas prices crashed despite lingering southern heat, with Waha falling to 70.5 cents. Lawmakers proposed fast-tracking LNG and pipeline permits, potentially boosting exports, while U.S.-China tariff reductions introduced trade policy uncertainty. [MDN: We keep hearing the enviro-left and accomplices in Big Chemical proclaim LNG exports are driving the price of natural gas higher. Yet we see the price decreasing, even though LNG exports have increased.]
Natural gas price forecast – decline deepens after breaking key support levels
FX Empire
Natural gas prices fell to $3.34, breaking through key support levels, including the $3.42 interim swing low and the 20-Day Moving Average, confirming a bearish reversal. The decline breached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) line, which had previously acted as support. A head and shoulders topping pattern formed, with the recent high of $3.73 testing resistance at the pattern’s neckline, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50-Day MA. The failure to hold these levels suggests further downside risk, with the 50% retracement at $3.45 under pressure. If selling continues, the next target is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.23, near the rising 200-Day MA, which could attract prices. Sustained weakness below $3.45 increases the likelihood of deeper declines, signaling a bearish short-term outlook for natural gas. [MDN: This is how traders think about and talk about prices for natural gas futures. Scary, isn’t it? But important to understand how and why the prices move as they do.]
Energy private equity patiently waits to pounce and lead the next wave of oil and gas M&A
Fortune
In early April 2025, oil and gas deal-making slowed dramatically due to plunging crude oil prices and tariff uncertainties, halting a previously robust pace of mergers and acquisitions. Major U.S. oil companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips had driven consolidation by acquiring smaller firms, with significant deals like Exxon’s $60 billion purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources and Conoco’s $22.5 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil in 2024. Private equity firms, holding substantial capital reserves, anticipated opportunities to buy non-core assets from these majors but faced delays due to market volatility and a mismatch in buyer-seller price expectations. Firms like Kayne Anderson, which raised $2.25 billion for its latest fund, and Post Oak Energy Capital are cautiously pursuing smaller deals while awaiting clearer market conditions. Analysts suggest that persistent low oil prices into 2026 could expand the pool of divestible assets, potentially spurring activity if economic stability returns. [MDN: The article suggests PE firms are waiting in the wings, ready to pounce, and until then they are working on smaller deals.]
What will Republican defenders of the IRA do now?
POLITICO – E&E News Daily
House Republicans, who previously championed renewable energy tax credits, are now critical of a GOP-led megabill that significantly reduces these incentives, as part of a budget reconciliation package to extend 2017 tax cuts, enhance border security, and boost domestic energy. The House Ways and Means Committee is advancing a measure that phases out or eliminates billions in Inflation Reduction Act tax benefits, including credits for electric vehicles, hydrogen production, and nuclear power, while ending transferability practices. Rep. Andrew Garbarino, leading a group of Republicans advocating for clean energy subsidies, expressed disappointment but noted limited options to amend the bill before it reaches the House floor. Democrats argue the proposal favors the wealthy and harms workers, while some Republicans, like Rep. Dan Newhouse, lament the impact on nuclear investments. The bill’s passage remains uncertain, with potential Senate revisions anticipated, as senators like Kevin Cramer suggest adjustments to support emerging technologies. [MDN: If anyone stands in the way of passing this bill, they need to be primaried and removed at the next election. The lines are drawn. It’s time to gut the inflation-inducing Inflation Reduction Act spending spree under dementia Joe. Shame on Republicans who still support it.]
