Commodity Price

  • | |

    Desperate OPEC Wants US to Join Its Effort to Boost Oil Price

    desperateA year ago OPEC, composed of a group of America’s enemies, decided they would try to bankrupt the American shale energy industry by pumping as much oil as they could, driving the price of oil and natural gas into the subbasement. Good for consumers! Not so good for oil and gas drillers and the energy industry at large. Now that OPEC’s strategy, led by Saudi Arabia, has not worked, OPEC is ready to start talking with American shale producers to see if they can trick us into joining them in circumventing the free market. They want us to cooperate with them to restrict oil and gas output and drive prices back up. We sincerely hope America shale producers don’t do it. We need to bankrupt the Middle Eastern countries that have waged a war of terrorism on us for years. Tell them to pound sand–they certainly have enough of it…
    Read More “Desperate OPEC Wants US to Join Its Effort to Boost Oil Price”

  • | |

    Analyst Predicts Marcellus Production Will Go Up in October

    October surpriseNatural gas production in the mighty Marcellus Shale has dipped over the past several months–for the first time ever. As MDN has previously reported, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Drilling Production Report (DPR) in June was the first time the EIA predicted Marcellus production would fall, from June to July, from 16,522 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) to 16,494 MMcf/d (see A Sad First: EIA’s June DPR Reports Marcellus Production Slips). The July report shows Marcellus production slipping again, to 16,487 MMcf/d (see July EIA DPR – Utica Stands Alone with Higher Natgas Production). And in August, the DPR shows production prediction for September to be 16,372 Mmcf/d (see August EIA DPR: NatGas Production Declines in All 7 Shale Plays). But what’s this? An analyst with the huge bank Société Générale believes we may see an “October surprise” where Marcellus production ticks back up again. Why?…
    Read More “Analyst Predicts Marcellus Production Will Go Up in October”

  • | |

    A Strong Case for Exporting Marcellus/Utica Shale Gas

    Yesterday the price of natural gas trading at the benchmark Henry Hub delivery point in southern Louisiana traded for $2.71 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). At the Algonquin Citygate (Boston), where the price is known to spike due to pipeline shortages, the price was $2.59/Mcf. At Dominion South in southwestern Pennsylvania, the price was trading at $1.33/Mcf. And at the Tennessee Gas Pipeline Zone 4 Marcellus in northeastern Pennsylvania, gas traded at (don’t cry): $0.70/Mcf. A lousy 70 cents. (All prices are from the top notch NGI Daily Gas Price Index reporting service.) We are awash in natural gas in this country–a good thing. But we need exports and we need exports desperately or production will go down and prices won’t recover all that much. MDN spotted a press release from Platts touting their Japan/Korea Marker (JKM) service. In that release, they report the average price being fetched for natural gas trading in northeast Asia. You know how much they get for gas there? $8.01/Mcf. That’s 3x what gas is fetching on the Henry Hub, and 11x what it’s fetching at Tennessee Zone 4. Can we possibly make a stronger case that we need to export our cheap, abundant and clean-burning natural gas to other countries? Is it not a good thing to become a net exporter once again, instead of being indebted to the other countries of the world, countries that are gradually buying our country one piece at a time?…
    Read More “A Strong Case for Exporting Marcellus/Utica Shale Gas”

  • | |

    When Will There be Enough Pipelines in the Marcellus/Utica?

    How low can and will prices go in the Marcellus/Utica? Without pipelines like the Constitution, Northeast Energy Direct and Access Northeast (among others), prices for natgas in the Marcellus/Utica can and will go pretty low. Would you believe the price of natural gas selling at the Dominion South trading point in southwestern Pennsylvania briefly hit $0.71 (yes, 71 cents) per thousand cubic feet in early July? Would you believe there’s talk the price could even go as low as 60 cents/Mcf? That’s apocalyptic, end of any more drilling kind of prices. Without pipeline infrastructure, shale drilling shuts down. Which is why it is vital these pipelines get built. One bright spot is the recent reversal of the Rockies Express Pipeline now carting Marcellus/Utica gas to the Midwest (see 1.8 Bcf/d of Marcellus/Utica Gas Heads West on REX Starting Aug 1). Two more pipeline projects, due to be fully online in September, will also help: Spectra Energy’s Uniontown to Gas City (U2GC) Project Sunoco Logistics’ Mariner East 1 NGL pipeline from western PA to the Marcus Hook refinery near Philadelphia (see 2 Pipelines Will Raise Gas Sale Price by $1 for Range Resources). More on how pipelines are directly tied to the price of gas and the future of drilling…
    Read More “When Will There be Enough Pipelines in the Marcellus/Utica?”

