Predicting the Price (and Production) of Natural Gas

According to David Sterman, a 20-year investment analyst writing on the Seeking Alpha website, the commodity price for natural gas has likely bottomed out in the U.S. and will now slowly rebound. Natural gas is currently trading around $2.45 per thousand cubic feet (mcf). Goldman Sachs believes by the end of this year prices should be around $3.75 mcf, moving to $4.25 in 2013, and $5.50 in 2014.

How does the commodity price of natural gas affect landowners? It costs drillers roughly $2.30 mcf to drill, pipeline and sell natural gas, so if prices hit that level, production stops. As the price falls into the sub $3.00 range, drillers slow production, stop production, or shift production from dry gas (methane-only) areas to more lucrative wet gas (natural gas liquids) areas.

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