INTERNATIONAL
Legislation for Great British Energy passes through Parliament
Rigzone
The UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero announced that the Great British Energy Bill has passed through Parliament, establishing Great British Energy, a publicly owned energy company backed by £8.3 billion ($11.02 billion) to invest in clean power projects across the UK. The legislation, the first to receive consent from all three devolved governments in this parliament, aims to make Britain a clean energy superpower by accelerating strategic energy projects, such as floating offshore wind, and investing alongside the private sector. Great British Energy will focus on technologies that enhance energy independence and deliver public benefits, with initial projects including rooftop solar panels on 200 schools and 200 NHS sites, supported by a £200 million ($258.6 million) investment. Led by interim CEO Dan McGrail and chaired by Juergen Maier, the company seeks to ensure British people benefit from homegrown energy, reduce energy bills, and support the government’s modern Industrial Strategy. [MDN: Incredible. Great Britain is swirling the toilet bowl and about to be fully and completely flushed. They already HAVE homegrown power—oil and gas from the North Sea. Yet the country is doubling down on unreliable renewables, the kind of energy that led to a countrywide blackout in Spain not long ago. Our friends the Brits have jumped the shark and are committing energy suicide.]
Oil slips as Trump eyes Iran deal
Bloomberg/Rigzone
Oil prices dropped for a second consecutive day, with Brent falling over 2% to below $65 and US crude futures also declining, following President Trump’s announcement that the US and Iran are nearing a nuclear deal, potentially flooding the market with additional supply. Analysts warn that lifting sanctions on Iran could add 200,000 to 300,000 barrels daily, exacerbating an already oversupplied market due to OPEC+’s faster-than-expected output increases and uncertain demand amid US trade talks. Despite Trump’s optimism, Iran’s Foreign Minister urged a more realistic US approach in upcoming Oman-mediated talks. The International Energy Agency forecasts slower global oil demand growth due to trade uncertainties, adding pressure on prices, which have hit a four-year low. Brent averages $63 this month, the lowest since 2021, impacting producer budgets while easing inflation in consuming nations. Prices remain 14% lower this year. [MDN: Brent for July settlement shed 2.4% to settle at $64.53 a barrel. WTI for June delivery fell 2.4% to settle at $61.62 a barrel. Still perfect.]
Russia oil export revenue at lowest since 2023 as prices slump
Bloomberg/Rigzone
In April, Russia’s oil-export revenues dropped to $13.2 billion, the lowest since June 2023, driven by declining global crude prices amid weak demand, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The average price for Russian crude fell to $55.6 per barrel, below the G7-imposed price cap, reflecting international market trends. Global oil prices, including a 14% drop in Brent this year, are pressured by U.S. tariff policies, reduced demand in China, and potential oversupply from increased Iranian oil flows and OPEC’s gradual return of withheld barrels. Russia’s budget, heavily reliant on oil and gas for 30% of its revenue, faces strain as the deficit widens amid high war spending in Ukraine. Despite lower prices, Russia’s oil exports held steady at 7.55 million barrels daily, with premium ESPO crude hitting a record high, attracting alternative buyers as Chinese demand eased. Total crude production rose to 9.3 million barrels daily, aided by a ceasefire reducing Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries. [MDN: This is part of Trump’s brilliant strategy in driving DOWN the price of oil. He is denying Putin revenue to continue his war against Ukraine.]
EIA forecasts world oil consumption growth to slow amid less economic activity
U.S. Energy Information Administration – Today in Energy
The May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts a slowdown in global crude oil and liquid fuels consumption growth over 2025 and 2026, driven by weaker economic growth, particularly in Asia. Global GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% annually, the lowest rate since 2008, excluding 2009 and 2020, increasing downside risks to oil consumption due to uncertainties in trade, manufacturing, and investment. Recent U.S. tariffs may have already reduced global trade, impacting shipping, trucking, employment, and leisure travel, all of which curb oil demand. Global oil consumption, around 103 million barrels per day in 2024, is projected to grow by less than 1 million b/d annually in 2025 and 2026, with Asia’s growth revised down to 0.5 million b/d from 0.7 million b/d. Smaller adjustments are expected in other regions. The forecast remains uncertain, with real-time economic indicators like vessel traffic and U.S. petroleum reports providing further insights. [MDN: While the EIA does its best to forecast accurately, we don’t see how they can even hazard a guess right now about economic slowdowns and such. We see mainstream media trying to talk down the economy hoping to damage Trump. Notice how if America is harmed or loses, the media is happy? When in fact we see signs that the economy is beginning to roar. We think the EIA is wrong on this prediction.]