MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Fri, Dec 5, 2025 [FREE ACCESS]

OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Glenfarne, POSCO finalize strategic Alaska LNG partnership; Macquarie places 20-year order from Texas LNG; Report shows Newsom prioritizes Beijing over Bakersfield; L.A. kicks coal as it fires up the world’s largest green hydrogen power plant; NATIONAL: Natural gas futures extend gains as U.S. grows cold; $5 psychological threshold still a relevant driver for natgas; Natural gas price forecast – $5.09 new high; New tool signals best time to buy business energy; Top journal retracts study predicting catastrophic climate toll; INTERNATIONAL: Crude settles higher despite Saudi price cut; Analysts see ‘5-10 years of decent growth’ for oil demand; There’s no green backlash, EU climate chief insists.

OTHER U.S. REGIONS

Glenfarne, POSCO finalize strategic Alaska LNG partnership
Glenfarne
Glenfarne Alaska LNG, LLC and POSCO International Corporation have finalized a strategic partnership to develop the Alaska LNG Project, the only federally authorized LNG export facility on the U.S. Pacific Coast. Announced in Washington, D.C., this agreement represents the project’s first Heads of Agreement (HOA), establishing a 20-year deal for POSCO to purchase 1 million tonnes per annum of LNG. Furthermore, POSCO will provide steel for the project’s 807-mile pipeline and contribute capital investment. This collaboration highlights strong Asian support for the venture, adding to Glenfarne’s existing commitments of 11 MTPA from major buyers in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. [MDN: This coming LNG export facility in Alaska is a whole lot closer to Asian markets than exporters on the Gulf Coast. This is a good development.]

Macquarie places 20-year order from Texas LNG
Rigzone
Macquarie Energy has signed a definitive 20-year agreement to purchase 0.5 million metric tons per annum of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Glenfarne Group’s Texas LNG project. This deal, alongside prior contracts with Gunvor Group and EQT Corp, moves the Brownsville-based development closer to a final investment decision. The agreement follows the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s recent reauthorization of the project and an extension of its operational deadline to 2029. With Department of Energy export approval secured and an engineering contract awarded to Kiewit, Texas LNG continues to solidify its commercial and regulatory standing. [MDN: Glenfarne is in the news for a second time today on MDN. Texas LNG is an important project to the M-U with EQT signing a deal to send molecules to the plant.]

Report shows Newsom prioritizes Beijing over Bakersfield
Energy in Depth
A new analysis by USC and UC Berkeley warns that California faces a severe fuel infrastructure breakdown, with gasoline prices potentially doubling by 2026 due to refinery closures. The report contends that Governor Gavin Newsom’s policies have gutted in-state production, forcing reliance on foreign imports—specifically from China—to meet demand. This dependence threatens national security by compromising military fuel supplies and paradoxically increases global emissions through transport. While recent measures like SB 237 offer limited relief, the authors argue that only restoring coastal production and preserving existing refineries can avert a cascading supply failure throughout the West Coast. [MDN: Newsom’s policies have been a complete disaster for Cali. The state is unsalvageable. If you live there, move! It’s time to get out before it completely collapses economically.]

L.A. kicks coal as it fires up the world’s largest green hydrogen power plant
Forbes
Los Angeles has officially eliminated coal from its power supply, a major step toward achieving 100% carbon-free energy by 2035. Mayor Karen Bass announced that the Intermountain Power Project in Utah has ceased coal operations and will now generate electricity using a blend of natural gas and green hydrogen stored in a massive on-site salt cavern. Initially using a 30% hydrogen mix, the facility aims to eventually run 100% on green hydrogen. This project, currently the world’s largest operational green hydrogen initiative, has helped shift L.A.’s energy mix from 50% coal in 2003 to 60% carbon-free today. [MDN: This so-called green hydrogen plant, which is costing at least 10X more than the coal-fired electricity, will NEVER be at 100% hydrogen. Remember, you read it here first.]

NATIONAL

Natural gas futures extend gains as U.S. grows cold
Wall Street Journal
Natural gas futures rise to close above $5 for the first time since 2022, as cold temperatures boost demand for heating. “Highs will continue to come in well below the average for this time of year through the 10 day forecast,” Mizuho’s Robert Yawger writes. A smaller-than-expected draw in U.S. natgas stock last week wasn’t enough to curb momentum. Investors saw “an opportunity to push higher with a cold forecast that runs deep into the calendar,” Yawger says. The front-month contract rises 1.4% to $5.063/mmBtu. [MDN: Wow! What a ride. Two months ago we struggled to get above $3, and now we’re sittin’ pretty above $5. Enjoy it while it lasts.]

