MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Tue, Jul 15, 2025 [FREE ACCESS]
NATIONAL: Trump’s tax law throws lifeline to unloved energy and climate sectors; INTERNATIONAL: WTI slips below $67 amid global tariff turmoil; How likely is $100 oil in 2025?; OPEC claims the world needs $18.2 trillion in O&G investments by 2050; Middle East gas exports soar to meet global demand.
NATIONAL
Trump’s tax law throws lifeline to unloved energy and climate sectors
Bloomberg/Michelle Ma
President Donald Trump’s $3.4 trillion fiscal package, signed on July 4, 2025, is reshaping the energy and climate sectors by bolstering coal, nuclear, geothermal, and geoengineering while phasing out tax credits for wind and solar. The law supports the struggling coal industry through tax credits for metallurgical coal and by reducing renewable energy’s economic edge, alongside actions like preventing coal plant retirements and promoting coal-powered data centers, though this raises climate and cost concerns. Nuclear power gains competitiveness with extended support and regulatory reforms, despite challenges like restrictions on foreign involvement. Geothermal energy, benefiting from fossil fuel industry techniques and exemptions from tax credit phase-outs, is poised for growth, backed by Energy Secretary Chris Wright. The law also increases the likelihood of geoengineering, a risky, untested method to cool the planet, as a response to rising temperatures and fossil fuel reliance, potentially shifting global climate strategies. [MDN: The new tax law is “reducing renewable energy’s economic edge” by removing unfair taxpayer money transfers to billion-dollar companies! When wind and solar compete openly and fairly on an even playing field, they lose. The sectors mentioned as “unloved” in the Bloomberg headline should say “unloved by leftists.”]
INTERNATIONAL
WTI slips below $67 amid global tariff turmoil
Bloomberg/Mia Gindis, Catherine Cartier
Oil prices dropped as US President Donald Trump intensified global trade tensions by threatening 100% secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia unless a Ukraine ceasefire is reached within 50 days, though he stopped short of directly targeting Russia’s energy exports, disappointing traders expecting tougher measures. West Texas Intermediate fell 2.1% to $66.98 a barrel, and Brent crude dropped 1.6% to $69.21. Trump’s additional 30% tariff threats on EU and Mexican goods further dampened energy demand outlooks, reinforcing bearish sentiment among hedge funds, who turned pessimistic on oil at the fastest rate since February. Despite near-term demand resilience, evidenced by China’s record trade surplus and increased crude imports, including from Iran, oil prices remain over 6% lower this year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ easing supply curbs raise oversupply concerns, with traders now eyeing US consumer price index data for monetary policy insights. [MDN: Just remember these other countries need access to our markets far more than we need access to theirs. We LIKE Trump’s tariff “war” and how it’s realigning world trade. Jobs and wealth are coming back to the U.S. Investment is coming to the U.S. The oil industry is doing just fine.]
How likely is $100 oil in 2025?
Rigzone/Andreas Exarheas
Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, told Rigzone that $100 oil in 2025 is increasingly unlikely due to a well-supplied market and weaker-than-expected demand, driven by global economic pressures. Despite recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S., oil prices only briefly hit the high $70s before retreating, even during peak U.S. driving season and global holidays. The absence of supply disruptions and soft demand underscore current market fundamentals. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent and WTI spot prices to average $68.89 and $65.22 per barrel, respectively, in 2025, with quarterly declines. Standard Chartered and J.P. Morgan also project lower prices, with Brent averaging $61-$66 and WTI $58-$63 per barrel this year. These forecasts reflect a bearish outlook, supported by ample supply and subdued global consumption, despite potential geopolitical surprises. [MDN: How likely is $100 oil? Unless there’s a major unforeseen disruption, it ain’t happenin’.]
OPEC claims the world needs $18.2 trillion in O&G investments by 2050
OilPrice.com/Charles Kennedy
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, in an interview with Energy Connects, emphasized the need for $18.2 trillion in oil and gas investments through 2050 to meet global energy demands, as outlined in OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2025. The report projects oil consumption to rise from 104 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 to 123 million bpd by 2050, maintaining a 30% share of the global energy mix. Al Ghais stressed that these projections are data-driven, not ideological, despite contrasting views from the International Energy Agency and major oil firms, which anticipate a demand plateau next decade. While acknowledging slower demand growth in China, OPEC attributes continued global oil demand growth to economic development, population growth, and an expanding middle class. Al Ghais underscored the urgency of immediate investments to prepare for future energy needs, asserting that there is no peak oil demand in sight. [MDN: There’s not much we trust from a group of murdering thug dictators. But, oil is their business and lifeblood, and what keeps them in power. If anyone has a bead on what future demand will be for oil, it’s OPEC.]
Middle East gas exports soar to meet global demand
OilPrice.com/Rystad Energy
The Middle East is poised to become the world’s second-largest gas producer by 2025, trailing only North America, as per Rystad Energy’s analysis, with a 15% production increase since 2020 and a projected 30% rise by 2030, reaching 90 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd). Driven by developments in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE, the region’s output is expected to grow by 20 Bcfd by 2030, meeting half of Europe’s current gas demand, with 10 Bcfd available for export to Europe and Asia. This growth depends on Brent prices staying at $70 per barrel and gas prices between $7-9 per MMBtu; lower prices could reduce growth to 20% or less. Half of the new supply will address rising domestic industrial demand, while the rest will bolster exports, positioning the Middle East as a critical energy hub for stable gas supply amid increasing global demand. [MDN: The thug dictators of OPEC are not stupid. If customers want natgas, they will do their best to provide it.]