Commodity Price

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    OPEC’s 2015 World Oil Outlook Paints a Rosy Price Picture

    There is nobody on the planet who watches the oil market more closely than OPEC–the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC is made up largely of tinpot Middle Eastern dictatorships who keep their general populations pacified by sharing some of the riches from oil sales with them via socialist government programs. While the leaders of OPEC countries often lie to each other and lie to the world, one thing they typically don’t lie about is the oil industry, where it’s headed–and their own very vital role in it. Last week OPEC released its annual 2015 World Oil Outlook (WOO, full copy below), which outlines OPEC’s expectations for the global energy sector–in particular oil and gas–from now until 2040. One admission in the 2015 WOO: US oil production from shale plays will be “more robust” than OPEC had predicted as recently as last year. Another prediction in this year’s WOO: oil will hit $70 per barrel by 2020 (four short years from now) and climb to $95 per barrel by 2040 (15 short years from now). There are plenty of other interesting predictions and observations in this year’s WOO…
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    Price of Marcellus NatGas at Record Lows – $0.59/Mcf @ Dominion S

    chart going downThe price that physical natural gas is selling for–in December (winter!) no less–is enough to make grown men cry. And it does. While natgas prices for gas trading at the Henry Hub delivery point in southern Louisiana sold for an average of $1.89/Mcf yesterday, the price for gas trading at Dominion South (in the Marcellus Shale) was just 59 cents per Mcf–an historic low. Weather certainly has a lot to do with that price–but so does an overabundance of supply and lack of pipelines to carry that supply to other markets…
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    Problem: Some Marcellus/Utica Drillers Entering 2016 Not Hedged

    A recent report issued by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services sounds an alarm over the issue of hedging for 2016–in particular for independent producers in the Marcellus and Utica Shale region. What’s hedging and why do we care? Drillers (and others who buy and sell natural gas) often engage in a practice called hedging, which is, in a simplified explanation, a contract to sell (or buy) a commodity like natural gas at an agreed-on price at a future date. There is an element of risk in hedging. From a driller’s perspective, if you strike an agreement to sell your gas in the future and the price goes a lot higher, you have to sell your gas at the lower price you agreed to. That’s the down side. But if the price goes a lot lower in the future, you’ve covered your derriere by locking in a higher price for the gas you produce–making money when your competitors aren’t. Drillers and others who buy and sell gas use hedging as a way to guard against price swings. It’s a “risk management” function in a company. Unfortunately most of the hedges previously arranged more than a year ago are now expiring. And nobody but nobody is willing to strike a contract right now for $3 or $4/Mcf gas a year or more down the road. No one believes the price will recover that much. Which means many drillers (in our neck of the woods) are entering 2016 without their production being hedged–a very scary proposition…
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    Platts Says LNG Heading to Japan & Korea Fetching $7.40/Mcf

    Platts Japan/Korea Marker (JKM) LNG service issued an update yesterday that caught our eye. The JKM service says that LNG (liquefied natural gas) for delivery to northeast Asia (Japan and Korea) will average $7.397 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for January delivery. Converted, that’s $7.40/Mcf (thousand cubic feet). That number is down 26.5% year-over-year. But hey, if our drillers were getting $7.40/Mcf for their gas? We’d be singing, “We’re in the money…” The problem is, of course, we don’t (yet) export our natural gas via LNG to any other countries. That’s about to change in January when Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG facility begins shipping (see Genscape: Sabine Pass LNG Export Began Accepting Natgas on Dec 10). It’s not likely any gas will head to Asia from our shores until the Cove Point LNG export facility in Maryland is completed in the next few years. Until then, we can only watch and hope that some day our gas will be sold for $7+ per Mcf…
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    How Low Will it Go? Traders Say NatGas Price Will Hit 20-Year Low

    Two days ago we highlighted stories about the price of natural gas, noting it had hit a 14-year low (see Natural Gas Prices Hits 14-Year Low – When Will it Rebound?). On Monday the CME price (the price for futures contracts based on the Henry Hub price) closed at $1.89/Mcf (Mcf is thousand cubic feet, the equivalent of MMBtu, or one million British thermal units which the price is often quoted in). Yesterday the price closed at $1.79/Mcf. Just how low will the price go? A number of traders now believe it may hit $1.60/Mcf, which would represent a 20-year low. Some are saying it may hit (gasp) $1.50/Mcf. A lot of the “blame” for the historic low price of natgas is the prolific output from the Marcellus/Utica…
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    South Jersey Gas Customers Get $58 Xmas Present Thx to Marcellus

