MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Wed, Nov 26, 2025 [FREE ACCESS]

OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Georgia Power’s large load pipeline shrinks by 6 GW; NATIONAL: Coming wave of LNG supplies more likely to produce a rising tide than a cataclysm; U.S. feedgas demand set to soar by the end of the year; JPMorgan projects Brent crude at $57 a barrel, WTI at $53 in 2027; INTERNATIONAL: Oil closes the day near month low; OPEC+ again faces thorny issue of how much it can pump; Aramco makes 17 deals with ‘major’ USA cos worth $30B+; IEA publishes climate era’s obituary; Climategate turns 16 – never forget.

OTHER U.S. REGIONS

Georgia Power’s large load pipeline shrinks by 6 GW
Utility Dive
Georgia Power’s pipeline of large load projects shrank by a net 6 GW to 50.9 GW in the third quarter due to project exits, though confirmed customer commitments increased to 28 projects totaling 11 GW. While the utility highlighted that 18 of these committed projects have broken ground, indicating tangible progress, Public Service Commission staff warned of potential financial risks for residential customers. Testimony suggests that much of the planned generation buildout targets speculative data center demand rather than executed contracts. Staff noted the data center segment is currently underperforming, with 33 projects recently removed from the pipeline, raising concerns about stranded costs. [MDN: Less opportunity for M-U molecules for Georgia power plants. However, a more realistic view of what will and won’t get built is a good thing. One of the main criticisms of data center projections is that they are unrealistic. We need to get them as realistic as possible.]

NATIONAL

Coming wave of LNG supplies more likely to produce a rising tide than a cataclysm
RBN Energy
Despite warnings from major CEOs that surging U.S. and Qatari LNG supply could crash markets, this article argues oversupply fears are exaggerated. Rather than a destructive “wave,” the increase will likely resemble a manageable “rising tide.” Mitigating factors include the slow ramp-up of new facilities and the fact that global production rarely hits full nameplate capacity. Furthermore, healthy price spreads and historical precedents—like Qatar’s previous expansion—suggest widespread cargo cancellations are unlikely. The article contends the 2020 market collapse was a pandemic anomaly, not a structural predictor, and that growing demand should absorb the surplus without catastrophic economic fallout. [MDN: An excellent treatise on why more supplies of LNG are not going to crash the entire natural gas market.]

U.S. feedgas demand set to soar by the end of the year
RBN Energy
U.S. LNG feedgas demand remains exceptionally strong, averaging 18.4 Bcf/d last week as terminals operate at or above contracted capacities. While a minor 0.3 Bcf/d weekly drop occurred due to slight intake reductions at Sabine Pass and Calcasieu Pass, and a brief outage at Freeport Train 1, operations remain at peak levels. Since the start of the year, demand has risen by over 4 Bcf/d, driven by expansions and the new Plaquemines LNG terminal reaching near-full capacity. With momentum continuing, feedgas demand is projected to climb further before the year ends. [MDN: This is great news for M-U molecules!]

JPMorgan projects Brent crude at $57 a barrel, WTI at $53 in 2027
Reuters
JPMorgan forecasts Brent crude dropping to $57 and WTI to $53 per barrel by 2027, while maintaining steady 2026 estimates of $58 and $54. The bank projects global oil demand will grow by 0.9 million barrels per day (bpd) through 2026, accelerating to 1.2 million bpd in 2027. However, global supply is expected to outpace demand threefold in 2025 and 2026, driven largely by non-OPEC+ offshore projects and shale momentum. Despite potential oversupply, JPMorgan suggests the market could remain relatively balanced if demand matches non-OPEC+ growth and the OPEC+ alliance holds production steady. [MDN: While we won’t completely ignore this prediction, because JPMorgan is the world’s largest bank by market capitalization and can’t be ignored, these kinds of predictions are often wrong. Just sayin’.]

