MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Tue, Jan 6, 2026 [FREE ACCESS]

OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Trump administration sues Calif. cities over natural gas bans; NATIONAL: U.S. natural gas extends losses on milder weather outlook; Foreign billionaires are investing in American energy lawsuits; Why the Boulder climate case is so dangerous and SCOTUS must step in; Top 10 energy prognostications for 2026 – Year of the Horse; INTERNATIONAL: Oil settles higher as US pressures Venezuela; Crude oil prices fell in 2025 amid oversupply; 2026 oil market will not be about Venezuela; Five energy market trends to track in 2026, the year of the glut; Trump to help oil companies ‘take back’ some of the billions Venezuela owes them.

OTHER U.S. REGIONS

Trump administration sues Calif. cities over natural gas bans
San Jose (CA) Mercury News
The Trump administration has filed lawsuits against the California cities of Morgan Hill and Petaluma, challenging local ordinances that ban natural gas infrastructure in new construction. Federal officials argue these “all-electric” mandates violate the Energy Policy and Conservation Act by preempting federal authority over appliance energy standards. The administration contends that such bans restrict consumer choice and increase energy costs, while local leaders defend the measures as essential for meeting climate goals and reducing carbon emissions. This legal action marks a significant escalation in the federal government’s efforts to dismantle local environmental regulations that conflict with its pro-fossil fuel energy agenda. [MDN: Finally! We’re getting some challenge of the plethora of illegal laws passed by municipalities (and states) that ban natural gas. It’s about darned time.]

NATIONAL

U.S. natural gas extends losses on milder weather outlook
Wall Street Journal
U.S. natural gas futures fell for a fourth consecutive day, settling down 2.6% at $3.523/mmBtu. The decline follows weekend weather models that removed significant cold from the early January outlook. Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics noted that this “weather collapse” has fundamentally shifted the Q1 2026 market outlook. While Rubin suggests a cold snap in late January could still trigger a rally, he warns that “bulls will run out of time” if heating demand doesn’t recover before the March contract takes over in three weeks. [MDN: We’re still in the mid-$3s, which is good. Any lower is not good.]

Foreign billionaires are investing in American energy lawsuits
Institute for Energy Research
Third-party litigation funding (TPLF) has evolved into a multibillion-dollar industry where foreign investors exploit tax loopholes to fund U.S. lawsuits tax-free. The energy sector is a primary target, facing a surge in climate and intellectual property litigation backed by anonymous foreign capital, including sovereign wealth funds and adversarial entities. This practice raises significant national security concerns, as seen in ExxonMobil’s 2025 countersuit alleging that foreign-backed funding was used to weaponize the courts for competitive advantage. Ultimately, TPLF allows external actors to harass domestic firms and advance geopolitical agendas, necessitating urgent congressional action to close tax loopholes and ensure judicial transparency. [MDN: This is a foreign attack on our country no different from troops arriving on our shores. Wise up! Stop this invasion!]

Why the Boulder climate case is so dangerous and SCOTUS must step in
RealClearEnergy
This article argues that climate litigation against fossil fuel companies is counterproductive and economically dangerous. The author asserts that oil, gas, and coal remain essential, providing 80% of our energy and powering the AI revolution while renewables struggle to meet rising demand. Suing producers for climate damages is viewed as a “regressive tax” that inflates consumer costs without offering viable energy alternatives. Proponents of “Energy Realism” suggest that because climate change is a global issue, these legal battles belong in federal courts rather than state courts. Ultimately, the piece advocates for technological innovation over litigation to ensure national energy security. [MDN: Excellent insights into the importance of the Boulder (CO) climate lawsuit.]

Top 10 energy prognostications for 2026 – Year of the Horse
RBN Energy
The RBN Energy article “Top 10 Energy Prognostications 2026 – Year of the Horse” describes a shift toward pragmatism driven by physics, economics, and politics, as the energy market experiences a renewed focus on fossil fuels. The ten predictions for 2026 are: (1) crude oil prices will remain stable despite geopolitical shifts; (2) U.S. oil production growth will moderate due to capital discipline; (3) natural gas demand will surge as power generation and LNG exports expand; (4) Henry Hub prices will see higher volatility; (5) NGL production, particularly from the Permian, will reach record levels; (6) ethane demand will rise alongside new petrochemical capacity; (7) the propane market will remain oversupplied; (8) LNG export capacity will face delays but continue its upward trajectory; (9) energy infrastructure projects will benefit from a friendlier regulatory environment; and (10) the energy transition will pivot toward “all-of-the-above” strategies that prioritize reliability and affordability over rapid decarbonization. This outlook suggests that 2026 will be a year of relief for traditional energy markets as pragmatic policies take center stage. [MDN: Some excellent insights and predictions from the experts at RBN. We encourage you to click and read the full article while it’s free and open.]

