Too Much Gas, Too Little Cold: Northeast Spot Prices Stuck Near $1
Time for another check of what our Marcellus/Utica (M-U) molecules are selling for, and the news is about what you’d expect after weeks of mild fall weather: not much. On Wednesday, the Henry Hub spot price (the national benchmark in Louisiana) averaged $2.610 per MMBtu (million British thermal units, roughly 1,000 cubic feet of gas). Here in the Northeast, gas for Thursday delivery sold for about a dollar. Mid-Atlantic gas (Texas Eastern M-3) went for $1.06, New York City (Transco Zone 6 NY) for $1.03, and New England (Algonquin Citygate) for $1.31. On Thursday, Texas Eastern M-2, the main pricing point for gas produced in southwestern PA, West Virginia, and Ohio, ticked up 5 cents to $1.100. That’s still less than half the Henry Hub price. A new NGI analysis explains why: heating demand in the East is running way behind last year, so the region has more gas than it needs. Even Canada has quit sending us much gas. Read More “Too Much Gas, Too Little Cold: Northeast Spot Prices Stuck Near $1”
Wall Street’s hedge funds have placed their biggest bet against natural gas prices in more than six years. They’re wagering that a “Super El Niño” will give the U.S. a warm, wimpy winter and leave way too much gas sitting in storage. They may be right. But the last time hedge funds loaded up on the short side of gas heading into winter (this past January!), Mother Nature handed them their heads. 
It’s late October, and somebody forgot to tell the weather. Forecasters say heating demand over the next 15 days will be among the lowest in 50 years, with temps in the 60s to 80s across much of the country. That should be bad news for gas prices, right? Not on Monday, at least not in our neck of the woods. Spot (cash) natural gas prices across the Northeast and Appalachia jumped big time. Transco-Leidy, a key pricing point for Marcellus gas in northeastern Pennsylvania, shot up 61 cents to $1.740 per MMBtu — a 54% one-day gain (MDN calc). Algonquin Citygate (New England) surged 71.5 cents to $2.085. Meanwhile, the NYMEX futures price fell to its lowest settlement in six months. What gives? Less gas flowing, mostly. 
Here’s a head-scratcher for you. On Tuesday, the price of natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) took a tumble, slipping below $3 for the first time in more than two weeks. Yet on that very same day, the “spot” (cash) price for gas right here in Appalachia went UP—and one trading point jumped more than 20% in a single day. How does that happen? And should drillers and royalty owners break out the champagne? Let’s unpack it. 
On Friday, we told you a leak on Columbia Gas Transmission’s Mountaineer XPress (MXP) pipeline had pushed Appalachian gas down to $1.06 (see 
The feds have spoken: this winter in the Northeast will most likely be warmer than normal, and maybe a little soggier, too. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its official winter outlook last Thursday (Oct. 15), and a “super” El Niño is calling the shots. For those who make a living from Marcellus/Utica gas, a warm winter means less gas burned to heat homes, and that means softer prices. The market noticed. November futures slid 12 cents on Friday. But here’s the twist. In pipeline-starved New England, traders are still betting on $20-plus gas in January. A mild winter can’t fix what bad policy broke. 
On Thursday, physical (spot) natural gas sold at Louisiana’s Henry Hub (the national benchmark) went for $3.30 per MMBtu. On the same day, gas sold at Texas Eastern M-2, which is the main price point for gas produced in southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio, went for $1.055. That’s the same molecule of methane, and our version fetched about 32 cents on the dollar. Why? Because a pipeline carrying Appalachian gas out of the region sprang a leak again. Here’s what happened, why it matters to your royalty check, and why there’s some good news on the horizon. 
Where do the people who actually drill for, and service, oil and gas wells think the price of natural gas is going? Every three months the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas asks them, and the answer from the latest survey is: not much higher in the short run, but steadily higher over the next five years. The third-quarter 2026 Dallas Fed Energy Survey, released September 30, found executives expect the Henry Hub price to finish 2026 at $3.29 per MMBtu, rise to $3.82 in two years, and reach $4.28 in five years. Meanwhile, the price in the real world right now is hovering around $3.00. Here’s what the crystal ball says, and what it means for the Marcellus/Utica. 
The pipeline got fixed. The price didn’t. In midday trading on Monday, Eastern Gas South (the M-U pricing point formerly known as Dominion South) sold for $1.005 per MMBtu, while Henry Hub in Louisiana sat at $2.960. That’s a $1.955 haircut. Gas sold in our backyard fetched about one-third of the national benchmark price. And M-U drillers are doing what smart business people do: leaving gas in the ground until someone offers a fair price for it. 
This July was the hottest July on record for the Lower 48 states, averaging 77°F. You’d think a heat wave like that, with everybody cranking up the A/C, would send natural gas prices soaring. Nope. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports the Henry Hub spot price averaged $2.93 per MMBtu (million British thermal units, roughly 1,000 cubic feet of gas) from June through August, 6% less than the same period last summer. EIA credits (or blames, depending on your point of view) record gas production, full storage caverns, LNG export plant maintenance, and more solar and wind generation. That’s the national story. Here in Marcellus/Utica country, the story is the same, only more so. Our local prices ran far below Henry Hub all summer. 
Expand Energy, the country’s largest natural gas producer, opened