MDN’s Energy Stories of Interest: Mon, Sep 29, 2025 [FREE ACCESS]

OTHER U.S. REGIONS: Data center developers drawn to Virginia by fiber-optic network, low power prices; NATIONAL: U.S. natural gas futures mixed as October expires; Shale execs complain of ‘broken’ prospects in new survey; America’s oil patch is cooling as costs rise and uncertainty mounts; INTERNATIONAL: Oil posts biggest weekly gain since July; India told to drop Russian oil for US trade deal; Strike blocks LNG cargo arrivals at French import terminals; Orban stands ground vs Trump over Russian energy; Russia receives 1 billion euros from Europe for oil and gas every month.

OTHER U.S. REGIONS

Data center developers drawn to Virginia by fiber-optic network, low power prices
RBN Energy
Virginia has long been the nation’s top data center hub, home to more than 550 facilities and drawing developers with its strong fiber network, tax incentives, low power costs, and proximity to Washington, DC. Growth has been explosive, with Dominion Energy projecting contracted demand nearly doubling to 40 GW in late 2024—comparable to the electricity use of entire countries. But this boom has sparked backlash: rising household electricity bills, water consumption nearing 2 billion gallons annually, and grid reliability concerns. Local governments are increasingly rejecting or restricting new projects, even as major tech firms remain eager to expand in “Data Center Alley.” [MDN: An interesting appraisal of Virginia’s data center landscape. Hey, data center builders, forget Virginia and come build in Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania!]

NATIONAL

U.S. natural gas futures mixed as October expires
Wall Street Journal
U.S. natural gas futures settle mixed with the October contract expiring and the front month shifting to November, with about a month left to the April-October storage injection season. “We still believe that utilities and other users are looking ahead to a possible cold winter that could combine with a long-awaited upswing in export activity in prompting some appreciably higher prices by the end of this year,” Ritterbusch says in a note. Gas for October delivery went off the board at $2.835/mmBtu, off 2.4%, and the November contract rose 0.3% to $3.206/mmBtu. [MDN: Let’s see what happens with the new November “front month” contract today. It was $3.206 on Friday. It will likely sink today, but maybe we can keep it above $3? Fingers crossed.]

Shale execs complain of ‘broken’ prospects in new survey
Daily Caller/David Blackmon
At U.N. Climate Week, President Donald Trump reiterated his “drill, baby, drill” stance, but a Dallas Fed survey of shale executives shows deep pessimism about U.S. drilling prospects. Nearly 80% cite Trump’s push for lower oil prices to fight inflation as discouraging investment, with some predicting drilling will disappear. Executives also blame layoffs, regulatory burdens, and tariff-driven cost increases for industry strain, while pointing to OPEC+ decisions and global oversupply as bigger price drivers. The industry’s grievances are real, but analysts stress oil’s cyclical nature and the maturity of shale plays mean a drilling revival was unlikely regardless of policy. [MDN: This all began under Joe Biden and has continued. Trump has not been a magic bullet. However, we are a free market economy. Capitalism. The trite but true aphorism is: The fix for low prices is low prices. The system will correct, and prices will increase again, eventually. You have to hang tight and let it work.]

America’s oil patch is cooling as costs rise and uncertainty mounts
Forbes/Robert Rapier
The Forbes article reports that U.S. oil production is cooling as rising input costs, persistent volatility, and policy uncertainty erode profitability, according to the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Producers are scaling back aggressive growth strategies and prioritizing capital discipline. Many are focusing on sustaining rather than expanding output, especially as the easiest “sweet-spot” fields deplete. The article warns that unless costs stabilize or prices rise, investment may lag, limiting U.S. oil’s ability to act as a reliable swing producer amid global supply fluctuations. [MDN: This article fits with the one above by David Blackmon, based on the sentiments expressed in the Dallas Fed survey. It certainly does appear that a slowdown in the oil patch is coming. It wouldn’t take long for that to turn around if conditions change.]

