MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Fri, Nov 7, 2025 [FREE ACCESS]

NATIONAL: US LNG producers ink near record contract volumes, even as fees climb; USA shale operators defy $60 oil to keep increasing output; The Rockefeller-funded climate crusade on the road to nowhere; Energy Secretary Chris Wright has his way with the IEA; INTERNATIONAL: Oil falls as Saudi price cuts signal market gloom; Poland in talks to import more LNG from US to supply Ukraine, Slovakia; What does and doesn’t drive oil prices.

NATIONAL

US LNG producers ink near record contract volumes, even as fees climb
Reuters/Curtis Williams
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developers are having a near-record year for binding sales contracts, signing 29.5 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) in the first 10 months of 2025. This surge is driven by buyers diversifying away from Russian energy and securing long-term supply, despite the industry facing rising construction costs and increasing liquefaction fees. A flurry of new projects will add 61.5 mtpa to U.S. capacity, leading the IEA to predict a potential global glut and lower prices by 2030. However, some developers remain bullish, citing strong long-term demand growth from data centers and Asia’s shift from coal, and buyers continue to lock in new contracts for supply and trading. [MDN: Lots of new contracts being signed. However, don’t believe a thing the IEA says about a coming “glut.” The organization is corrupt and a congenital liar.]

USA shale operators defy $60 oil to keep increasing output
Bloomberg/David Wethe, Kevin Crowley
US shale producers, including Exxon Mobil, Diamondback Energy, and Coterra Energy, are moving forward with plans to increase output, despite oil prices near the $60 mark, setting the stage for a record global supply glut next year. This resilience stems from years of technological advancements in drilling and pumping, which have significantly enhanced efficiency and lowered break-even costs for producers, such as Diamondback’s dropping to about $37 a barrel. Exxon is leading the charge with a major increase in its 2025 production guidance, driven by new fracking techniques. Analysts suggest that given current incentives, oil prices will likely need to fall into the low $50-a-barrel range before the market forces US producers to curb their continued growth. [MDN: It wasn’t all that long ago we read that WTI must be around $65/barrel or shale drillers would not make a profit and quit drilling. Now we see that was not accurate. Some drillers can turn a profit in the $30s! Current prices, in the high $50s and $60s, means our drillers are doing just fine.]

The Rockefeller-funded climate crusade on the road to nowhere
Energy in Depth – Climate & Environment
The article summarizes a decade-long, Rockefeller-funded legal crusade against the American energy industry, labeling it a “decade of defeat” with “zero wins” in court. This effort, which began with a New York Attorney General subpoena, is characterized as a billionaire-funded political campaign disguised as a grassroots push. Documents revealed that the Rockefeller Family Fund and Rockefeller Brothers Fund financed media and provided the “legal playbook” for the lawsuits, which alleged companies had secret knowledge of climate change (“#ExxonKnew”). Courts across the nation have consistently rejected these suits, citing weak legal theories and political motivations. After numerous courtroom flops, the article notes that activists are pivoting to new legislative strategies, such as lobbying for “Climate Superfund” laws, after the original litigation proved to be a “dead end.” [MDN: The Rockefellers need to be investigated and their so-called nonpartisan charities need to be exposed and taxed. Let’s hope the Republicans don’t miss this opportunity to fix what has become a cancer on this country.]

Energy Secretary Chris Wright has his way with the IEA
Forbes/David Blackmon
A new International Energy Agency (IEA) report, published November 5, appears to reverse its recent advocacy role, a move consistent with pressure from U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright. In July, Wright threatened to withdraw significant U.S. funding if the IEA didn’t reform its forecasting methods, which he criticized for being politicized. The controversy centered on the IEA’s use of the aspirational “Announced Pledges Scenario (APS),” which forecasted Peak Oil Demand before 2030, a prediction Wright called “nonsensical.” The new report concedes by eliminating the APS and restoring the more reality-based “Current Policies Scenario (CPS)” as a main exploratory model. Although the IEA attributes the changes to market factors, these shifts align perfectly with Wright’s demands and are likely to secure continued U.S. monetary support for the agency. [MDN: We would still defund the corrupt IEA, but at least they are (begrudgingly) changing their tune.]

INTERNATIONAL

Oil falls as Saudi price cuts signal market gloom
Bloomberg/M. Gindis, A. Longley, W. Kubzansky
Oil prices continued to fall, with WTI settling near $59, after Saudi Arabia lowered its December crude price for Asia to an 11-month low, a move signaling bearish confidence and the expectation of a global oversupply starting next year. This decline is exacerbated by abundant supplies, narrowing prompt spreads, and US shale companies planning slight production increases. In contrast, the market for refined products remains strong; diesel and gasoil futures hit their highest levels since July, bolstered by concerns over Russian supply disruptions and diminishing global refining capacity, which is currently lending some support to crude prices. [MDN: West Texas Intermediate for December delivery fell 0.29% to settle at $59.43 a barrel. Brent for January dropped 0.22% to settle at $63.38 a barrel. [MDN: We’re still in good and stable territory. No surprises.]

Poland in talks to import more LNG from US to supply Ukraine, Slovakia
Reuters/Marek Strzelecki, Anna Hirtenstein
Poland is negotiating an agreement to import U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) for distribution to Ukraine and Slovakia, further strengthening European reliance on American energy. The Polish energy ministry confirmed the talks, which aim to boost the region’s energy security. Officials expect to announce a joint declaration soon, with subsequent discussions on supplying Slovakia with potentially 4 to 5 billion cubic meters of gas annually, matching its yearly consumption. This deal is part of a broader U.S. push to increase energy exports to Europe, helping the EU shift away from Russian supplies; the U.S. currently accounts for around 55% of the EU’s LNG. This initiative is seen by U.S. officials as a major opportunity to reshape Europe’s energy landscape permanently. [MDN: This is good news. More of our molecules, including (potentially) M-U molecules, will head to Poland and beyond.]

What does and doesn’t drive oil prices
Forbes/Michael Lynch
Oil price fluctuations are driven by a complex interplay of short-term market speculation, where traders’ views often diverge from long-term economic fundamentals, as noted by John Maynard Keynes. Historically, actors like the Texas Railroad Commission and OPEC have attempted to set prices, but the latter’s power waned as demand dropped and it shifted to managing production quotas. While political motives (like the Arab-Israeli conflict) and exporters’ fiscal needs are often cited, market analysis suggests these are usually secondary to market fundamentals, such as the supply/demand balance and inventory changes. The concept of marginal cost of production setting a price floor is complicated by the non-competitive nature of the oil market and constantly improving extraction technology. Ultimately, while many variables interact, market fundamentals are the strongest long-term determinant, and observers must beware of mistaking correlation for causation. [MDN: A deep look at factors driving oil prices from a long-time energy economist.]