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EIA’s July STEO Slashes NatGas Spot Price Another $0.30 in ’25

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will head in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025. The agency expects the HH price to average $3.70 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.30 lower than last month’s forecast. EIA also dropped its 2026 forecast, now believing the gas price will average $4.40/MMBtu, down a whopping $0.50 (half a buck!) from last month’s $4.90. You can see why we refer to the dartboard EIA uses each month when creating these forecasts. Read More “EIA’s July STEO Slashes NatGas Spot Price Another $0.30 in ’25”

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EIA’s June STEO Predicts NatGas Spot Price to Average $4 in ’25

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA once again dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025. The agency expects the HH price to average $4.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.10 lower than last month’s forecast (and $0.30 less than the forecast from two months ago). However, EIA expects the annual average price in 2026 to be $4.90/MMBtu, which is $0.10 higher than last month’s forecast and $0.30 higher than the forecast from two months ago. An interesting dichotomy—that prices will trend lower this year but higher next year. Read More “EIA’s June STEO Predicts NatGas Spot Price to Average $4 in ’25”

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H&B Bank Survey Predicts NatGas Price $3.50-$3.75 Range Thru ’26

Banks remain confident in long-term energy fundamentals despite significant trade policy turbulence, according to the Spring 2025 Haynes Boone Energy Bank Price Deck Survey (full copy below). The survey, now in its 12th edition, is a leading source of information for energy lenders and producers, providing crucial details on commodity price expectations. Based on internal data from 28 banks, the latest survey indicates that while oil and gas prices have fluctuated in the short term, long-term forecasts remain consistent with past projections, suggesting that banks view recent economic changes as temporary. Banks expect natural gas prices to stay strong, in the $3.50-$3.75/MMBtu range through 2026, due to high LNG export demand and growing energy needs from artificial intelligence infrastructure. Read More “H&B Bank Survey Predicts NatGas Price $3.50-$3.75 Range Thru ’26”

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OH Landowners Say Injection Wells Leaked, Ruined 55 Oil Wells

Two conventional oil producers in Southeast Ohio say dozens of their wells have been flooded with industrial waste (brine) from the fracking industry. They claim that nearby injection wells that handle frack waste/brine are leaking. State regulators agree that injection wells, at least at some locations, are leaking. Not only have these leaks (if true) affected oil wells, but there’s a concern they may be contaminating area water wells. Read More “OH Landowners Say Injection Wells Leaked, Ruined 55 Oil Wells”

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OPEC+ Shows True Colors – Targets U.S. Shale with More Production

The murdering thug dictators of the OPEC+ cabal are once again showing their true colors. The last time Donald Trump was in office, OPEC+ attempted to undermine the American shale industry by flooding the market with oil production, which led to a crash in oil prices (see Oil Price Crashes – $56; First Time in History Sellers Pay Buyers). For Trump’s second administration, OPEC+ dictators have loudly proclaimed they are not trying to harm American shale drillers. Oh no, they’re just all choirboys and love DJT and American shale. Except that’s a lie. Read More “OPEC+ Shows True Colors – Targets U.S. Shale with More Production”

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Ohio’s Utica Condensate/Light Crude Part 3 – How It’s Transported

click for larger version

Condensate production (super-light crude oil) in the Utica Shale’s volatile oil window in eastern Ohio has more than doubled over the past three years. RBN Energy has done a deep dive into the Ohio Utica condensate market with several posts (three so far). The first article (in early January) dealt mainly with Encino Energy, the largest condensate producer in the Ohio Utica (see Superlight Crude Production Takes Off in Eastern Ohio’s Utica Shale). The second article (in late January) focused on the play’s second, third, and fourth largest condensate producers in the state: Ascent Resources, EOG Resources, and Infinity Natural Resources, respectively (see A Look at Ohio’s Utica Condensate/Light Crude Drillers, Part 2). Today’s (third) article deals with the question of how Ohio Utica condensate finds its way to market. How is it transported? (Hint: NOT by pipeline.) Read More “Ohio’s Utica Condensate/Light Crude Part 3 – How It’s Transported”

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Feb. STEO Revises Predicted 2025 Natural Gas Price Avg Up by 23%

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA said the natural gas price at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub is expected to average $3.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtus) in 2025—up about 23% from its January forecast ($3.10). EIA also raised its estimate for 2026, putting the annual average price at $4.20 MMBtus, up 5% compared with $4.00 in its January report. Read More “Feb. STEO Revises Predicted 2025 Natural Gas Price Avg Up by 23%”

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Tariff Silver Lining: Midwest Refineries Ready to Use M-U Crude

Donald Trump threatened and was prepared to implement a 25% tariff on both Mexico and Canada, including a 10% tariff (tax) on incoming oil and natural gas (and other energy) from Canada (see Trump Slaps Canada & Mexico with Tariffs, Including 10% on O&G). It took about 10 minutes for Mexico’s president to get on the horn with Trump and agree to implement plans to avoid the tariff. It took Canada about a day to do the same (Justin Trudeau is a petulant man-child, very stubborn). However, before we knew whether or not Canada would fold like a cheap suit, oil refineries operated by Marathon Petroleum in the Midwest were making plans to switch away from using heavy crude from Canada and replacing it with light sweet crude from the U.S., including crude from the Marcellus/Utica. Read More “Tariff Silver Lining: Midwest Refineries Ready to Use M-U Crude”

