Crude Oil

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    Russia Cuts Deal with Saudi Arabia to Freeze Oil Production

    This is not our normal beat, but it has the ability to impact the Marcellus/Utica region. Yesterday Russia cut a deal with Saudi Arabia and several other OPEC members to freeze production at January levels for the foreseeable future. You might immediately think, “Aha, freeze production and oil prices will go up!” But the commodities market had the opposite reaction. Oil traders were hoping that the meeting, which is historic (Russia colluding with OPEC) would result in a CUT in production, not a FREEZE. The world is awash in too much oil right now–companies and countries are pumping more oil than the world can consume, leading to an oversupply and prices continuing to crash. The markets had hoped for a cut, got a freeze at the existing over-production levels–and that led to the price of oil going even lower. The price of oil influences the price of natural gas–and of course many companies that drill for gas also drill for oil, and the price of oil affects their economic health. So, for a variety of reasons, we like to keep an eye on the larger macroeconomic trends that may affect us here in the northeast. This is an important story…
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    Obama’s Final Disastrous Budget Targets Fossil Fuels

    In a final, parting shot at the fossil fuel industry, President Obama yesterday introduced what will be his final budget (thank God!). The plan calls for a new 25 cents per gallon tax on gasoline, cleverly disguised as a $10 per barrel “fee”–to be phased in over five years, long after Obama has retired to the links on some golf course in Hawaii. The fee would go to pay for the highway fund, and (of course) to fund Big Green projects (i.e. line the pockets of his supporters). The man knows no shame. The plan is clearly meant to force America away from using fossil fuels as an energy source, what the American Petroleum Institute calls Obama’s “leave it in the ground” strategy. The thing is, we don’t know of more than half a dozen Republicans on Capitol Hill (who happen to control Congress) who still possess their male equipment. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is the Emasculated-in-Chief himself. Will McConnell oppose this plan? Probably not. And that’s scary…
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    API & GPA Say PHMSA Regs for Liquids Pipelines Not Necessary

    Last October the Dept. of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) issued a notice of proposed rulemaking for new regulations governing hazardous liquid pipelines. It appears to be another case of aggressive action by the Obamadroids, bent on hassling the fossil fuel industry by requiring unnecessary regulations that don’t really improve safety. They just cost more money and take more time. The new rules will require safety inspections after “extreme” weather events and natural disasters–just to be sure there aren’t any leaks. Stepped up inspections would be required even if no problems are found–just to be sure no problems are found. The new regs also require all hazardous liquids pipelines to be piggable–something not physically possible with some pipelines. The list goes on. Recently both the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Gas Processors Association (GPA) weighed in on the proposed new regulations. Needless to say they’re not impressed…
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    Could Oil Go as Low as $10/Barrel? Yes, Says Jim Cramer

    Lately we’ve highlighted several articles about the price of oil (and gas). We ask, once again, just how low could the price of oil go? Jim Cramer on Mad Money addressed that question yesterday. His answer may shock you. Using research sent to him from Rusty Braziel, whom Jim recently interviewed and whom he calls “the smartest man in the oil patch” (see The Smartest Man in the Oil (& Gas) Patch: Rusty Braziel), Cramer says it’s not inconceivable that oil may go as low as $10 per barrel. You read that right! Here’s his reasoning…
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    Drill Our Way to Lower Gas Prices? Yes We Can!

    You remember when then-candidate Barack H. Obama kept saying “We can’t drill our way to lower gas prices”? He was wrong, as he so often is. The United States did exactly that–we drilled our way to low gasoline prices. Shale drilling (for oil) led to a world oil glut and the lowest prices not only for oil, but for its refined product gasoline, in years. Our friends at Energy in Depth pulled out clip after clip of the arrogant Obama categorically stating we can’t drill our way to low gas prices, added some funny music, and borrowed Obama’s own hackneyed “yes we can” language to make the point very loud and clear that Obama got it wrong. Take time to watch this short and hilarious video…
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    US Gasoline Prices Lowest Since 2009 – Thx to Fracking

