MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Thu, Sep 11, 2025 [FREE ACCESS]

OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Glenfarne, Gunvor sign 20-year LNG supply deal as project nears investment decision; NATIONAL: Oil rises on Trump warning to Russia; U.S. natural gas settles lower ahead of storage data; Congressional hearing highlights how natgas is key to energy affordability; Dessler “unhinged” at CO2/Climate Optimism Report (“doomism” under siege); Phillips 66 considers buying US LNG, hires staff in new push; INTERNATIONAL: Norway premier holds fast to fossil fuels; Does OPEC want a price war?; IEA prepares to walk back predictions of peak oil and gas demand; Bangladesh becomes LNG’s hottest story; China starts buying US-sanctioned Russian gas, defying Trump.

OTHER U.S. REGIONS

Glenfarne, Gunvor sign 20-year LNG supply deal as project nears investment decision
Reuters/Arunima Kumar
Glenfarne’s Texas LNG export project has signed a 20-year agreement with trader Gunvor to supply 0.5 million tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas (LNG) free-on-board, converting a prior preliminary deal between the companies. The deal moves the Brownsville export terminal closer to its final investment decision. Glenfarne Energy Transition, through its subsidiary Texas LNG, is developing the project, with US demand and global supply?chain pressures boosting interest for long?term U.S. LNG contracts. Engineering, procurement, and construction will be handled by contractor Kiewit. [MDN: In August, FERC granted this facility an extra five years to come online (see FERC Grants Texas LNG Brownsville Extra 5 Years to Come Online).]

NATIONAL

Oil rises on Trump warning to Russia
Bloomberg/Mia Gindis, Alex Longley
Oil prices rose for a third straight session as geopolitical tensions and U.S. policy uncertainty fueled supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.7% to $63.67 a barrel, its highest in a week, after President Donald Trump’s social media post questioning Russia’s incursion into Poland spurred traders to cover shorts amid expectations of new U.S. penalties on Russian energy. Additional risks stemmed from Israel’s strikes in Qatar and Yemen, complicating U.S. peace efforts. While U.S. inventories swelled and WTI’s prompt spread weakened, declining producer prices bolstered hopes for Fed rate cuts. Brent rose 1.7% to $67.49, reflecting renewed geopolitical risk premiums. [MDN: The price of oil continues to trade in a fairly narrow band of the mid-$60s. That’s the news here.]

U.S. natural gas settles lower ahead of storage data
Wall Street Journal
U.S. natural gas futures gave back gains from the previous two sessions ahead of inventory data expected to show an increase in the storage surplus that tops the five-year average. Comfortable temperatures in much of the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic, and lighter demand due to the Labor Day holiday likely contributed to an above-average storage build, NatGasWeather.com says in a note. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey predict an injection of 69 Bcf, which would raise the surplus to 186 Bcf from 173 Bcf the week before. Nymex natural gas settled down 2.8% at $3.029/mmBtu. [MDN: We’re dangerously close to the psychological $3 line, but at least we’re still on the right side of that line.]

Congressional hearing highlights how natgas is key to energy affordability
Energy in Depth/Mallory Smith
A recent House Subcommittee hearing made clear that banning natural gas in favor of full electrification would worsen, not solve, the U.S. energy affordability crisis. Witnesses—including trade groups and utility representatives—argued that natural gas offers lower costs, reliability, and flexibility for heating, cooking, and grid support; replacing gas with electricity alone would drive up demand, raise prices, strain supply, and eliminate redundancy during emergencies. They noted mandates in some states already add thousands of dollars to home costs and price many households out of the housing market. [MDN: Little by little, it seems common sense and rationality are creeping back into the energy dialog. We only hope we can hold on to a Republican majority for the next few years, so everyone can see the futility of the left’s demand that we all convert to unreliable renewables.]

Dessler “unhinged” at CO2/Climate Optimism Report (“doomism” under siege)
MasterResource/Robert Bradley Jr.
The article criticizes Andrew Dessler’s reaction to the DOE report “A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate,” arguing that Dessler overreacted and dismissed the report without fair treatment. Bradley claims that the DOE report supports “climate optimism,” including that elevated CO? has benefits like global greening, that many extreme-weather claims lack long-term trend support in U.S. data, and that sea-level rise hasn’t shown the expected acceleration in U.S. tide gauges. The article paints Dessler as dismissive, alarmist, and more of an activist than a dispassionate scientist, lacking temperance in the face of scientific uncertainty. [MDN: Dressler is a “climate scientist” at Texas A&M University. He’s let his extreme-left politics color his rational scientist brain.]

