Henry Hub Averaged $2.93 This Summer; Marcellus Gas Fetched Far Less
This July was the hottest July on record for the Lower 48 states, averaging 77°F. You’d think a heat wave like that, with everybody cranking up the A/C, would send natural gas prices soaring. Nope. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports the Henry Hub spot price averaged $2.93 per MMBtu (million British thermal units, roughly 1,000 cubic feet of gas) from June through August, 6% less than the same period last summer. EIA credits (or blames, depending on your point of view) record gas production, full storage caverns, LNG export plant maintenance, and more solar and wind generation. That’s the national story. Here in Marcellus/Utica country, the story is the same, only more so. Our local prices ran far below Henry Hub all summer. Read More “Henry Hub Averaged $2.93 This Summer; Marcellus Gas Fetched Far Less”
Here’s a number that should make every Marcellus/Utica landowner and driller wince: $1.590. That’s what gas at the Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus hub is fetching for October delivery, according to NGI’s Forward Look. Meanwhile, down in Florida, the very same molecule (quite possibly gas that started life in a Pennsylvania or West Virginia well) is priced at $3.960 for October. That’s a $2.37 gap, which means Florida buyers are paying 2.49 times what our local hubs get. The culprit? Not enough pipe heading south. And this week, one of the few big southbound pipes we do have, Mountaineer XPress, sprang a leak. 
Expand Energy, the country’s largest natural gas producer, opened 
The front-month October NYMEX natural gas futures contract settled Friday (Sept. 25) at $3.196 per MMBtu, up 28.4 cents, or 9.75%, for the week. That’s a nice week to be long gas. Most of the fireworks came on Thursday, when a leak on TC Energy’s Mountaineer XPress (MXP) pipeline in West Virginia knocked roughly 1.8 Bcf/d of Appalachian takeaway offline and sent futures up 9.06% in a single day, the biggest one-day gain since January (see 
When Appalachian gas prices fall into the basement, EQT turns down the valves, and CEO Toby Rice says the strategy is paying off. In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, Rice put a dollar figure on it for the first time: a little over $200 million a year in benefit from selling less gas when prices are low and more when they’re high. He also said EQT, the country’s No. 2 gas producer, will pump more gas in 2026 than last year while spending less to do it. Rice talked up the company’s proposed POWER Pipeline to Ohio, its Mountain Valley Pipeline expansions, and a new 10-year LNG supply deal with Lithuania. His outlook for global gas demand is, let’s say, very bullish. 
Appalachian spot natural gas prices just fell off a cliff. Texas Eastern M-2 — the benchmark hub for Marcellus/Utica gas — dropped 41.5 cents to average $1.245/MMBtu for weekend and Monday deliveries, with some trades printing as low as $1.020, according to NGI (
The fall “turn down the valves” season for Marcellus/Utica gas has arrived, and it showed up about a week early. Last Friday (Sept. 11), the spot price at Texas Eastern M-2 (aka Tetco M-2), the key pricing point for gas produced in southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio, averaged $1.435 per MMBtu (million British thermal units, roughly 1,000 cubic feet of gas). That’s 6.5 cents below the $1.50 mark that EQT, the region’s biggest driller, has flagged as its trigger for curtailing (temporarily cutting back) production. So, are shut-ins coming? History says probably, at least for a while. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) dropped its September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday, and for once the natural gas headline numbers barely budged. Henry Hub is forecast at $3.43/MMBtu for 2026 and $3.28/MMBtu for 2027 — a penny and three cents below last month. After August’s 23-cent haircut, that’s practically a rounding error. The interesting stuff this month isn’t in the price line. It’s in the regional production tables, where EIA lays out exactly who is growing and who isn’t. Spoiler: it’s the same story as last month, only now EIA has put hard numbers on it. 
Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its quarterly Natural Gas Production Report covering April through June 2026 (full copy below). Three numbers, all pointing in the same direction: PA drillers spudded (started drilling) 89 new horizontal wells in 2Q26, down 16 wells (-15.2%) from the 105 spudded in 2Q25. Production volume was 1,925 billion cubic feet (Bcf), down 32 Bcf (-1.6%) from 1,957 Bcf in 2Q25 — the lowest quarterly volume since 4Q24. And the average Pennsylvania spot hub price was $2.11 per MMBtu, down 27 cents (-11.3%) from last year’s $2.38. 
Six days after WhiteHawk Minerals (NYSE: WHK) filed its first quarterly report as a public company, CEO Daniel Herz took the stage at EnerCom Denver and did something CEOs usually avoid: he put a dated natural gas price forecast on the record. He thinks $4 gas is the number that unlocks the next wave of supply, he doesn’t think the Haynesville gets where people expect, and he thinks the back half of this decade is going to be a roller coaster. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday — the agency’s monthly toss at the energy dartboard. Last month EIA nudged its Henry Hub natural gas price forecast up a few pennies. This month it took a real bite out of it. EIA now expects Henry Hub to average $3.44/MMBtu in 2026 (down from $3.67 last month) and $3.31/MMBtu in 2027 (down from $3.49). For the current quarter, the number is $2.87/MMBtu — a full 50 cents below what the agency predicted a month ago. The short version for landowners and royalty owners: gas is going to be cheap this fall. The longer version is more interesting, and it’s a story about where the gas is coming from. 
Want to know what the smartest money in the natural gas business expects to happen in the Northeast this winter? Don’t ask a politician. Look at the forward curve. As of the first of August, traders were pricing December-through-February gas at Algonquin Citygate (the Boston benchmark), Iroquois Zone 2 in New York, and three Tennessee Gas Zone 6 points in New England above $18 per MMBtu. At the other 77 pricing hubs Natural Gas Intelligence tracks across the U.S. and Canada, that same three-month strip averages under $5. Read that again. Same country. Same historically abundant supply. Roughly four times the price.