March STEO Predicts 2025 NatGas Price Avg Higher @ $4.20/MMBtu
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA expects the Henry Hub price to average around $4.20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, 11% more than last month’s forecast. EIA also expects the annual average price in 2026 will be near $4.50/MMBtu, up 8% from last month. What changed? EIA now expects more consumption of natural gas in 2025 and 2026 and less natural gas in storage, leading to the rise in its forecasted Henry Hub spot price. Read More “March STEO Predicts 2025 NatGas Price Avg Higher @ $4.20/MMBtu”
The NYMEX natural gas “front month” futures contract (currently the April contract) closed at its highest level yesterday since Dec. 29, 2022, closing at $4.4910 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). That was a gain of 9.2 cents from Friday’s close. However, it was quite the roller coaster, at least early in the day, as the price flirted with $5. At one point the price got as high as $4.901. Although weather is typically the factor driving price gains, this time it was trader psychology and concerns that U.S. natural gas storage levels could tighten further ahead of the summer air-conditioning season (less supply with the same or increasing demand). 
Is this the beginning of the “running of the bulls” with respect to natural gas traders? According to a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, quite possibly. Yesterday the NYMEX Henry Hub “front month” futures price closed up 22.8 cents at $4.35/MMBtu—the highest closing price since Dec. 30, 2022 (more than two years). Typically, weather, like a major cold snap, is the driver. But not this time. According to PRICE Futures Group, lower natgas inventories (in storage), higher demand from Europe for our LNG, and the prospect of a dry, hot summer have combined to drive prices higher. Add to that, we now officially have a tariff trade war with Canada, with our friends to the north slapping an export tax on electricity and natural gas flowing to our country, and the gas trading bulls were on a stampede. 
U.S. natural gas futures jumped 7.5% on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.8 Bcf/d so far in March, up from a record 15.6 Bcf/d in February, as new units at Venture Global’s 3.2-Bcf/d Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana entered service. 
Yesterday, MDN noted the NYMEX “front month” futures price of natural gas had jumped 28.2 cents to close just above $4/MMBtu (see 
Hold on, everyone. The NYMEX natural gas price roller coaster is climbing up the next hill, and there is no telling how high it will go—or how quickly it will go down again. Yesterday, the NYMEX “front month” (March contract) for natural gas futures based on the price at the Henry Hub soared 28.2 cents to close at $4.0070 (call it $4.01). It was the sixth day in a row that the price has gone higher. The current cold snap (weather) in the central and eastern sections of the country is credited with the rise in the price. NGI reports its nationwide average for the spot price of natgas soared $1.010 to $6.880, its highest level since Winter Storm Enzo in mid-January. 
According to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, U.S. natural gas output stands near an all-time high as a period of strong demand and improved prices enable a production resurgence. Output averaged 106 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) over the latest weekend. In the Marcellus/Utica, production over the last seven days has come in at nearly 36 Bcf/d, up about 1.7 Bcf/d, or 5%, compared with the prior week. Single-day volumes at 36.3 Bcf over each of the last several days mark highs not recorded since winter 2023-2024. 
We sometimes poke fun at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predictions, accusing the analysts of using a dart board to generate the estimates they issue, especially with the future price of natural gas. But honestly, they have a tough job. Price is a complex issue with a lot of factors. Even though the EIA’s track record has sometimes been off by a lot, it remains the one source most quoted by the media and experts worldwide regarding future price predictions. In yesterday’s Today in Energy web publication, EIA says it “expects higher wholesale U.S. natural gas prices as demand increases.” Its latest forecast for the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price is that the overall average for all of 2025 natgas will average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). EIA expects that number to increase in 2026 to an average of $4.00/MMBtu. Is that realistic? 
Baby, it’s cold outside! And it’s getting colder beginning this weekend and moving into next week. The cold weather, combined with less natural gas in storage (less than the average), has increased the NYMEX “front month” futures contract for natural gas. Yesterday, the NYMEX price closed at $4.2580 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the highest close since Dec. 30, 2022. Temps across the eastern half of the country (especially in the northeast) are set to hit lows not seen in years beginning next week. We think prices for NYMEX and many spot prices at trading hubs will spike higher. 
Based on comments in two different Reuters articles published yesterday, the Freeport LNG export facility is again experiencing an outage. It appears to be a partial outage. Freeport, in typical tight-lipped fashion, refuses to say anything. According to Reuters, flows to the 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) Freeport facility were on track to drop to 1.4 Bcf/d yesterday, down from 1.6 Bcf/d on Sunday and an average of 2.1 Bcf/d over the prior seven days. Here we go again. 
The prices natural gas is selling for, both the NYMEX futures price and the spot price at various trading hubs, continue to climb. Last Friday, the NYMEX “front month” futures contract (based on gas flows at the Henry Hub in Southern Louisiana) traded above $4/MMBtu for some of the day, but ultimately closed at $3.989, up 28.8 cents day/day. Just a little over a penny away from $4! That’s the highest closing price in two years. The physical spot price of gas trading at large northeastern cities, like Boston and New York, soared. Even the price for pipeline gas in places like northeastern and southwestern Pennsylvania hit highs not seen in nearly one year. 
On June 14, 2024, the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) that runs from Wetzel County, WV, to Pittsylvania County, VA, announced the pipeline had, after a decade of planning and building, finally begun to flow Marcellus/Utica molecules (see 
We have a post-mortem for the price of natural gas in 2024, and it ain’t pretty. With respect to the “front month” NYMEX futures price average during 2024, BofA (Bank of America) Global Research said in a report that the Henry Hub natural gas price averaged just $2.41 per MMBtu last year. It was “the lowest level since 2020 and second lowest level in at least 25 years.” Ouch. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) did a review of the Henry Hub spot (physically traded) price for 2024 and found it averaged $2.21 per MMBtu. That’s the lowest average annual price in inflation-adjusted dollars EVER reported. Double ouch.