Phillips 66 considers buying US LNG, hires staff in new push
Bloomberg/Ruth Liao, Nathan Risser
Phillips 66 is exploring entry into liquefied natural gas (LNG) trading through long-term U.S. supply contracts and new Houston hires, marking a strategic shift for the refiner traditionally not active in LNG. The move remains in early discussions, with the company emphasizing its focus on expanding commercial agility without major capital expenditures. This pivot aligns with global demand as Asia and Europe seek cleaner energy sources, while U.S. producers like EQT target international markets. Phillips 66 has positioned itself as a diversified energy firm, though this strategy has faced criticism from activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which pushed for a refining-focused approach. [MDN: We find this interesting. EQT and then ConocoPhillips recently announced deals to buy LNG so they can resell it overseas. Now Phillips 66 is gearing up to do the same, entering the LNG trader space. Seems like the lines are beginning to blur between drilling and trading.]

INTERNATIONAL

Norway premier holds fast to fossil fuels
Bloomberg/Kari Lundgren
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store vowed to continue fossil fuel exploration despite pressure from potential coalition partners to scale back, as he begins talks to form a new Labor government after winning the election with less than 30% of the vote. Norway, now Europe’s largest natural gas supplier after Russia’s decline, has seen oil output rise to decade highs with projects like Johan Castberg, supported by major investments from Equinor and Aker BP. While the Greens, who doubled their seats, push to end new exploration, Store emphasized balancing energy security, emissions cuts, and climate obligations alongside reliable European supply. [MDN: At least one Euro weenie has his head screwed on straight.]

Does OPEC want a price war?
Rigzone/Andreas Exarheas
Macquarie strategists, Rystad Energy, and SEB analysts say OPEC+’s decision to modestly increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October reflects a shift from defending prices to protecting market share, even at the risk of lower oil prices. Analysts describe the move as a tactical “game of chicken,” aimed at testing U.S. shale resilience, with WTI potentially dropping into the $50s by 2026. Rystad notes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq are driving the pivot, prioritizing long-term relevance over short-term revenue, while Russia seeks immediate cash flow. The cautious increase signals OPEC+’s strategic tilt toward volume over price. [MDN: However, the analysts said as a long-term strategy, OPEC does NOT want a full-on price war. We say, who knows? There’s no explaining the crazy minds of thug dictators. Maybe they do, maybe they don’t.]

IEA prepares to walk back predictions of peak oil and gas demand
OilPrice.com/Irina Slav
The International Energy Agency (IEA), long known for projecting that oil demand would peak before 2030, has drafted a new World Energy Outlook report acknowledging that oil and gas demand will continue growing for decades. Bloomberg’s Javier Blas highlighted how past IEA forecasts relied on scenarios based more on assumptions than current realities, including the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Announced Pledges Scenario, both of which often exaggerated climate policy implementation. This led to repeated revisions and even reversals, such as the 2021 Net Zero roadmap. The draft’s findings could reshape the narrative of stranded oil and gas assets. [MDN: All you need to know about the IEA is that a Commie, Fatih Birol, heads it, and that the agency under him has become worthless. Its pronouncements are NOT to be believed, period. It’s time to defund the IEA and put Birol out of a job.]

Bangladesh becomes LNG’s hottest story
OilPrice.com/Natalia Katona
Bangladesh has rapidly emerged as Asia’s most active buyer of spot LNG, shifting from self-sufficiency to import dependence as domestic gas output declines and demand grows. With production falling from 27 bcm in 2018 to 20 bcm in 2025, imports surged, led by Qatar’s long-term contracts and rising spot purchases from the U.S., Malaysia, and others. In August 2025, imports hit a record 728 Kt, highlighting reliance on volatile markets. However, subsidies, mounting deficits, fragile infrastructure, and stalled terminal projects expose systemic risks. Financial lifelines, including World Bank guarantees, sustain imports, but without new supply, contracts, and pricing reforms, Bangladesh risks remaining a vulnerable buyer of last resort. [MDN: Another potential new customer for M-U molecules. Go get ’em! However, be sure you get cash up front before delivery.]

China starts buying US-sanctioned Russian gas, defying Trump
Newsweek/Micah McCartney
China has escalated imports of Russian natural gas despite U.S. sanctions, intensifying energy ties with Moscow and challenging Washington’s enforcement of its Arctic LNG 2 blacklist. The sanctioned tanker Zarya recently delivered its third cargo to Beihai, China’s primary hub for these shipments, part of a fleet quietly bypassing sanctions. These deliveries support Russia’s economy as European demand collapses and coincide with approval for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, expanding Russian gas exports to China. Analysts view this as a deliberate test of U.S. and EU sanctions, while Washington signals potential retaliatory measures, including tariffs and tightened scrutiny on Moscow’s buyers. [MDN: It would be painful given how much we’ve allowed China to overtake our manufacturing, but we think it’s high time to cut them off. Use massive tariffs against them and crash their economy. Without our markets, they are SCREWED. Let’s start that screwing right now.]