MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Wed, Aug 27, 2025 [FREE ACCESS]

OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Commonwealth LNG orders BH compressors to power next-gen LNG export facility; JEA Board approves plan to build natural gas plant to meet future energy needs; NATIONAL: U.S. natural gas futures mixed in choppy session; Oil price settles lower after rally; The U.S. now exports 30% of the energy it produces; Drilling improvements allow oil, gas production to rise as rig count falls; U.S. and Canadian markets ‘completely and inextricably intertwined’; INTERNATIONAL: OPEC+ may unwind 1.65mm bpd of cuts at next meeting, analyst warns; Japan’s utilities cut fossil fuel electricity share to new lows; Britain’s net-zero scheme is being derailed by opposition to solar and wind projects.

OTHER U.S. REGIONS

Commonwealth LNG orders BH compressors to power next-gen LNG export facility
Commonwealth LNG
Commonwealth LNG has approved an order for six Baker Hughes refrigerant turbo compressors—critical to the liquefaction process—at its 9.5 million tonnes per annum LNG export facility under development in Cameron, Louisiana. These compressors will be driven by Baker Hughes’ LM9000 gas turbines, offering over 73 MW of power at 44 percent efficiency, enabling lower carbon intensity, fast installation, and easier maintenance. Technip Energies, tasked with engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC), will place the order and leverages its modular facility expertise to reduce construction risks. Commonwealth, together with Caturus Energy, forms the only independent, fully integrated U.S. natural gas-to-LNG export platform. [MDN: Commonwealth LNG is developing a 9.5 mtpa liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal project located near Cameron, Louisiana, that will export at least some M-U molecules.]

JEA Board approves plan to build natural gas plant to meet future energy needs
American Public Power Association
On August 26, the JEA Board of Directors unanimously approved plans to build a $1.57 billion combined cycle natural gas facility at the former St. Johns River Power Park site, delegating CEO Vickie Cavey to finalize an agreement with GE Vernova by month’s end to secure production. The plant, capable of generating up to 675 megawatts—enough to power 300,000 homes—will replace the aging Northside Generation Station Unit 3, slated for retirement by 2031. JEA cites improved reliability, efficiency, and long-term cost savings, along with local economic benefits, as reasons to build rather than purchase power from other utilities. [MDN: JEA is the largest municipal utility in Florida and one of the largest in the country, providing energy and water services to more than one million residents and businesses in Northeast Florida. M-U molecules flow to the Jacksonville area and will likely help feed this new power plant.]

NATIONAL

U.S. natural gas futures mixed in choppy session
Wall Street Journal
Natural gas futures end mixed with the Nymex September contract settling up 2 cents at $2.717/mmBtu ahead of tomorrow’s expiration and October gas slipping 0.6% to $2.790. “Near-term gas is looking to find some footing as September ends its days on the trading board but there is little in the fundamentals to support a bull run of any significant measure,” Tradition Energy’s Gary Cunningham says in a note. “For now the October contract should be range-bound between $2.75 and $2.85.” [MDN: Still in yucky territory. We need the price to be back above $3. It doesn’t look like that’s going to happen anytime soon.]

Oil price settles lower after rally
Bloomberg/Mia Gindis, Alex Longley
Oil prices fell after four straight sessions of gains, with West Texas Intermediate dropping 2.4% to $63.25 a barrel and Brent sliding 2.3% to $67.22. The decline reflected investor caution amid broader market jitters tied to President Trump’s efforts to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and his move to double tariffs on Indian imports in response to Russian crude purchases. However, traders remain skeptical that the tariffs will remain in place. Crude has stayed in a $62–$65 range through August as markets weigh OPEC+ supply increases and slowing demand, with the IEA warning of a potential record surplus next year. Trading slowed ahead of Labor Day. [MDN: We love where the price is right now and hope it remains there longer term.]

The U.S. now exports 30% of the energy it produces
Statista/Felix Richter
In 2024, U.S. energy production and exports hit record highs, with the nation generating 103 quadrillion British thermal units (BTU) of energy and exporting 31 quadrillion BTU, or 30 percent, mainly to Mexico, Canada, Asia, and Europe, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This surge reflects the long-term impact of the fracking boom, which began in the late 2000s and transformed the U.S. into the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas. However, a new U.S.-EU trade deal requiring the EU to purchase $250 billion annually in U.S. energy products from 2026–2028 faces skepticism, as 2024 exports totaled only $200 billion globally. [MDN: A couple of startling facts in this article (and chart). The first is that we exported 30% of the energy we produced last year. Amazing! Second is the angst over whether Europe can actually buy $250 billion worth of our energy exports when we don’t export that much. We have two thoughts on that: (1) This is a good problem to have, too much demand and not enough supply. (2) Just raise the price of our exports! That way, Europe can meet its commitment to pay us $250 billion/year, and we would have enough energy to export. See? Problem solved.]