INTERNATIONAL

Oil posts biggest weekly gain since July
Bloomberg/Veena Ali-Khan, Mia Gindis
Oil prices recorded their largest weekly gain in over three months as geopolitical tensions and speculative trading fueled a rally. Brent crude closed at $70.13 a barrel, above $70 for the first time since July, up 5.2% for the week, while WTI settled at $65.72. Strong U.S. economic data and a weaker dollar boosted demand sentiment, while mounting Western pressure on Russia and stepped-up Ukrainian drone strikes against its energy infrastructure added supply risks. Traders flipped net-long, amplifying gains. Despite expectations of a global surplus later this year, resumed Kurdish exports and OPEC+ output increases, geopolitical risks kept oil markets volatile. [MDN: We’re certainly no experts, but in watching this a long time, our guess is that while Brent may have slipped above $70, it won’t stay there long.]

India told to drop Russian oil for US trade deal
Bloomberg/Shruti Srivastava
India and the US held trade talks in Washington from Sept. 22–24, described as “constructive” but without breakthroughs, as disputes over New Delhi’s Russian oil purchases overshadowed progress. US negotiators tied tariff relief and a potential trade deal to India cutting ties with Moscow, while President Trump recently doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, citing support for Russia. India offered concessions, including easing restrictions on genetically modified corn and pledging to buy more US defense and energy goods, but maintained it won’t halt Russian imports. Immigration restrictions and lingering tariff disputes further complicate prospects for a final deal. [MDN: We expect this to continue being messy until India sees the light. We think they will.]

Strike blocks LNG cargo arrivals at French import terminals
OilPrice.com/Michael Kern
French LNG operator Elengy has declared force majeure, halting cargoes at its three import terminals—Fos Tonkin, Fos Cavaou, and Montoir-de-Bretagne—until at least October 2 due to a nationwide energy sector strike over pay. The strike has already cut French nuclear power output and disrupted LNG flows, with Fos terminals unable to send gas to neighboring countries and Montoir seeing reduced deliveries. Loading at Fos Cavaou is also blocked. While the Dunkirk terminal saw only a minimal impact, the disruption comes as Europe races to refill gas storage before winter, with Asian LNG demand remaining weak, enabling Europe to secure U.S. cargoes. [MDN: This could potentially affect U.S. LNG shipments. Let’s hope the strike ends quickly.]

Orban stands ground vs Trump over Russian energy
Bloomberg/Andras Gergely
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban pushed back against U.S. President Donald Trump’s call to cut Russian energy imports, saying Hungary’s landlocked economy would collapse without piped oil and gas. Orban, speaking after a phone call with Trump, stressed Hungary will act in its own interests and not follow U.S. guidance, noting a cutoff would trigger a 4% drop in economic output. While acknowledging friendly dialogue, Orban said each nation must pursue its own path. His remarks highlight Hungary’s continued reliance on Russian energy despite EU and NATO ties, risking tensions with Trump, who also pressed Turkey to reduce Russian imports. [MDN: That’s fine. Hungary should do what’s in its own best interests, as should the U.S. And the U.S. has an interest in helping to stop the war on Hungary’s doorstep. So, Hungary should understand when they’re hit with nosebleed U.S. tariffs and can no longer access our markets. That’s how it works in the world.]

Russia receives 1 billion euros from Europe for oil and gas every month
Online.ua/Oleksiy Hrushevsky
European Union nations continue to pay Russia roughly €1 billion per month for oil and gas despite the ongoing war in Ukraine. Although energy imports from Russia have dropped by about 90%, Europe still spends around €965 million monthly, with total annual payments exceeding €19 billion in 2024. Hungary and Slovakia maintain indefinite exemptions and import via the Druzhba pipeline, citing cost advantages, while the United Kingdom has continued to import refined Russian fuels via indirect routes. [MDN: Until Europe stops paying Russia, the war will continue to be funded. It’s really that simple.]