  • | |

    Moody’s Says Oil & Gas Prices Staying Low Another 3 Years

    How long will oil and gas prices still in the basement? Isn’t that the quadrillion dollar question! A new report from Moody’s Investors Service says, after evaluating data on 90 companies, it expects oil and gas prices to stay low for another three years. Ouch. Here’s some insights from the wizards of smart at Moody’s…
    Read More “Moody’s Says Oil & Gas Prices Staying Low Another 3 Years”

  • | | |

    EVEP’s John Walker: NatGas Demand & Prices Heading Higher in 2016

    EV Energy Partners (EVEP) is a master limited partnership, or MLP, which distributes profits to “unit holders” instead of plowing profits into more projects. They like to invest in mature, already drilled wells and pipeline companies–things that act like an annuity throwing off profit with very little risk. Over the years EVEP amassed a huge amount of acreage in Ohio–before the Utica was known–mostly for conventional (vertical only) wells. That acreage is held by production and can also be drilled for unconventional/Utica Shale wells. Since 2009 EVEP has been trying to sell some/most of their Utica acreage. Seems like every year we hear “this is the year” from EVEP. Will 2015 be that year? Possibly. EVEP Chairman John Walker, in wide-ranging remarks during a quarterly earnings analyst conference call on Monday hints that new deals are coming, both third party and “drop down” deals where they sell things to themselves on paper. Most interesting to MDN were Walker’s remarks that he believes demand for natural gas will begin to really take off in 2016, and along with it, prices will go higher (more demand than supply)…
    Read More “EVEP’s John Walker: NatGas Demand & Prices Heading Higher in 2016”

  • | |

    A Basic Guide to Understanding “Impairments” for Marcellus/Utica

    There is precisely one reporter at the usually anti-drilling Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Anya Litvak, who writes objectively about the Marcellus/Utica and the oil and gas industry in general. Anya used to write for the Pittsburgh Business Times until the Post-Gazette snagged her away a few years ago. It’s our opinion that the Post-Gazette keeps Anya hidden under a bushel where her light doesn’t shine nearly as brightly as it used to. Anya has just written an excellent article about something MDN recently noticed when reviewing quarterly earnings updates–this business of “impairments” or writing down the value of o&g assets on paper. As we’ve noted for a number of the quarterly updates we have reported on for the second quarter, many (most) drillers are reevaluating their acreage in the Marcellus/Utica and, according to specified formulas tied to the price of natural gas and oil, determining those assets (leases and operating wells) are not worth as much now as they were just a few months or years ago–something called an impairment…
    Read More “A Basic Guide to Understanding “Impairments” for Marcellus/Utica”

  • | | | |

    2 Pipelines Will Raise Gas Sale Price by $1 for Range Resources

    As we told you yesterday, Range Resources is excited about two pipeline projects that will go online soon–Spectra Energy’s Uniontown to Gas City (U2GC) Project and Mariner East I–Sunoco Logistics’ NGL pipeline from western PA to the Marcus Hook refinery near Philadelphia. On the quarterly analyst conference call yesterday, Range Resources CEO Jeff Ventura led off with a discussion about those two projects. To point out the importance of pipelines, these two projects will mean, according to Ventura, that Range will get $1 per Mcf more for their production once the pipelines go online. That’s a huge increase–as much as 33%–over what they receive now. Here are Ventura’s enlightening comments from yesterday’s conference call…
    Read More “2 Pipelines Will Raise Gas Sale Price by $1 for Range Resources”

  • | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

    Join MDN at RBN Energy’s “Summer in the City” Event July 23 – NYC

    join usMDN invites you to join us in attending RBN Energy’s “State of the Energy Markets” one-day event in New York City on July 23. Before you hurry to say “yes,” a few caveats. It costs money (a lot of it). It’s aimed at executives working in the industry, as well as traders and investors. If that describes you (and we know that many of you read MDN), you may be interested in attending. We guarantee it will be a great event. Rusty Braziel & company will provide an overview of the key issues facing natural gas, NGLs and the crude oil market. They will explain how the markets for those three commodities interact and affect each other. They will also take a look at prices, where they may be heading, and how infrastructure affects price. If you are really “into energy” as we are, this is a must attend event. Details are below, along with a link to register…
    Read More “Join MDN at RBN Energy’s “Summer in the City” Event July 23 – NYC”

  • | | |

    WVONGA Says Rogersville Shale Drilling in WV is “When” not “If”

    To date, the shale revolution in West Virginia has been largely confined to the northern panhandle and north/central parts of the state, where first the Marcellus and increasingly the Utica Shale layers are targeted. Left out of the shale revolution has been southern WV. But that will one day change, according to Corky DeMarco, executive director of the West Virginia Oil and Natural Gas Association. No, the Marcellus/Utica are not the focus in the southern part of the state. In the south it will be the Rogersville Shale, and according to DeMarco, it’s more of a “when” rather than an “if” drilling will happen in the Rogersville Shale in WV. When will it happen? The southern part of the state will experience the economic bonanza being experienced in the northern part of the state. What will it take for Rogersville drilling to begin? Higher natgas prices…
    Read More “WVONGA Says Rogersville Shale Drilling in WV is “When” not “If””

