MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Tue, Jun 17, 2025 [FREE ACCESS]
NATIONAL: ‘Net zero’ is collapsing in U.S. states; INTERNATIONAL: Oil drops on signs conflict may spare Iranian crude production; OPEC says output hike tempered by compensation from quota cheats; Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint; EU aims to cut all Russian gas imports by 2027; Countries in the AI race are realizing they are also in an energy race; “Ancient carbon” is leaking into atmosphere, upending thinking on climate change models.
NATIONAL
‘Net zero’ is collapsing in U.S. states
Watts Up With That?/Steve Goreham
Net Zero electricity in U.S. states, particularly from New York to California, is failing due to soaring power demands, especially from the AI sector, and reduced federal support for wind, solar, and grid batteries. The article highlights that 23 states aimed for 100% Net Zero electricity by 2050, but rising costs—exemplified by California’s 116% electricity rate increase over 16 years, far exceeding the national average—along with issues like offshore wind cancellations, federal subsidy cuts, and grid battery fires, are undermining these efforts. States with aggressive green goals, like California, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, face the highest electricity costs, making renewables less viable. The article suggests that the inability of renewables to meet growing energy demands and their high costs signal a collapse of the Net Zero transition in the U.S. [MDN: Net zero is dead, let’s just admit the truth. The only people who don’t seem to understand that are those stuck in Big Green delusions.]
INTERNATIONAL
Oil drops on signs conflict may spare Iranian crude production
Bloomberg/Mia Gindis, Alex Longley
Oil prices declined as fears of Middle East conflict disrupting crude production eased, with West Texas Intermediate falling 1.7% to $71.77 a barrel and Brent dropping 1.3% to $73.23. The decline followed reports of Iran seeking to de-escalate tensions with Israel, as confirmed by US President Donald Trump, reducing concerns about a prolonged conflict in a region producing a third of global crude. Despite an Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field and nuclear sites, critical oil-exporting infrastructure, including the vital Strait of Hormuz, remained unaffected. However, the oil market remains volatile, with prices significantly higher than pre-conflict levels due to recent strikes. Analysts from RBC Capital Markets and Morgan Stanley highlighted risks to key export hubs like Kharg Island, while shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf and soaring supertanker rates reflect ongoing regional tensions. Egypt is seeking alternative fuel supplies to mitigate gas flow disruptions from Israel. [MDN: As we said yesterday, once things settle a bit, we fully expect the oil price to slip back into the $60s. It’s already beginning.]
OPEC says output hike tempered by compensation from quota cheats
Bloomberg/Grant Smith
In May, key OPEC+ nations increased oil production by 154,000 barrels per day, significantly less than the planned 411,000-barrel increase, as the group’s leadership, led by Saudi Arabia, pushed members to offset prior over-production. Countries like Iraq, the UAE, and Russia made compensatory cuts, but the eight nations involved still exceeded their collective target by nearly 400,000 barrels daily, largely due to Kazakhstan’s persistent over-pumping. Saudi Arabia, aiming to punish quota violators and reclaim market share, drove the group to accelerate output revival, initially weakening oil prices. Recent Israeli attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, however, have pushed U.S. crude futures to around $73 per barrel. Despite these tensions, OPEC’s Secretary General stated no immediate action is needed as Iran’s exports remain unaffected. The 22-nation OPEC+ alliance saw a total output rise of 180,000 barrels daily, with another meeting planned for July 6 to discuss further increases. [MDN: Oh gee, thug dictators (OPEC members) cheat on one another. Color us surprised…NOT.]
Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint
U.S. Energy Information Administration – Today in Energy
The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Oman and Iran, is a critical global oil chokepoint, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, handling about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption. Despite regional tensions, maritime traffic remained unblocked, though Brent crude prices rose from $69 to $74 per barrel in June 2025. The strait’s importance stems from limited alternative routes, with only Saudi Arabia and the UAE having pipelines bypassing it, offering about 2.6 million b/d capacity. Declines in crude oil transit from 2022–2024, partly due to OPEC+ production cuts and regional refining growth, were offset by increased petroleum product flows. In 2024, Saudi Arabia led exports through the strait, with 84% of crude and 83% of LNG heading to Asian markets, particularly China and India, making them vulnerable to disruptions. [MDN: If Iran does something really stupid, like bombing oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, world oil trade will go haywire, at least for a while. The U.S. military has a major presence in the area.]
EU aims to cut all Russian gas imports by 2027
OilPrice.com/Tsvetana Paraskova
The European Commission is set to propose a ban on new contracts for Russian natural gas under trade law, requiring only a majority vote to bypass potential vetoes from Hungary and Slovakia, who rely on Russian gas via a Balkan pipeline and have resisted an outright ban. This move, reported by the Financial Times, aims to end the EU’s dependency on Russian energy by 2027, as outlined in a recent roadmap. While Hungary and Slovakia will receive exemptions to phase out existing contracts by 2027, the proposal includes stopping spot contracts by the end of 2025 and requires EU companies to disclose detailed contract information, including duration, volumes, and destination clauses, to enhance transparency and monitoring. This trade law approach sidesteps the unanimous approval needed for sanctions, facilitating the EU’s strategy to eliminate Russian gas imports while addressing resistance from member states reliant on these supplies. [MDN: This is a joke. By 2027, the Russia/Ukraine war will be over, one way or the other, and the EU will say it’s no longer necessary not to buy Russian natural gas. One more spineless move by a bunch of spineless weenies.]
Countries in the AI race are realizing they are also in an energy race
Forbes/Mark Le Dain
The article discusses the escalating energy demands driven by the global AI race, highlighting that electricity is becoming a critical constraint as countries like the U.S. and China invest billions in AI research, model development, and chip manufacturing. Data centers, essential for AI operations, are projected to consume over 9% of U.S. power in the coming years, with global electricity use from data centers, AI, and cryptocurrencies potentially doubling by 2026, surpassing Japan’s consumption. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, emphasized the immense energy costs of AI, advocating for breakthroughs like fusion energy to meet future needs. The article notes that Northern Virginia, the world’s largest data center hub, faces challenges due to limited land and power availability. As AI growth accelerates, countries are loosening policies to attract investment, recognizing that reliable, low-cost energy is pivotal for maintaining a competitive edge in this transformative technological race. [MDN: It’s a virtuous cycle. AI requires power, and power needs to be reliable, abundant, and cheap, meaning power needs natural gas. Countries like the U.S. and, yes, China, understand this. Losers like Europe, don’t.]
“Ancient carbon” is leaking into atmosphere, upending thinking on climate change models
The Debrief/MJ Banias
A groundbreaking study published in Nature reveals that rivers globally are releasing significant amounts of ancient carbon—stored for centuries or millennia in deep soils, sediments, and rocks—into the atmosphere as CO? and CH?, challenging long-held assumptions about the carbon cycle. Previously, scientists believed river emissions primarily stemmed from recent plant decay, but the study shows 59% of river CO? comes from ancient sources, totaling about 1.2 gigatons annually, comparable to land ecosystem carbon uptake. This suggests terrestrial ecosystems absorb more CO? than estimated, acting as a critical buffer against climate change. Human activities like deforestation, agriculture, and permafrost thaw may accelerate this carbon leakage, necessitating updates to climate models. The findings underscore the urgency of refining global carbon budgets and policies to account for this significant, previously underestimated flux of ancient carbon from rivers to the atmosphere. [MDN: In other words, all of the bullcrapus the Big Green left has preached about fossil energy being the source, ergo the cause, of “global warming” has been just that—bullcrapus. How much longer will otherwise intelligent humans believe the lies about CO2 and CH4 toasting the planet?]