MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Thu, Sep 18, 2025 [FREE ACCESS]

NATIONAL: WTI falls on stockpile, Fed moves; U.S. natural gas futures mixed ahead of storage data; DOJ urges Supreme Court to intervene in Boulder climate case; Gas turbine prices are up — and aren’t going down anytime soon; INTERNATIONAL: Slovakia and Hungary resist Trump bid to halt Russian energy; Analysts sum up mood at APPEC event; Italy’s Edison to buy U.S. LNG under 15-year deal with Shell; OPEC’s 2014 bid to tame U.S. shale failed – will 2025 be different?

NATIONAL

WTI falls on stockpile, Fed moves
Bloomberg/Mia Gindis, Alex Longley
Oil prices fell after a three-day rally as traders weighed U.S. stockpile data and the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point interest-rate cut, which included signals of two more reductions this year. West Texas Intermediate settled at $64.05 a barrel, down 0.7%, while Brent closed at $67.95. Although lower rates usually support energy demand, warnings of labor market weakness and a stronger dollar pressured prices. Crude inventories dropped sharply due to exports, but rising distillates added bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s refinery strikes and OPEC+ supply shifts kept prices confined to a narrow band, with growth risks and U.S. tariffs fueling concerns of a future glut. [MDN: The Fed is irresponsible. It should have been a half percentage point cut AT LEAST. Shame on them. And the media is doing its best to foment fear and distrust. At some point, the economy will take off like a rocket. Hold on when that happens.]

U.S. natural gas futures mixed ahead of storage data
Wall Street Journal
U.S. natural gas futures settled mixed, with the Nymex front month edging down ahead of Thursday’s storage report and winter months gaining. Analysts in a WSJ survey project a 78 Bcf weekly injection to 3,421 Bcf. “We continue to forecast total gas inventories to exceed 3.9 Tcf this fall,” including more than 350 Bcf in salt caverns, Clifton White and Francisco Blanch of Bank of America say in a report. High salt inventories limit the market’s ability to balance in the event of LNG feedgas demand disruptions, they note. Bank of America lowered its 4Q Henry Hub price estimate to $3/mmBtu and kept its 2026 forecast at $4 on robust LNG demand, “but early winter gas production growth could risk lower 2026 gas prices.” Nymex gas for October delivery slipped 0.1% to $3.100/mmBtu. [MDN: Hey, it’s $3.10 and above $3, which makes us happy. :-)]

DOJ urges Supreme Court to intervene in Boulder climate case
Energy in Depth – Climate & Environment/Kyle Kohli
The U.S. Department of Justice recently filed an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to hear the Boulder, Colorado, climate lawsuit, calling the Colorado Supreme Court’s May decision to allow the case to proceed “manifestly wrong.” The DOJ argues that Boulder’s claims—based on state law but challenging fossil fuel companies over climate impacts—are unconstitutional and should be preempted by federal law. If left standing, the DOJ warns, localities across the country could sue almost anyone in the world for contributing to climate change. [MDN: We think it’s a pretty safe bet that the Supremes will do the right thing and overturn this nonsensical lawfare in Colorado. Everywhere else these same types of lawsuits have been brought, they have been tossed by the courts. It’s time to end this madness.]

Gas turbine prices are up — and aren’t going down anytime soon
Latitude Media/Lisa Martine Jenkins
Gas turbine installation costs in the U.S. have surged, with combined-cycle gas turbine projects due in 2030-31 now “routinely” exceeding $2,000 per kilowatt—up as much as 75% from recent figures between $1,116 and $1,427/kW for near-term deployment. The rise is driven by high demand from electrification, onshoring, and data center growth; supply chain bottlenecks; rising labor and material costs; and OEMs requiring large reservation fees for future delivery slots. Because of these pressures, the report concludes prices aren’t likely to decline in the short-to-mid term, complicating project planning, utility bills, and efforts to meet electricity demand as older plants retire. [MDN: The simple fact is that there is high demand for turbines, and a very few companies that can manufacture them. It’s not like a new company can set up overnight and begin manufacturing these huge, complex, intricate pieces of machinery. It takes years and a high level of engineering expertise. More demand with the same supply equals high prices, and that’s just what we are seeing.]

INTERNATIONAL

Slovakia and Hungary resist Trump bid to halt Russian energy
Bloomberg/D.Hornak, A.Gergely
Slovakia and Hungary pushed back against U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for EU nations to cut Russian oil and gas imports, stressing they need secure alternatives first. Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Sakova said sufficient infrastructure and transmission capacity must be in place before fully diversifying, warning that a sudden cutoff would harm the economy. She noted U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright understood Slovakia’s position but urged more U.S. energy projects in Europe. Hungary’s Gergely Gulyas reiterated his country would veto EU measures threatening its energy security. Both nations, historically reliant on Russian supplies, have begun diversification but remain cautious. [MDN: Although the headline would mislead you, Slovakia and Hungary are willing to end Russian energy imports, but only when secure alternatives are in place. It would be irresponsible just to cut it off now and starve their people and businesses of the gas (and oil) they need and use. We understand their position.]

Analysts sum up mood at APPEC event
Rigzone/Andreas Exarheas
At APPEC 2025 in Singapore, sentiment on crude markets was described as overwhelmingly bearish, with Macquarie strategists forecasting surpluses of around three million barrels per day in late 2025 and early 2026 due to rising output from Brazil, the U.S., Guyana, and steadier supply from Libya and Nigeria. While Chinese strategic reserve buying has supported physical markets this year, Macquarie warned that oversupply will persist even if purchases continue. Weakness in North Sea cargo markets further fueled bearishness, with Brent spreads softening. Sparta Commodities’ Neil Crosby echoed the outlook, noting flat prices remain volatile but crude appears weaker than products. [MDN: APPEC is the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, featuring news, analysis, and interviews with key stakeholders in the energy industry. It was held in Singapore by S&P Global last week. It helps to see the broader (global) picture of what people are thinking. As this article points out, with respect to oil production, analysts think we have a glut coming and it won’t be good for prices.]

Italy’s Edison to buy U.S. LNG under 15-year deal with Shell
OilPrice.com/Tsvetana Paraskova
Edison, part of France’s EDF Group, has signed a 15-year agreement with Shell International Trading Middle East to purchase 0.7 million tons per year of U.S. LNG starting in 2028, enhancing Italy’s energy security and supply diversification. The deal, on a Free on Board basis, allows Edison to manage shipping with its own LNG carriers. Edison, which already imports about 14 billion cubic meters annually from Qatar, Libya, Algeria, Azerbaijan, and the U.S., said the agreement strengthens its long-term portfolio flexibility. The move also aligns with EU efforts to increase U.S. LNG imports and builds on Edison’s existing regasification infrastructure. [MDN: Good. More of our molecules are heading to Europe.]

OPEC’s 2014 bid to tame U.S. shale failed – will 2025 be different?
Forbes/Gaurav Sharma
OPEC+ has been steadily increasing oil output in 2025, restoring barrels cut since 2023, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia driving production higher despite record non-OPEC supply from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Norway. The group risks oversupplying the market, echoing its failed 2014 strategy to undercut U.S. shale, which ultimately grew stronger. While Saudi Arabia remains the only true swing producer, other OPEC+ members lack flexibility. Today’s shale sector is more consolidated, efficient, and financially resilient, suggesting it can better withstand price drops. With global demand growth lagging supply, another surplus and lower crude prices appear inevitable. [MDN: In other words, no, OPEC+ will fail this time as it did a decade ago.]