    Customers of natural gas utility company South Jersey Gas will get a nice Christmas present from the company next month–a credit on their bill for an average $58 per customer–collectively $20 million. Why? Because wholesale natural gas prices paid by the company are so low–thanks to the Marcellus Shale. So said South Jersey Gas in an announcement yesterday…
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    Natural Gas Prices Hits 14-Year Low – When Will it Rebound?

    gas oil priceThe price of natural gas hit a 14-year low yesterday. Ouch. We don’t normally report on the ups and downs of natgas prices because, well, because it goes up and down–all the time. Broad trends in the price we report on, but not the day-to-day vagaries of natgas prices. But we are today. Why? Because there appears to be no end in sight for these low prices. MDN editor Jim Willis lives in the Binghamton, NY area. It’s usually cold and cloudy in Binghamton in the winter–from about the end of October to mid-April. No lie. Winter is typically that long around these parts. Yesterday? Mid-60s. Today? In the 50s and sunny. We do love it–but it’s beginning to freak us out! Point: As was predicted by natural gas weather guys we heard a few months ago at a Bloomberg meeting in NYC, the weather in the northeast during this monster El Niño winter will be drier than usual and warmer than usual. Translation: We’re going to use a whole lot less heating fuel and natural gas. More supply than demand means prices go down and they stay down. And that’s just what’s happening. Traders are giving up on a cold snap causing prices to rebound, and that capitulation is reflected in the price of natural gas…
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    Where Do Drillers Like CONSOL Think Gas Prices are Heading?

    Where do Marcellus/Utica drillers believe the price of natural gas in the northeast is heading over the next few years? Wouldn’t you love to be a fly on the wall in boardroom meetings where gas price is discussed? We have the next best thing. It’s called hedging. Drillers (and others who buy and sell natural gas) often engage in a practice called hedging, which is, in a simplified explanation, a contract to sell (or buy) a commodity like natural gas at an agreed-on price at a future date. There is an element of risk in hedging. What if the price goes a lot higher? You have to sell at the lower price you agreed to. What if the price goes a lot lower? You’ve covered your derriere by locking in a higher price for the gas your produce. If you look at the hedging contracts gas companies strike, you get a sense for where they believe the price will go. We have an example from CONSOL Energy which has just released details of their hedging for the next few years. Where does CONSOL believe the price of natural gas is going from now until 2018? In a word, down…
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    1.1 Billion Barrels of Chesapeake Oil Disappear with a Keystroke

    Accounting is the “language of business.” Sometimes it appears to be spoken in a foreign tongue that is hard to understand. In addition to Chesapeake Energy’s major problems with lawsuits over royalties (see today’s top story about PA Attorney General Kane suing them), Chesapeake’s claim of how much oil (and gas) it can extract from its leased acreage, an important number on which loans are made, will decrease by an astonishing 45% this week. Poof! Nearly half what Chessy says is in the ground and available to extract just disappeared. How can that be? Accounting. In order to make a claim that “we have X barrels of oil, or X billion cubic feet of gas available to extract,” you have to be able to sell what you extract *at a profit* or it makes no sense to extract it and sell it. The formula drillers must use to prove they can extract it at a profit is set by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Because the price of oil and gas is low and not going up any time sooner, many companies, including Chesapeake, must now re-evaluate their numbers and restate their claims of how much inventory they have. And nearly half of Chessy’s inventory is now gone, with a few keystrokes and a spreadsheet formula…
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    Shale Gas Faces Double Trouble: Low Prices & Pipeline Opposition

    According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), the natural gas industry faces a double “new normal” that hobbles the industry: (1) low prices for natural gas for the foreseeable future, and (2) public opposition to pipeline expansion, especially in New England. Here’s what IEEFA’s executive director, Sandy Buchanan, says about this double threat to our beloved industry…
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    Will Low Oil/Gas Prices Lead to ‘Social Unrest’? $25/Bbl Coming?!

