Commodity Price

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    Debate Rages: How Many Shale Drillers will go Bankrupt?

    Fadel Gheit, senior oil and gas analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., speculated on CNBC on Monday that half of all U.S. shale oil producers could go bankrupt before the price of oil reaches equilibrium. For Gheit, equilibrium price will be somewhere around $60-$70 per barrel. But, he says, it will take a few years to get there. His thesis is that in the meantime oil and gas companies are spending money out the wazoo and cannot sustain it and a good many of them (the smaller ones anyway) will go under. We compare his comments (below) with what Rusty Braziel recently said to Jim Cramer…
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    Historic Average Price of Oil is $30/Barrel – Who Knew?

    Here’s a bombshell: Did you know that throughout its existence as an energy source that oil has sold at an average of $30 per barrel, adjusted for inflation? There have been a few periods of price spikes, but overall, on average, oil has always sold for around $30/barrel. No, we didn’t know that either. But that’s the assertion of Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. He’s been an economist/researcher in the oil industry for nearly 40 years, so he should know. We often highlight articles by Lynch in our daily “best of the rest” listing of stories you may be interested in reading. Our favorite Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporter, Anya Litvak, recently spoke to Lynch. Here’s a portion of that enlightening interview…
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    Brutal Honesty from OOGA: ‘No Way to Sugar Coat’ the Bad News

    In December we highlighted comments by Shawn Bennett, executive vice president of the Ohio Oil and Gas Association (OOGA), in which he predicts 2016 for Ohio’s oil and gas drillers won’t be pretty (see OOGA Tells Ohio to “Sit Tight” – 2016 Won’t be Pretty). Must be Bennett is on a truth-telling tour. Last week he addressed the first Guernsey Energy Coalition meeting of the year last week in Cambridge, OH. He told the audience he wasn’t going to sugar coat the bad news, and he didn’t…
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    New Pipelines in the Marcellus Dramatically Improved Prices in 2H15

    What a difference a few pipelines can make. Last week the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued their Natural Gas Weekly report (excellent report, great overview of the industry at large). One of the brief articles included in last week’s EIA update was story about the “basis differentials” for the Marcellus, and how they’ve narrowed. Basis differential means “how much does the gas trading at a given location trade above or below the standard Henry Hub price.” For example, last summer gas trading at Transco’s Leidy Hub in the Marcellus was trading for $1.65 million British Thermal Units (MMBtus) BELOW the Henry Hub price. In December, the gap had narrowed and Transco Leidy Hub prices were, on average, trading around 89 cents/MMBtu below the Henry Hub price. That’s a vast improvement in just six months. Why the narrowing in trade price? New pipelines came online in the latter half of last year, carting Marcellus Shale gas to new markets. More demand (i.e. new markets) equals a bump up in price…
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    2015 NatGas Prices Traded at Lowest Level Since 1999

    Anecdotally we know that the price of natural gas in the U.S. as bought and sold along hundreds of locations on major pipelines was low in 2015. At least it seemed low. Story after story told us it was low. The price of gas as traded at the Henry Hub delivery point in southern Louisiana is used as a proxy for “the price” of natgas nationally–and it was low. But what does the actual data tell us? According to our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the data confirms what everyone already “felt” was the case: the price of natgas in 2015 traded at its lowest level since 1999. Here’s the proof…
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    How Antero Resources Converted an Ugly Duckling into a SWAN

    Antero Resources is perhaps the largest driller completely focused on the Marcellus/Utica (by acreage). They are certainly one of the most important drillers in the northeast. And bucking the trend of almost all of their competitors, they somehow manage to operate in the black (see Antero Resources 3Q15: Bucks the Trend, $237M in the Black!). What’s Antero’s secret to making money in arguably the worst time for our industry in a generation? In a word, it’s hedging. Somehow Antero crafts financial deals a year or more in advance to sell whatever gas they produce for prices much higher than others–at prices that mean the company continues to make a profit. Most energy companies these days are keeping the people who run those companies, AND their investors, up at night. A company like Antero comes as close to any as a SWAN–a “Sleep Well At Night” energy company. An interesting article on the Seeking Alpha website gives us background and clues as to how Antero has been able to convert itself from an ugly duckling into a SWAN…
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    Why Do Marcellus Drillers Continue Drilling with Prices in the Basement?