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A Look at Ohio’s Utica Condensate/Light Crude Drillers, Part 2

Condensates are in the light-colored bottles on the left (click for larger version)

Condensate production (super-light crude oil) in the Utica Shale’s volatile oil window in eastern Ohio has more than doubled over the past three years. The small number of drillers that focus on drilling for condensate in Ohio (about half a dozen) are due to increase their output of condensate in 2025 and 2026. Who are these drillers? Why do they see such promise for condensate growth in the Utica? And, how are they measuring their success? Read More “A Look at Ohio’s Utica Condensate/Light Crude Drillers, Part 2”

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Superlight Crude Production Takes Off in Eastern Ohio’s Utica Shale

Condensates the light-colored bottles on the left

We’ve been covering the emergence of Ohio Utica oil over the past couple of years (see our Utica oil stories here). Other news outlets are beginning to notice the oily Utica. The experts at RBN Energy published a post on Friday announcing, “Condensate Production Takes Off in Eastern Ohio’s Utica Shale.” Condensate is another word for superlight crude oil. The RBN post analyzes recent oil drilling in Ohio, the potential for more growth through the second half of the 2020s, and the impact of Ohio’s increasing oil output on Midwest midstreamers and refiners. Read More “Superlight Crude Production Takes Off in Eastern Ohio’s Utica Shale”

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Return of the Wildcatters – Utica Oil Drillers Grow Organically

Oil wildcatting is the process of drilling exploratory wells in areas with little to no history of oil and gas production. Wildcatting is a high-risk activity that involves drilling in unproven or fully depleted areas. Wildcat wells are often drilled far from other wells and without the use of well logs or other geological data. Wildcatting can be profitable—or spectacularly unprofitable. A recent Hart Energy article reports that “wildcatting is back.” The very first part of the article focuses on wildcatting that is happening in the Ohio Utica Shale. Read More “Return of the Wildcatters – Utica Oil Drillers Grow Organically”

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Infinity Natural Resources Picks Up Another 7 Banks for Utica IPO

MDN reported that in early October that Infinity Natural Resources (INR) filed an IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hoping to raise $100 million (see M-U Driller Infinity Natural Resources Files for $100 Million IPO). Citigroup, Raymond James, and RBC Capital Markets were the original Big Bank underwriters. At the end of November, INR added another seven Big Banks to the list as underwriters. Read More “Infinity Natural Resources Picks Up Another 7 Banks for Utica IPO”

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Encino CEO Says Ohio Utica Oil Boundaries Likely to Expand

We’ve brought you the news (a number of times) of how Encino Energy was the first driller to figure out how to coax large quantities of oil from the Ohio Utica Shale (see Oil Prod. in Northern Utica Comes Alive – Encino Cracks Oil Code). According to Encino founder and CEO Hardy Murchison, the oil window could extend well beyond its current geography. Murchison says, “It could be years or even a decade before we know the full extent of the [Ohio Utica oil] play.” Read More “Encino CEO Says Ohio Utica Oil Boundaries Likely to Expand”

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Dec. STEO Predicts 40% Higher NatGas Price for Winter 2024/25

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In October, the EIA predicted the average spot price for natural gas would be $3.10/MMBtu in 2025 (see Oct. STEO Predicts Lower Output, NatGas Price to Avg $3.10 in 2025). Last month, the agency reduced that number by $0.20 to $2.90/MMBtu (see Nov. STEO Predicts Henry Hub Gas Price to Average $2.90 in 2025). The yo-yo continues to gyrate. Yesterday’s report predicts the price will average $3.00/MMBtu for the rest of the winter and all of 2025—some 40% higher than the average price in November. Read More “Dec. STEO Predicts 40% Higher NatGas Price for Winter 2024/25”

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Same Guy Who Drilled 1st Marcellus Well Helped Crack Utica Oil Code

John Pinkerton

Hart Energy has published a number of articles highlighting companies and key people in the Marcellus/Utica region. Hart has an ongoing series called Hart Energy’s Hall of Fame to honor industry pioneers and the Agents of Change (ACEs) who are leading the energy sector into the future. A recent Hall of Fame article highlights one of the most important figures in both the Marcellus and Utica plays—John Pinkerton. Read More “Same Guy Who Drilled 1st Marcellus Well Helped Crack Utica Oil Code”

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Enverus Report Says Utica Shale Oil is a “Middleweight Contender”

The research arm of Enverus (formerly Drillinginfo), one of the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS platforms offering real-time access to analytics, insights, and benchmark cost and revenue data, earlier this week published a new report on the Utica Shale. The report specifically discusses Utica oil—the production performance for Utica wells, and the economics of the play. The analysts of Enverus conclude that the Utica is “America’s modest middleweight contender.” However, that’s not the biggest news. Read More “Enverus Report Says Utica Shale Oil is a “Middleweight Contender””