    The low price of oil (and gas) is blamed for a lot of things. You can add one more to the list: social unrest. You might think oil and gas prices being obscenely high would lead to “social unrest,” but according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets, it’s the opposite. The theory goes like this…In big oil countries like the U.S., Russia or even “wealthier” Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, when the price of oil crashes, they have the national resources to ride out the price collapse (i.e. keep welfare programs going)–until the price rebounds. But not all oil exporting countries are so fortunate. What if the price of oil hits the $25 per barrel range next year, as is predicted by RBC Capital Markets? According to their analysts, there are some (socialist) countries that will stop paying for public programs, and that will lead to “social unrest” as those addicted to the public teat get weened (think Greece). Among those countries are what RBC calls “the Fragile Five”–countries where ISIS is believed to be active. Which countries are they?…
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    Two Top O&G Trade Groups to Merge: ANGA & API

    The low price of oil and natural gas affects more than drillers and landowners–it even affects trade (i.e. advocacy) associations. For months going on years, the scuttlebutt has been that America’s Natural Gas Association (ANGA) might merge with the more flush American Petroleum Institute (API). Yesterday the two organizations announced that indeed they will merge, as of January 1st. Drillers are looking to cut expenses anywhere and everywhere they can–including paying less money to trade associations. This merger was a financial necessity for the relatively young ANGA (founded in 2009)…
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    Exceptionalism: Why the Marcellus Stands Alone Among Shale Plays

    In a recent analysis of the shale oil and natural gas industry in the U.S., Reuters analyst John Kemp says that there are big differences in shale oil and shale gas when it comes to price. He posits that oil output will be “less resilient” than gas when it comes to maintaining profitability with lower prices. Kemp offers the following comments and rationale for why and how the Marcellus (and Utica) has changed the natural gas industry–what he called “Marcellus Exceptionalism”…
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    EIA Report Predicts NatGas Will Average $2.59/MMBtu This Winter

    Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), publishes mountains of data and reports and analysis each day/week/month/year. So much if we did nothing but brought you only stuff published by EIA it would fill our daily reports! We always struggle with how much to share from the EIA. We bring you the monthly DPR (Drilling Productivity Report) because it details EIA’s predictions about what the seven major U.S. shale plays will produce in both oil and gas in the coming month (see the latest one published yesterday, EIA November DPR: Marcellus Production Down Again, Utica Increases). A report also just released is the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, a report that looks at the recent history of oil, natural gas, coal, renewables, etc., and predicts what will happen in the coming months/up to one year out. Below we’ve pulled and display the “Highlights” section along with the full section for natural gas. We also include a copy of the full report. It’s important to have the entire context in which natural gas (and oil) exists. We don’t live in a vacuum. The price and abundance (or scarcity) of other forms of energy influence the price and availability of natural gas and oil. Less coal coming? Likely means more natgas. More solar and wind capacity coming online? Likely means less natural gas. The energy market is fascinating and complex and shale energy is but one piece of a very large puzzle. This report helps us wrap our brains around it…
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    IEA World Energy Outlook Predicts $80 Oil by 2020

    Each year the International Energy Agency (IEA) issues a special World Energy Outlook report. The 2015 edition has just been published. This newest report examines the critical role of price for crude oil in “rebalancing” supply and demand. The authors note the process of rebalancing (getting to higher prices) is rarely a smooth adjustment. Indeed! In the central scenario of this year’s report, a tightening oil balance leads to a price around $80 per barrel by 2020–just five short years away (hang in there small independents!). The report also examines the conditions under which prices could stay lower for much longer, an all-to-real possibility. Below is a press release about the report and a copy of the Executive Summary for the report. Sadly they don’t release the full report for free–it will cost you €120 (~$129) for the PDF version, and €150 (~$161) for a paper copy…
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    Chesapeake’s Doug Lawler Talks About ‘Frightening’ NatGas Prices

    Jason Friday the 13thDoug “the ax” Lawler, CEO of Chesapeake Energy, was the keynote speaker on Tuesday at the Louisiana Gulf Coast Oil Exposition (LAGCOE). Lawler became CEO after corporate raiders Mason Hawkins and Carl Icahn, the two biggest investors in Chesapeake, forced Aubrey McClendon out–out of the company he co-founded. That’s what happens when you take other people’s money. You lose control. Lawler embarked on massive layoffs and selling everything but the kitchen sink. How’s it worked out? Lawler claims the company now has $1.5 billion in cash, giving them some breathing room. Lawler had some very interesting comments at LAGCOE on the price of natural gas–where he sees it going over the next five years, and at what price his company (and other companies) can’t make money. Lawler also talked about the price of oil, oil production and Saudi Arabia’s rather bizarre behavior with respect to oil production…
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