$5 psychological threshold still a relevant driver for natgas
Rigzone
Energy analyst Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics Group identifies the $5.00 psychological threshold as a key driver for natural gas, with January contracts recently testing this level. Supported by strong technicals and forecasts for the coldest December since 2010, Rubin predicts a potential shift from storage surplus to deficit by Christmas. While short-term consolidation is expected, EBW forecasts a volatile upward trend over the coming weeks due to stalled production and robust LNG exports. Additionally, Pepperstone strategist Dilin Wu attributes recent price gains to record exports and rising electricity demand from AI data centers. [MDN: Anything can happen, but it sure “feels” like the price of natgas will stay on the higher side for the foreseeable future. Time will tell.]

Natural gas price forecast – $5.09 new high
FX Empire
Natural gas prices extended their bullish trend, reaching a new high of $5.09 on Thursday while successfully validating the former March ceiling of $4.90 as support. The market demonstrated a clear structure of higher highs and lows, heavily influenced by extended channel lines. Prices are now approaching the critical 200% extended channel line and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5.28. A weekly close above $4.91 appears likely, which would confirm a long-term breakout. While buyers remain in control, reaching the Fibonacci zone could increase the risk of a sharp correction or sideways movement after this extended volatility stretch. [MDN: Gas trader Bruce Powers weighs in on where the price is likely to go next, which is higher.]

New tool signals best time to buy business energy
Bid On Energy
Bid On Energy has launched Commercial Energy Market Indicators, a new interactive tool designed to help businesses optimize their electricity and natural gas purchasing. Announced on December 4, 2025, this dashboard simplifies complex market data, aggregating real-time signals, demand charts, and price drivers like weather and fuel supply into an easy-to-read format. It aims to provide small to enterprise-level organizations with the transparency needed to analyze trends and identify the best times to lock in rates. By offering actionable insights previously available only to large utilities, the tool empowers businesses to navigate volatility and negotiate supply agreements with confidence. [MDN: Seems like an interesting new innovation for businesses to better buy electricity and natural gas.]

Top journal retracts study predicting catastrophic climate toll
New York (NY) Times
In April 2024, the journal Nature published a study predicting a catastrophic 62 percent drop in global economic output by 2100 due to climate change. However, the journal recently retracted the paper after critics identified data errors—specifically regarding Uzbekistan—that significantly skewed results. Correcting these anomalies reduced the projected damage to 23 percent, aligning with previous estimates. While the authors plan to revise and resubmit, the retraction has sparked debate among economists about maintaining scientific credibility. Critics argue that while climate risks are severe, exaggerated findings undermine public trust and the integrity of climate economics. [MDN: What is remarkable is that this exercise in real journalism happened at the New York Times! We can’t remember the last time the Times did real unbiased reporting. Don’t get used to it, though.]

INTERNATIONAL

Crude settles higher despite Saudi price cut
Bloomberg
Oil prices climbed in volatile trading, with WTI settling just under $60 per barrel, as geopolitical risks momentarily outweighed concerns over a deepening global supply glut. Market support stemmed from stalled US-Russia peace talks regarding Ukraine, ensuring continued sanctions, and potential US military strikes in Venezuela that could disrupt exports. Conversely, bearish signals remain dominant as Saudi Arabia cut its flagship crude prices to Asia to their lowest levels since 2021. With crude down roughly 17% this year amid booming output from the Americas and OPEC+, the International Energy Agency predicts a record surplus by 2026, suggesting the long-term price trajectory remains downward. [MDN: Don’t believe anything IEA says. That’s our advice. WTI for January delivery rose 1.2% to settle at $59.67 a barrel, while Brent for February settlement climbed 0.94% to settle at $63.26 a barrel.]

Analysts see ‘5-10 years of decent growth’ for oil demand
Rigzone
Morningstar analysts project global oil demand will peak at 108 million barrels per day in 2032 before declining to 96 million by 2050. Consequently, they upgraded their midcycle oil price forecast to $65 per barrel through 2034, anticipating a surge above $100 per barrel in the 2040s. The report notes that electrification only threatens specific sectors. Separately, J.P. Morgan reported that global oil demand averaged 105 million barrels per day in early November 2025; this reflects modest year-over-year growth driven by U.S. gasoline consumption and Chinese logistics, despite falling slightly short of internal growth projections. [MDN: Contrary to the fantasies of Big Green, EVs are not replacing oil-based internal combustion engines anytime soon. Oil is here for the long term.]

There’s no green backlash, EU climate chief insists
POLITICO
EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra rejects the narrative that Europe’s green agenda is failing, labeling reports of a backlash a major misconception. Despite political pressure from right-wing factions and industry to weaken standards, Hoekstra insists the new 2040 climate goal represents an acceleration of ambition. He argues the “winning formula” involves balancing climate action with economic competitiveness and independence. Additionally, Hoekstra defends the EU’s carbon border tax, dismissing public criticism from emerging economies as a diplomatic tactic, claiming that private discussions reveal these nations acknowledge the tax’s actual impact is minimal. [MDN: Never heard of this guy, but he’s delusional if he thinks the Big Green agenda in Europe is not crashing and burning.]