  • | | |

    EIA: Oil & Gas Jobs Plunge 6 Months After Oil Price Plunge

    Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, has authored an excellent article about how jobs in the oil and gas sector lag behind oil price gyrations. That is, once the price of oil drops to a certain level, it takes a while before jobs in the sector start to disappear. Which makes sense. Oil (and gas) prices are cyclical–they go up, they down, they go up again. It’s always been that way. When prices tank, companies don’t immediately layoff people–it take a few months of wait and see to see if prices will recover. If they don’t recover within a few months? That’s when layoffs start to happen, and the statistics show it. A startling statistic included in the EIA story below: on-shore rig counts hit a new low for the week ending June 19–54% below the same point a year ago. It’s the lowest rig count level in nearly six years. While you can’t say “half the rigs, half the number of jobs,” you can say “half the rigs means a whole lotta jobs are now, 12 months later, gone”…
    Read More “EIA: Oil & Gas Jobs Plunge 6 Months After Oil Price Plunge”

  • | |

    Largest Private Oilfield Svcs Co Says Shale is Rebounding

    reboundCanary LLC is the largest privately owned (no publicly traded stock) oilfield services company in the U.S. Canary competes with the likes of Schlumberger, Halliburton and Baker Hughes. We wrote about Canary in January 2014, pointing out the company has operations in both the Marcellus and Utica Shale (see Oilfield Services Company Canary Buys Wellhead Competitor). Being privately owned gives one a certain sense of independence and fearlessness. Perhaps even a touch of contrariness. Such is Canary’s CEO, Dan Eberhart, who said last week in a press release that he believes the downward spiral of declining rig counts has stabilized and that a shale recovery has already begun in the U.S. In fact, he said, “the industry is on the way back.” When the head of the country’s largest private company that rents rigs and the manpower to run them says we’re at a turning point and drilling is about to pick up again, you need to perk up and pay attention…
    Read More “Largest Private Oilfield Svcs Co Says Shale is Rebounding”

  • | |

    Is Marcellus Production Heading for a Decline? EIA Says Yes

    A Reuters story is quoting analysis done by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (our favorite government agency) saying the EIA expects production in the Marcellus to remain flat for the next several years, and then begin a slow decline of 1% or so per year. The EIA prediction is based on the theory that natural gas prices in the Marcellus will remain really low–below $2 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) through 2016, and the average price won’t hit $4/Mcf until 2020 or later. Private analysts (many of them) disagree and say production will continue to climb over the next several years as new pipelines come online and drillers “uncurtail” production that is idled right now. Who’s right?…
    Read More “Is Marcellus Production Heading for a Decline? EIA Says Yes”

  • | | |

    Moody’s Says O&G Company Default Rate in 2015 Going Higher

    On Tuesday Moody’s Investors Service released a new report titled “Oil and Gas: The Bad, Ugly and Good.” The 12-page, which will set you back $550 (or free if you’re company subscribes to Moody’s) says, in essence, because the price of oil is recovering slowly, instead of quickly, “weaker oil & gas issuers are at a much greater risk of default.” That is, some drillers in 2015 will either go under or get bought out. How many? A high level summary of the report (below) doesn’t say how many. What it does say is that of all the companies rated by Moody’s with a credit rating of B3 or lower (too much debt, not enough revenue), 15% of all the companies in that list are oil & gas companies. That’s up from 8% of all companies in the list a year ago. In other words, it’s getting worse for drillers (or exploration & production companies, as it’s more properly called)…
    Read More “Moody’s Says O&G Company Default Rate in 2015 Going Higher”

  • | | | | | |

    SE PA Natgas Customers See Rates Drop 13.5% Thx to Marcellus

    Last winter in the northeast saw record-setting cold temperatures in many locations–particularly in Pennsylvania–and near-record demand for natural gas. That would normally mean the price of natural gas used to heat homes and power businesses would rise–significantly. Instead, if you’re among the 178,000 customers who live or work in one of 15 southeastern PA counties served by UGI Penn Natural Gas, your rates are about to go down–again. How much? By an average of 10.3% as of June 1st and another 3.2% on December 1st (total of 13.5% in 6 months). Why? Because UGI now sources ~90% of its natural gas from the cheap, abundant, clean-burning, homegrown, FRACKED Marcellus Shale. Even with record low temps and record high demand, your price just keeps dropping. UGI customers in other PA regions (northeast and central PA) are also seeing rates drop…
    Read More “SE PA Natgas Customers See Rates Drop 13.5% Thx to Marcellus”

  • | | | | | |

    Marcellus Shale Gas Road Show Visits Union County, PA

    Last Friday approximately 100 business leaders gathered in Lewisburg (Union County), PA for the “Think About Energy” briefing hosted by America’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA), UGI Utilities, Inc., UGI Energy Services and the Greater Susquehanna Valley Chamber of Commerce. The energy briefing is the seventh such briefing in a series being held throughout PA over the past year. The briefings focus on the supply outlook for natural gas and natural gas liquids, as well provide information on production, consumption trends, utilization opportunities and infrastructure developments. That is–the briefings help those who own or run businesses use and profit from the availability of cheap, abundant Marcellus Shale gas and figure out how to plug into the supply chain. Such sessions are not uncommon. What is uncommon about this session is it’s location–Union County–which is south of Lycoming County and east of Centre County. Union has not (yet) seen a single Marcellus Shale well drilled…
    Read More “Marcellus Shale Gas Road Show Visits Union County, PA”