    If a company that makes a product can no longer make that product at a profit, why would it keep making that product? Put another way, if Marcellus drillers can’t make money by selling natural gas for 75 cents per thousand cubic feet (and they can’t), why would they keep drilling new wells? And why would they keep pumping gas from existing wells? That’s the question asked–and answered–by an excellent Oil & Gas 360 article…
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    2016: Fewer Rigs Operating, Less Gas Flowing in Marcellus/Utica

    This is the time of year when prognosticators come out of their prognostication holes to prognosticate about the rapidly-approaching New Year. Some of those predictions involve the Marcellus/Utica industry and what we may see coming our way in 2016. And what might we see? Most believe we’ll see cut-backs in drilling–most companies have announced such plans. However, one thing we won’t see is all drilling stop. As we highlight in a companion story today (see Why Do Marcellus Drillers Continue Drilling with Prices in the Basement?), drillers will keep drilling in the Marcellus in 2016. Perhaps not as much as they drilled in 2015–but make no mistake, the industry is not finished. So if they will continue to drill, even though prices are in the basement, where will they get the money to do so? That’s the focus of this particular piece of prognostication…
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    OPEC’s 2015 World Oil Outlook Paints a Rosy Price Picture

    There is nobody on the planet who watches the oil market more closely than OPEC–the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC is made up largely of tinpot Middle Eastern dictatorships who keep their general populations pacified by sharing some of the riches from oil sales with them via socialist government programs. While the leaders of OPEC countries often lie to each other and lie to the world, one thing they typically don’t lie about is the oil industry, where it’s headed–and their own very vital role in it. Last week OPEC released its annual 2015 World Oil Outlook (WOO, full copy below), which outlines OPEC’s expectations for the global energy sector–in particular oil and gas–from now until 2040. One admission in the 2015 WOO: US oil production from shale plays will be “more robust” than OPEC had predicted as recently as last year. Another prediction in this year’s WOO: oil will hit $70 per barrel by 2020 (four short years from now) and climb to $95 per barrel by 2040 (15 short years from now). There are plenty of other interesting predictions and observations in this year’s WOO…
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    Price of Marcellus NatGas at Record Lows – $0.59/Mcf @ Dominion S

    chart going downThe price that physical natural gas is selling for–in December (winter!) no less–is enough to make grown men cry. And it does. While natgas prices for gas trading at the Henry Hub delivery point in southern Louisiana sold for an average of $1.89/Mcf yesterday, the price for gas trading at Dominion South (in the Marcellus Shale) was just 59 cents per Mcf–an historic low. Weather certainly has a lot to do with that price–but so does an overabundance of supply and lack of pipelines to carry that supply to other markets…
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    Problem: Some Marcellus/Utica Drillers Entering 2016 Not Hedged

    A recent report issued by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services sounds an alarm over the issue of hedging for 2016–in particular for independent producers in the Marcellus and Utica Shale region. What’s hedging and why do we care? Drillers (and others who buy and sell natural gas) often engage in a practice called hedging, which is, in a simplified explanation, a contract to sell (or buy) a commodity like natural gas at an agreed-on price at a future date. There is an element of risk in hedging. From a driller’s perspective, if you strike an agreement to sell your gas in the future and the price goes a lot higher, you have to sell your gas at the lower price you agreed to. That’s the down side. But if the price goes a lot lower in the future, you’ve covered your derriere by locking in a higher price for the gas you produce–making money when your competitors aren’t. Drillers and others who buy and sell gas use hedging as a way to guard against price swings. It’s a “risk management” function in a company. Unfortunately most of the hedges previously arranged more than a year ago are now expiring. And nobody but nobody is willing to strike a contract right now for $3 or $4/Mcf gas a year or more down the road. No one believes the price will recover that much. Which means many drillers (in our neck of the woods) are entering 2016 without their production being hedged–a very scary proposition…
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    Platts Says LNG Heading to Japan & Korea Fetching $7.40/Mcf

