IEA World Energy Outlook Predicts $80 Oil by 2020
Each year the International Energy Agency (IEA) issues a special World Energy Outlook report. The 2015 edition has just been published. This newest report examines the critical role of price for crude oil in “rebalancing” supply and demand. The authors note the process of rebalancing (getting to higher prices) is rarely a smooth adjustment. Indeed! In the central scenario of this year’s report, a tightening oil balance leads to a price around $80 per barrel by 2020–just five short years away (hang in there small independents!). The report also examines the conditions under which prices could stay lower for much longer, an all-to-real possibility. Below is a press release about the report and a copy of the Executive Summary for the report. Sadly they don’t release the full report for free–it will cost you €120 (~$129) for the PDF version, and €150 (~$161) for a paper copy…
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Doug “the ax” Lawler, CEO of Chesapeake Energy, was the keynote speaker on Tuesday at the Louisiana Gulf Coast Oil Exposition (LAGCOE). Lawler became CEO after corporate raiders Mason Hawkins and Carl Icahn, the two biggest investors in Chesapeake, forced Aubrey McClendon out–out of the company he co-founded. That’s what happens when you take other people’s money. You lose control. Lawler embarked on massive layoffs and selling everything but the kitchen sink. How’s it worked out? Lawler claims the company now has $1.5 billion in cash, giving them some breathing room. Lawler had some very interesting comments at LAGCOE on the price of natural gas–where he sees it going over the next five years, and at what price his company (and other companies) can’t make money. Lawler also talked about the price of oil, oil production and Saudi Arabia’s rather bizarre behavior with respect to oil production…
It’s a theme often repeated here on MDN and in mainstream media: We need more pipelines in the Marcellus/Utica. The problem, of course, is that it’s easy and fast to add new rigs and drill new wells in nothing flat. But at some point all of those wells flowing all of that gas need larger interstate pipelines to get the gas to market–markets in New England, New York and New Jersey, the south, the Midwest, even the Gulf Coast. The Marcellus/Utica is producing more than 25% of all the gas being produced in the country–way more than we can use ourselves. We need to move the gas to other parts of the country that can use it. So new wells come online, but it takes, literally, years to build a new pipeline. Why? Mostly because government regulatory agencies grind so slowly. We have an imbalance. What are drillers in the northeast doing to address the situation? Choking back their wells so they flow less. In some cases they’re shutting the wells in to stop them producing–until new pipelines are finished providing access to new markets so they can sell gas for a higher price. The latest mainstream media source to note this trend is Bloomberg…
Today Antero Resources became the first major Marcellus/Utica driller to issue their third quarter 2015 update. The company reports a 39% increase in production over the same quarter last year, and a 1% increase from 2Q15. They must have some sharp financial types at Antero because the average price they received for their natural gas was $3.99 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 3Q15, which is $1.22 higher than gas sold for in the NYMEX futures market. What that means is that they’re really good at hedging and using complicated financial instruments called derivatives in order to get a higher price for their gas than many others get. Good for them! However, not part of the update released today are Antero’s income statement and balance sheet–which will show the true financial condition of the company. They’re holding that back until the quarterly analyst phone call on Oct. 28. Here’s the operational report they filed today, with details about their Marcellus and Utica operations. We also spotted a new 10-year agreement to LNG to Chubu Electric via the Freeport (TX) LNG terminal…
The price of natural gas isn’t going anywhere fast during winter 2015-2016. That’s the takeaway MDN gets from an analysis just released by the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA). The NGSA’s 15th annual Winter Outlook assessment (full copy below) says we have record production on the way, record amounts of gas in storage, and according to the National Weather Service, a winter that will average around 7 degrees warmer than last year. NGSA also says demand for natgas from electric generating plants and other users will tick up a bit. So on balance, NGSA says there will be “neutral pressure” on this winter’s natural gas prices compared to the winter of 2014-2015. In other words, the price isn’t going anywhere–likely to stay in the same neighborhood of last winter’s average Henry Hub price of $3.21 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). MDN points out the price of gas varies widely depending on what part of the country you’re in. Although gas sold at the Henry Hub delivery point for an average of $3.21/Mcf last winter, gas selling at the Tennessee Gas Pipeline Zone 4 Marcellus delivery point was less than half that–around $1.50/Mcf last winter. NGSA is saying: What you saw last winter for prices is what you’re likely to see this winter…
It takes guts to walk boldly into the liberal lion’s den and tweak the nose of the beast. That’s what Marty Durbin, chief executive of America’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA), has done with an editorial appearing in yesterday’s Boston Globe newspaper. Durbin has the audacity to tell readers that their high energy bills and constrained natural gas supplies is “self-imposed.” He also tells them they can believe whatever they want, but they can’t defy the laws of supply and demand and there is no arguing the fact that New Englanders pay high energy prices because they lack necessary natural gas supplies. Just a few hundred miles away natgas prices in the Marcellus are a fraction of what gas sells for in New England. Marty pours it on! He also says a recent study shows without new natgas supplies for New England, by 2020 the average consumer will pay almost $1,000 more per year in energy costs than they do today. Read Marty’s audacious editorial for yourself below, full of cold, hard truth. Let’s hope New Englanders will see the light–which happens to be a blue natural gas flame…
CoBank, a national cooperative bank serving vital industries across rural America, has just published a study titled “U.S. Natural Gas Outlook through 2020: Demand Is the New Captain of the Ship” in which they predict the United States will become a net exporter of natural gas in 2017. While we don’t have a copy of the full report, we do have a summary below listing the key points in the report, along with a video…
In another sobering bit of analysis by global research firm Wood Mackenzie, the company tells drillers that while their hammering of the supply chain (like oilfield services companies) to reduce prices by 20-30% will help, it will only result in an overall 10-15% savings. If drillers want to keep their drilling projects “viable” (i.e. profitable), “additional measures” will be needed to manage costs. Wood Mackenzie researchers have a few suggestions for how drillers can continue lowering costs to the point their projects are, once again, turning a profit in a low oil and gas price world. If they don’t lower costs more, there’s a mind-blowing $1.5 trillion worth of shale projects that are “at risk” of not happening…
A year ago OPEC, composed of a group of America’s enemies, decided they would try to bankrupt the American shale energy industry by pumping as much oil as they could, driving the price of oil and natural gas into the subbasement. Good for consumers! Not so good for oil and gas drillers and the energy industry at large. Now that OPEC’s strategy, led by Saudi Arabia, has not worked, OPEC is ready to start talking with American shale producers to see if they can trick us into joining them in circumventing the free market. They want us to cooperate with them to restrict oil and gas output and drive prices back up. We sincerely hope America shale producers don’t do it. We need to bankrupt the Middle Eastern countries that have waged a war of terrorism on us for years. Tell them to pound sand–they certainly have enough of it…
Natural gas production in the mighty Marcellus Shale has dipped over the past several months–for the first time ever. As MDN has previously reported, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Drilling Production Report (DPR) in June was the first time the EIA predicted Marcellus production would fall, from June to July, from 16,522 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) to 16,494 MMcf/d (see