    The average price for gasoline in the United States is now $1.99 per gallon. That’s the lowest price it’s been since 2009, the year Barack Hussein Obama was coronated as our dictator-in-chief. After Obama took office the price of gasoline steadily went up, until 2012. Since that time (Obama’s second term) the price of gas has remained steady and, recently, has dropped. Why? The miracle of fracking and horizontal drilling. Because of a new abundance of crude oil being produced in the United State, which caused Saudi Arabia to pump oil like there’s no tomorrow to defend their own market share, the world is now awash in oil, driving the price down. Gasoline is refined from crude oil, so eventually the price of gasoline followed the price of oil down. And it’s all because of fracking and the private sector–nothing to do with the government policies or Our Dear Leader…
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    Will Oil Hit $60 by Year’s End? Shale Giant Harold Hamm Says Yes

    The price of natural gas is somewhat tied to the price of oil. They don’t track exactly together, but we think it’s a fair statement to say as goes the price of oil so goes natgas. One of the pioneers of drilling for oil and gas in shale deposits is Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources. What Hamm thinks and says about the price of oil is of keen interest to everyone. He is, perhaps, the closest thing to an oracle our industry has. Hamm was interviewed on Wednesday and asked where he thinks the price of oil is headed in 2016. This is what he said…
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    Pulling the Curtain Back on EIA 2016/2017 Oil Price Predicition

    Yesterday MDN brought you the latest thinking/preview for where the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) believes energy production and prices will go over the next 12-24 months, something called the Short-Term Energy Outlook (see EIA’s STEO Predicts NatGas Price Constant This Year, Up Next Year). Today we bring you a deeper dive into the EIA’s predictions with respect to the price of crude oil. The EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $40 per barrel in 2016 and $50/barrel in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are predicted to be $38/barrel in 2016 and $47/barrel in 2017. Here’s a bit more background on how the EIA calculates its numbers for crude oil price…
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    EIA’s STEO Predicts NatGas Price Constant This Year, Up Next Year

    Yesterday the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report. It contains some interesting predictions. Among them: EIA predicts the average Henry Hub price for natural gas in 2016, when the year is completed, will end up being $2.65 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The average price for 2015 at the Henry Hub was $2.63/MMBtu–so the EIA believes this year will be virtually unchanged from last year, when the final chapter is written. The EIA goes on to predict the average HH price in 2017 will be $3.22/MMBtu. Another interesting prediction in this month’s STEO: EIA says natural gas’ share of the electric generation pie will actually fall–with natgas generating 33% of all electricity in 2015 to 31% in 2017. Why? More renewable sources coming online…
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    The Smartest Man in the Oil (& Gas) Patch: Rusty Braziel

    In 2015 MDN editor Jim Willis had the pleasure of sitting in on a one-day “State of the Energy Markets” presentation by RBN Energy, held in New York City. RBN, for those who don’t know, was founded by the former co-founder of Bentek Energy, Rusty Braziel. Rusty is a legend in the industry. He was there presenting, along with a few other seasoned pros that work for him at RBN. Great session. Jim learned a lot about the energy markets and how they work. And why they work the way they do. Rusty was a guest on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money program (on CNBC) last Friday. We have the video below. Jimmy Cramer calls Rusty “the smartest man on the oil patch” and the only person he consults with when it comes to the price of oil and gas and what’s happening. It’s high praise coming from Cramer. And well deserved. If you want to know why the price of oil (and gas) is doing what it’s doing, give this a watch and read…
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    Historic Average Price of Oil is $30/Barrel – Who Knew?

    Here’s a bombshell: Did you know that throughout its existence as an energy source that oil has sold at an average of $30 per barrel, adjusted for inflation? There have been a few periods of price spikes, but overall, on average, oil has always sold for around $30/barrel. No, we didn’t know that either. But that’s the assertion of Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. He’s been an economist/researcher in the oil industry for nearly 40 years, so he should know. We often highlight articles by Lynch in our daily “best of the rest” listing of stories you may be interested in reading. Our favorite Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporter, Anya Litvak, recently spoke to Lynch. Here’s a portion of that enlightening interview…
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    Explaining the Rift Between Saudi Arabia & Iran; Impact on Oil

    Daniel Markind
    Daniel Markind, Esq.