Drilling improvements allow oil, gas production to rise as rig count falls
RBN Energy/Jason Lindquist
U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is reaching record highs despite a declining rig count, thanks to improved drilling efficiency and capital discipline by major producers. At RBN’s School of Energy Canada, experts noted that the oil-directed rig count has fallen due to weaker crude prices and higher global output, yet crude production has climbed to an all-time high near 13.5 MMb/d. Natural gas shows a similar trend, with output at a record 106 Bcf/d after rig activity stabilized and rebounded in key plays like the Haynesville. In the Permian Basin, crude output is projected to rise to 7.6 MMb/d by 2030, with dry gas reaching 26.7 Bcf/d, contingent on major new pipeline expansions scheduled for 2026. [MDN: We’ve pointed out the same thing in a number of posts—that even though rig counts are declining, production is the same or higher. The obvious conclusion is that the O&G industry is getting better at what it does.]

U.S. and Canadian markets ‘completely and inextricably intertwined’
RBN Energy/Jason Lindquist
At the School of Energy Conference in Calgary, RBN Energy CEO David Braziel emphasized the deep interdependence of the U.S. and Canadian energy markets, noting that despite being two countries, they function as a single integrated system. Over the past 15 years, U.S. crude oil production has more than doubled to over 13 MMb/d, while Canadian output has risen to 5.5 MMb/d, with crude flows from Canada to the U.S. doubling to 4.2 MMb/d. Similar trends exist in natural gas and NGLs, with both nations relying on each other to balance supply and demand, jointly shaping global energy influence. [MDN: Hmmm, this might be the one time we disagree with RBN’s experts. Although historically we’ve been one market, Canada has proven to be an untrustworthy partner and should be viewed with skepticism. We no longer look at the U.S./Canada as one O&G market. We don’t trust them anymore. They need to start paying for their own defense costs, too, instead of leaching off us.]

INTERNATIONAL

OPEC+ may unwind 1.65mm bpd of cuts at next meeting, analyst warns
Rigzone/Andreas Exarheas
OPEC+ faces growing pressure to unwind the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts when it meets on September 7, according to SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop, who noted “pockets of strength” in the oil market, such as backwardation in crude curves, low U.S. inventories, and Dubai crude trading at an unusual premium to Brent. Schieldrop suggested the cuts could be phased out over several months, paving the way for group-wide cuts in early 2026 to offset a projected surplus. A BMI report added that while OPEC+ may intervene if prices fall sharply, it is unlikely to return to prolonged deep cuts. [MDN: In other words, OPEC plans to flood the market with an extra 1.65 million barrels of oil per day in the coming months, which will keep prices low.]

Japan’s utilities cut fossil fuel electricity share to new lows
Reuters/Gavin Maguire
In the first half of 2025, Japan’s utility-scale electricity generation from fossil fuels fell below 60% for the first time, marking a milestone in its energy transition efforts. Cleaner sources—including solar, wind, bioenergy and resurgent nuclear power—produced a record 188 TWh of electricity, up 47% from the same period in 2019, and accounted for 41% of the power mix (versus 12% in 2012). Meanwhile, natural-gas output fell to its lowest first-half level since 2019 due to high prices, and coal generation, though slightly up, remained 9% below 2019 levels. If trends persist, clean energy may overtake fossil fuels by 2033 as Japan pursues its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 46% by 2030. [MDN: A word of advice to Japan—don’t put all your eggs in the unreliable renewable basket or you will rue the day. Better to concentrate on natural gas and nuclear for clean energy.]

Britain’s net-zero scheme is being derailed by opposition to solar and wind projects
Washington (DC) The Hill/Robert Bryce
Britain’s net-zero ambitions face their greatest challenge not from costs or political opposition, but from fierce resistance by rural landowners to solar and wind projects. Since January, nearly four dozen proposals have been rejected across England, Ireland, and Scotland, with objections citing harm to landscapes, farmland, wildlife, and property values. High-profile projects like the Calderdale Energy wind farm in West Yorkshire face massive public backlash, echoing a global trend of rural resistance tracked in renewable rejection databases. Similar disputes have arisen worldwide, showing that local land-use conflicts, rather than economics or politics, are the true constraint on renewable energy expansion. [MDN: Too funny. Rural landowners know that unreliable renewables are bad for the environment. City-dwelling gits don’t get it.]