INTERNATIONAL

Oil settles higher as US pressures Venezuela
Bloomberg
Oil prices rose slightly, with West Texas Intermediate settling above $58, following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces. While the U.S. intends to maintain export pressure and pursue “total access” to Venezuelan reserves, the immediate impact on global crude futures remains limited due to a prevailing market glut and Venezuela’s diminished global output. While oil company shares climbed on prospects of rebuilding local infrastructure, analysts suggest any supply disruptions can be easily offset by other producers. Instead, traders are closely monitoring potential geopolitical retaliation from Russia and China as the U.S. maintains its naval blockade. [MDN: WTI for February climbed 1.7% to settle at $58.32 a barrel, while Brent for March rose 1.7% to settle at $61.76 a barrel. Creeping back into the $60s.]

Crude oil prices fell in 2025 amid oversupply
U.S. Energy Information Administration – Today in Energy
In 2025, crude oil prices trended downward as global supply significantly outpaced demand, with Brent crude falling from $79 per barrel in January to a multi-year low of $63 by December. This decline was driven by slowing economic activity, a contraction in U.S. GDP, and concerns over escalating international tariffs. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe providing temporary support, OPEC+ production increases led to massive inventory builds in the second half of the year. While China’s strategic stockpiling mitigated some losses by absorbing excess supply, the annual average price hit a post-2020 low of $69 per barrel. [MDN: Oil in the $60s is just fine. Sure, some producers will pull back at those prices. So what? There are plenty of companies that can turn a profit with oil in the $60s.]

2026 oil market will not be about Venezuela
Rigzone
In 2026, the global oil market will be defined by OPEC+ production decisions rather than Venezuelan output. SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop argues that OPEC+ must balance price stability against market share, potentially requiring a 3.5 million barrel-per-day cut to offset weakening demand. While Venezuela possesses the world’s largest reserves, years of corruption and decaying infrastructure have severely limited its export capacity. Experts suggest that while the U.S. remains interested in reinvestment, the astronomical costs of extracting heavy crude and renovating decrepit facilities make a significant production surge unlikely in the near term despite political interest. [MDN: We’d say this is probably accurate. While we have liberated that country (hopefully), that doesn’t mean oil will restart flowing overnight. It’s going to take time and investment.]

Five energy market trends to track in 2026, the year of the glut
Reuters
In 2026, the energy sector will face a significant supply glut, primarily driven by a surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production from the United States and Qatar. While oil prices may soften due to oversupply, diesel remains an exception, with high profit margins sustained by geopolitical tensions and limited refining capacity. Major oil companies are responding to this near-term downturn by slashing budgets, yet they remain long-term bullish, investing heavily in future exploration. Meanwhile, renewable energy growth has slowed due to policy shifts, but falling costs and rising electricity demand from data centers ensure its continued expansion. [MDN: A doom-and-gloom prediction about LNG from a commentator writing for Reuters. We simply don’t believe it. But, this line of reasoning is out there and you need to know what’s being said because traders often buy into this bullcrapus.]

Trump to help oil companies ‘take back’ some of the billions Venezuela owes them
Forbes
In a dramatic escalation of the Monroe Doctrine, U.S. Delta Force operators reportedly captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife during a night raid. President Trump announced plans for the U.S. to “run” the nation and revitalize its collapsed oil industry without taxpayer expense, instead leveraging American oil giants like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips to reclaim seized assets. This move aims to displace Russian, Iranian, and Chinese influence while restoring Venezuela’s output. However, success depends on navigating $100 billion in necessary infrastructure investment, unresolved legal debts, and complex geopolitical shifts involving OPEC and regional energy security. [MDN: It seems to us that there were multiple reasons why we grabbed the thug-dictator Maduro, and oil is one of those reasons.]