    You may have noticed a flare-up of tensions in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The “crisis” as it’s being called by news organizations like CNN has quickly escalated with other Arab countries taking sides–most of them siding with Saudi Arabia. The flare-up initially caused an uptick in the price of oil based on fears there may be oil disruptions in the region–but those fears quickly died down and along with it, the price died down too. What is this conflict all about? And how might it affect the price of oil (and gas) in 2016? MDN reader Daniel Markind, an attorney and partner in the Philadelphia law firm Weir and Partners, provides us with an excellent summary/overview of what this conflict is about…
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    Art Berman’s Peak Oil Theories, Again

    Art Berman seems to have learned an important lesson from Barack Hussein Obama. When somebody points out the flaws in your policies and theories, just double and triple down and keep repeating said theories all the more. That’s what Art Berman does with his discredited “peak oil” theory. You know, the theory that the world is about to run out of oil and that oil will continue to get more and more expensive (and scarce) until it is either too expensive to use or just plain gone. Nightmarish stuff. Keeps little boys and girls who watch Captain Planet up at night. And then the shale energy revolution hit and all of Art’s theories went out the door. Except he’s still pedaling his debunked theories, twisting and turning them–even recanting them (“Peak oil is not about running out of oil”)…
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    Enterprise Products First to Export Crude Post-Ban – Implications

    The very first shipment of crude oil from America’s shores to another country since the ban on crude exports was lifted two weeks ago in perhaps the worst national budget we’ve ever had (thanks to sell-out Republicans like House Speaker Paul Ryan), will happen the first week of January. Enterprise Products Partners, owner of the ATEX (Appalachia-to-Texas Express) natural gas liquids pipeline, will load 600,000 barrels of U.S. light sweet crude oil at the Enterprise Hydrocarbon Terminal (EHT) on the Houston Ship Channel and the ship will set sail in early January. How will oil exports affect the domestic (and international) oil industry?…
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    OPEC’s 2015 World Oil Outlook Paints a Rosy Price Picture

    There is nobody on the planet who watches the oil market more closely than OPEC–the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC is made up largely of tinpot Middle Eastern dictatorships who keep their general populations pacified by sharing some of the riches from oil sales with them via socialist government programs. While the leaders of OPEC countries often lie to each other and lie to the world, one thing they typically don’t lie about is the oil industry, where it’s headed–and their own very vital role in it. Last week OPEC released its annual 2015 World Oil Outlook (WOO, full copy below), which outlines OPEC’s expectations for the global energy sector–in particular oil and gas–from now until 2040. One admission in the 2015 WOO: US oil production from shale plays will be “more robust” than OPEC had predicted as recently as last year. Another prediction in this year’s WOO: oil will hit $70 per barrel by 2020 (four short years from now) and climb to $95 per barrel by 2040 (15 short years from now). There are plenty of other interesting predictions and observations in this year’s WOO…
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    The ONLY Good Thing About Budget Deal: Lifts Oil Export Ban

    It was truly disheartening to learn of the complete sell-out by House Speaker Paul Ryan (Republican) and the Republican-led House in the latest budget deal. They essentially bent over and grabbed their ankles and assumed the position while Barack Hussein Obama had his way with them. This budget deal is repulsive–as grossly corrupt as it gets. The Democrats are even more corrupt–but we expect that of them. The only good thing that came from the budget deal, as near as we can tell, is that it lifts the 40-year ban on crude oil exports. As a Bloomberg article headline puts it, “Shale Drillers Are Now Free to Export U.S. Oil Into Global Glut.” Yeah, that about sums it up. Hey, having the crude oil ban lifted is good, we’re happy about that. But in the larger pantheon of the budget deal, we could have lived without it if we had gotten a better deal on far more critical items. Here’s what the inimitable Heartland Institute, one of our favorites, said about this disastrous budget deal…
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