    Platts Japan/Korea Marker (JKM) LNG service issued an update yesterday that caught our eye. The JKM service says that LNG (liquefied natural gas) for delivery to northeast Asia (Japan and Korea) will average $7.397 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for January delivery. Converted, that’s $7.40/Mcf (thousand cubic feet). That number is down 26.5% year-over-year. But hey, if our drillers were getting $7.40/Mcf for their gas? We’d be singing, “We’re in the money…” The problem is, of course, we don’t (yet) export our natural gas via LNG to any other countries. That’s about to change in January when Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG facility begins shipping (see Genscape: Sabine Pass LNG Export Began Accepting Natgas on Dec 10). It’s not likely any gas will head to Asia from our shores until the Cove Point LNG export facility in Maryland is completed in the next few years. Until then, we can only watch and hope that some day our gas will be sold for $7+ per Mcf…
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    How Low Will it Go? Traders Say NatGas Price Will Hit 20-Year Low

    Two days ago we highlighted stories about the price of natural gas, noting it had hit a 14-year low (see Natural Gas Prices Hits 14-Year Low – When Will it Rebound?). On Monday the CME price (the price for futures contracts based on the Henry Hub price) closed at $1.89/Mcf (Mcf is thousand cubic feet, the equivalent of MMBtu, or one million British thermal units which the price is often quoted in). Yesterday the price closed at $1.79/Mcf. Just how low will the price go? A number of traders now believe it may hit $1.60/Mcf, which would represent a 20-year low. Some are saying it may hit (gasp) $1.50/Mcf. A lot of the “blame” for the historic low price of natgas is the prolific output from the Marcellus/Utica…
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    South Jersey Gas Customers Get $58 Xmas Present Thx to Marcellus

    Customers of natural gas utility company South Jersey Gas will get a nice Christmas present from the company next month–a credit on their bill for an average $58 per customer–collectively $20 million. Why? Because wholesale natural gas prices paid by the company are so low–thanks to the Marcellus Shale. So said South Jersey Gas in an announcement yesterday…
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    Natural Gas Prices Hits 14-Year Low – When Will it Rebound?

    gas oil priceThe price of natural gas hit a 14-year low yesterday. Ouch. We don’t normally report on the ups and downs of natgas prices because, well, because it goes up and down–all the time. Broad trends in the price we report on, but not the day-to-day vagaries of natgas prices. But we are today. Why? Because there appears to be no end in sight for these low prices. MDN editor Jim Willis lives in the Binghamton, NY area. It’s usually cold and cloudy in Binghamton in the winter–from about the end of October to mid-April. No lie. Winter is typically that long around these parts. Yesterday? Mid-60s. Today? In the 50s and sunny. We do love it–but it’s beginning to freak us out! Point: As was predicted by natural gas weather guys we heard a few months ago at a Bloomberg meeting in NYC, the weather in the northeast during this monster El Niño winter will be drier than usual and warmer than usual. Translation: We’re going to use a whole lot less heating fuel and natural gas. More supply than demand means prices go down and they stay down. And that’s just what’s happening. Traders are giving up on a cold snap causing prices to rebound, and that capitulation is reflected in the price of natural gas…
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    Where Do Drillers Like CONSOL Think Gas Prices are Heading?

    Where do Marcellus/Utica drillers believe the price of natural gas in the northeast is heading over the next few years? Wouldn’t you love to be a fly on the wall in boardroom meetings where gas price is discussed? We have the next best thing. It’s called hedging. Drillers (and others who buy and sell natural gas) often engage in a practice called hedging, which is, in a simplified explanation, a contract to sell (or buy) a commodity like natural gas at an agreed-on price at a future date. There is an element of risk in hedging. What if the price goes a lot higher? You have to sell at the lower price you agreed to. What if the price goes a lot lower? You’ve covered your derriere by locking in a higher price for the gas your produce. If you look at the hedging contracts gas companies strike, you get a sense for where they believe the price will go. We have an example from CONSOL Energy which has just released details of their hedging for the next few years. Where does CONSOL believe the price of natural gas is going from now until 2018? In a word, down…
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