INTERNATIONAL

Oil closes the day near month low
Bloomberg
Oil prices dropped to a one-month low, with West Texas Intermediate settling near $58 a barrel, driven by signs of progress in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Reports that Kyiv agreed to terms of a revised US-backed proposal fueled expectations that Russian crude supplies will remain online. Despite this optimism, analysts warn that volatility persists as key issues remain unresolved and fighting continues. An end to the conflict could increase Russian oil flows, exacerbating an anticipated global oversupply next year. Meanwhile, President Trump stated he looks forward to meeting with leaders only once a final deal is secured. [MDN: WTI for January delivery dropped 1.5% to settle at $57.95. Brent for January settlement fell 1.4% to settle at $62.48 a barrel. Still close or at $60 per barrel. We’re in good territory.]

OPEC+ again faces thorny issue of how much it can pump
Bloomberg
OPEC+ nations are meeting this weekend to address the contentious issue of members’ maximum sustainable production capacities for 2027 quotas. This review aims to align targets with reality, as some countries struggle to increase supply while a looming global surplus threatens to push crude prices below current $60 levels. The assessment creates internal friction, having previously spurred Angola’s exit, as members like the UAE seek higher limits while others face constraints. Although eight nations recently paused production hikes for early 2026, analysts anticipate the group will maintain a “watch-and-wait” approach regarding further policy changes until geopolitical risks become clearer. [MDN: You would think that sooner or later this cabal of thug dictators would break up and each country would go its own way. Somehow, they have been disciplined for decades and remain so. Too bad.]

Aramco makes 17 deals with ‘major’ USA cos worth $30B+
Rigzone
Saudi Aramco recently announced 17 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) and agreements with U.S. companies valued at over $30 billion. Unveiled during the 2025 U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum in Washington, D.C., attended by President Donald Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, these deals build upon $90 billion in previous agreements from May. The collaborations span sectors including Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), financial services, and procurement, featuring partnerships with firms like MidOcean Energy and Halliburton. CEO Amin H. Nasser emphasized that these strategic alliances aim to bolster growth and innovation while reinforcing the historic economic ties between the two nations. [MDN: We don’t like foreign countries, particularly OPEC thug dictators, buying up American assets. The Saudis have pledged over $1 trillion of purchases in this country. That should be a big, fat, red stoplight in our book. On this issue, we disagree with President Trump.]

IEA publishes climate era’s obituary
CO2 Coalition
Vijay Jayaraj argues the “climate industrial complex” is crumbling as the International Energy Agency’s 2025 Outlook acknowledges continued growth in global fossil fuel demand. Contrary to Western net-zero goals, emerging economies like India and Indonesia are prioritizing economic prosperity over decarbonization. These nations are driving a structural shift in energy markets, significantly increasing coal, oil, and gas consumption to power industrialization and ensure grid reliability. Jayaraj contends that because renewables lack necessary consistency, developing countries will continue leveraging hydrocarbons for development, effectively ignoring Western “carbon-free” ideologies to avoid economic stagnation and energy deprivation. [MDN: The startling thing is that IEA has completely changed, a 180-degree turnaround, with its predictions about the use of fossil energy. It was either get real about the numbers or face complete defunding by the Trump administration. We still don’t trust the IEA, but at least they’re getting closer to reality once again.]

Climategate turns 16 – never forget
MasterResource
The article, “Climategate Turns 16: Never Forget,” by Robert Bradley Jr. marks the 16th anniversary of the 2009 “Climategate” scandal involving hacked emails from the University of East Anglia. It highlights Fred Pearce’s 2010 book and Guardian editorial, which characterized the event as a “PR disaster” for science that revealed attempts to withhold data and block skepticism. The piece critiques the defensive reactions of involved scientists like Michael Mann and Phil Jones, contrasting them with calls for greater data transparency and public scrutiny. Bradley argues that, years later, public trust in “climate-model alarmism” is declining as predictions fail to materialize. [MDN: The whole global warming thing was a hoax from the beginning. Before it was global warming, it was global cooling. The fantastical predictions made by these “scientists” NEVER materialize. That alone should tip you off to the scam. Yet many still believe the hoax. You can’t fix stupid.]