New polls arrive each day now to proclaim that Donald Trump is toast and sleepy/creepy Uncle Joe Biden is going to win big. New polls arrive just about every week to announce that Americans are suspicious of shale fracking and would, in a heartbeat, dump fossil fuels. Don’t believe either the political or fracking polls so-called mainstream media releases. Why? Because the polls themselves are constructed not to determine public opinion, but to shape it. Almost all polls today are push-polls.
MDN is pleased to bring you another guest post from our very good friend Chris Acker–a post about polls. Chris is a geological engineer with an MBA. He grew up in the oil fields of Venezuela where his father, a petroleum engineer, was a drilling contractor for all the major players, onshore and off.
Chris’ interest in energy economics and policy found him working for Exxon, Petroleum Industry Research Associates, and Petroleos de Venezuela. He bought a parcel of land in the PA countryside thirty years ago and later semi-retired to work on antique pianos.
Chris leased his Susquehanna County property to Cabot Oil & Gas and has a well sitting off his front porch not more than 200 yards away. In 2015 MDN editor Jim Willis got an exclusive tour of Chris’ well as it was being drilled, given by none other than Cabot’s own Buddy Wylie, the guy responsible for making the magic happen with Cabot’s wells. You should hear Buddy wax eloquent on the topic of mud logging!
But we digress. Chris has written an article about the use (abuse, actually) of polls–polls on both fracking/fossil fuels and politics. The following article also appears on the Natural Gas Now website, operated by Jim and Chris’ mutual friend Tom Shepstone.
We thank Chris from the bottom of our heart for his tireless efforts in sending news links each day to Jim, making MDN a much better publication.
Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania
Chris Acker once again applies his knowledge and humor to a perplexing problem; how to do polls and get the result you so very much want.
Businesses, non-profits and political groups routinely seek information from target audiences. To this end they can use polling, surveys and focus groups to gather data. Results can be used objectively or used to promote an agenda. Intentionally flawed methods will generate meaningless data that in turn can be used to lend an air of legitimacy to virtually any position.
In this piece, I’ll outline how to manufacture both types. If you are not already, you will likely be skeptical of polls by the end of the article.
Corporations have every incentive to collect accurate data, especially in the area of product development. Poor research can lead to weak product demand and financial loss. When developing a consumer survey it is therefore essential to pose unbiased questions and to associate a cost with each feature or action described. This is true for opinion gathering in both the public and private sectors, more of which later.
In generic and abbreviated terms, here’s an example of a poor product survey:
“Omatron” is developing a new gizmo:
Would you like these features?
Sure! These features sound great. I’ll check “yes” for all, as each comes free.
A more meaningful survey will gauge what is important to potential buyers based on how much they would be willing to pay for each feature. Our improved questionnaire would look something like this:
“Omatron” is developing a new gizmo:
Would you consider purchasing these features at the costs below?
Results from this survey will be dramatically different from the first. Developers will be able to incorporate cost-effective features and offer a product that consumers will actually buy.
Collecting objective, valid and meaningful data is challenging, time-consuming and expensive. It requires specialized skills that are gained by professionals through years of experience.
Now to the fun part – how to get the results you want to promote your favorite cause. An agenda poll, commonly referred to as a “push poll,” works for all – left wing/right wing, radicals/conservatives, fossil fuel haters/fossil fuel lovers. Here’s an example. What makes it especially appealing is that you don’t need much, if any, experience to create an agenda poll. Just follow these simple rules…
1. Ask questions you can’t disagree with:
Headline generated: Vast majority are in favor of clean air and water and against industrial pollution.
2. Begin questions with a false premise:
3. Begin questions with an alarming, false premise and no associated cost:
A more balanced question might ask:
Most energy-related push-polls I’ve run across have come from the environmental segment. Headline results are picked up by mainstream media with an objective of tilting general opinion away from fossil fuels and toward a “green revolution” of some sort. Not surprisingly, energy industry research efforts have tended to be more balanced. Perhaps they feel more accountable to shareholders, regulators and the general public not to mention litigious lawyers.
Not to be outdone, the “best” worthless surveys are generated by our political parties. I’m sure you’ve received them…
Your party is looking out for you and will make your life better by doing A, B, C.Despicable opponents want to inflict these awful things X, Y, Z.
Do you agree they are:
___ Terrible ___ Very Terrible ___ Extremely Terrible
Now send us $25, $50, $ Much More
So, here you have it in a nutshell. Good, meaningful data is difficult to extract. It relies on asking relevant, unbiased and well-crafted questions while clearly presenting associated costs. Agenda polls, on the other hand, are relatively easy to construct since they are intended to generate artificial results. This manufactured data, in turn, is used to validate pre-determined answers and to bolster well-established positions.