Société Générale Questions OPEC Oil Cut Agreement; Russia Lying?
Two weeks ago MDN editor Jim Willis attended the “Platts Global Energy Outlook Forum 2016” held in New York City (see Harold Hamm Talks About Trump, OPEC, and Global Warming). Our previous report focused on the keynote address and Q&A with Continental Resources CEO Harold Hamm. However, there was a second keynoter–for lunch–that riveted the attendees’ attention. That person was HE Abdalla Saem El-Badri, the former Secretary General of OPEC. While the audience munched away on salmon and Cornish game hen, John Kingston, director of S&P Global Market Insights sat on stage with El-Badri and peppered him with questions, mainly about the recent OPEC agreement to cut production among member states by 1.2 million barrels per day, and a follow-on agreement by non-OPEC members (like Russia) to cut another 600,000 barrels per day. At one point Kingston grilled El-Badri about those cuts, recounting that several speakers during the day had voiced the opinion that there would be perhaps 70-80% compliance with the proposed cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC countries. El-Badri voiced his opinion that “there must by 100% compliance” with the stated cuts–otherwise the price of oil will not hit and remain at the target of $55-$65 per barrel. Kingston was, understandably, incredulous, and continued to hammer El-Badri on the point–but El-Badri did not relent from his position that all participants “must” adhere to the cuts in the plan. Kingston is not the only skeptic when it comes to the cuts. The analysts at banking giant Société Générale maintain (in so many words) that Russia, in particular, is lying and will not cut 300,000 barrels per day of production as promised. Here’s SG’s best thinking about what will happen with the OPEC and non-OPEC cuts, and their prediction that the price of oil in 2017 will not hit $55-$65, but instead stay in the $50-$60 range…
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Last week MDN editor Jim Willis attended the “Platts Global Energy Outlook Forum 2016,” held at the beautiful Cipriani, located across the street from the iconic bull that sits on Wall Street. As in previous years, this year’s event featured a number of big names in the oil and gas industry. Most notable was the opening keynote address and Q&A with Harold Hamm, CEO of oil driller Continental Resources (and an adviser to Donald Trump). The luncheon featured the former Secretary General of OPEC. As you can surmise, this year’s event, unlike previous years, was mostly about oil. The recent OPEC agreement to cut production among member states by 1.2 million barrels per day, and a follow-on agreement by non-OPEC members (like Russia) to cut another 600,000 barrels per day, was the topic du jour for speakers and audience members alike. Below are MDN’s notes from Harold Hamm’s address and Q&A session…
Every now and again it’s fun to read Peak Oil people and their wild theories that oil will run out any year now. Such theories have been exposed as complete bunkum, mainly because those crusty old guys (and gals) in the U.S. oil patch keep figuring out how to do new things to extract oil, at cheaper prices. Technology gets better, procedures get better, we do more with less. And we produce more oil, year after year. But it’s still good to read those with a different viewpoint from time to time, just to keep us on our toes. Sometimes they even make some good points. That’s what we found in an article that posits the theory that shale oil really isn’t as good as it may appear. Why? According to this peak oil author, better technology now being used is not nearly as important as the technique currently employed called “high grading”–or targeting the sweetest of the sweet spots, which are far more productive than the run-of-the-mill drilling locations. The author maintains we’ll run out the best areas to drill soon, leaving us with less-than-optimal areas and therefore much higher costs. And then shale is toast. That’s the theory anyway…
Middle Eastern counties who sell us oil, including Saudi Arabia, have never been our “friends.” To pretend otherwise is dangerously stupid. We have depended on them for their oil, plain and simple. Oil equals energy and energy equals freedom and prosperity for the U.S. In the 1970s OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, flexed its economic muscles against our country and brought us to our knees with an oil embargo that caused shortages and prices to skyrocket. MDN editor Jim Willis recalls growing up in the 1970s when gas was rationed and you could only buy gas every few days (odd and even days) based on your license plate number. A scary time in our country. Thing is, our enemies haven’t changed–they are still there. They’re just a whole lot richer than they were back then, richer with our money in their pockets. The shale revolution changed all that. We are close to being 100% energy independent–without the need to import oil. Oh, we’ll have to keep importing for the foreseeable future. We don’t have enough refineries here to process the type of oil we produce (light sweet crude). But in a pinch, we’d figure out a way. OPEC and Saudi Arabia have badly misjudged America. They thought they could flood the market with cheap oil and bankrupt America’s shale drillers. Didn’t happen. In fact, we got better. We figured out how to drill for less money. Little known fact: Bakken drillers can now make money with oil selling as low as $29 per barrel! In other words, it’s now time to put the last nail in OPEC’s coffin and kiss them goodbye. We sincerely hope finally defeating OPEC will be a top priority in the new Trump Administration…
Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) has been on a mission to expand their operation at the Southport Marine site in Philadelphia by leasing an additional 200 acres to build a terminal for shale oil imports and exports. Believe it or not, a plan to lease the extra space has been going on for more than two years (see 
The Dakota Access Pipeline Project (DAPL) is a new approximately 1,172-mile, 30-inch diameter oil pipeline that will connect the expanding Bakken and Three Forks production areas in North Dakota to Patoka, Illinois. Although the pipeline has become the new Keystone XL complete with anti-fossil fuel lunatics protesting it, MDN has largely ignored it because it’s another battle in another geography and we’re fighting enough of our own battles. We try to cover news that directly affects the shale industry in the northeast. Except now the Dakota battle has become connected to our own battles here in the northeast. Let us explain…
When lunatic man-made global warming Kool-Aid drinkers feel like they’re being ignored, some of them tip over into criminal behavior in a bid to get noticed. It’s not just criminal, it’s terrorism. Terrorists were arrested Tuesday when they cut padlocks and chains at five remote flow stations (four different states) and shut down five oil pipelines coming from Canada into the United States. The terrorists turned off the valves at those stations–creating a dangerous situation. It was a direct attack against the United States and our energy infrastructure–yet it’s being treated (in the media) as, “Look at these devilish imps and what they did, aren’t they cute?” There’s nothing cute about it. The stated reason for the terrorist action is to oppose the “catastrophe of global warming.” Anti-fossil fuel madness has fully metastasized in their rather small brains…
When Aubrey McClendon first trumpeted his find in the Ohio Utica Shale, he famously said the Utica Shale could be worth $500 billion, and the “biggest thing economically to hit Ohio, since maybe the plow.” Not quite as famous, but on the same day at the same event, McClendon also said the Utica “is likely most analogous, but economically superior to, the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas.” That one turned heads and got tongues flapping. McClendon made those remarks five years ago this month at the Ohio Governor’s 21st Century Energy & Economic Summit in Columbus, OH. The reason Aubrey was so excited was because of the oil potential in the Utica. But fate is a funny thing. As it turns out, it is natural gas that’s turned out to be the big story in the Utica. Last Friday the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published an article that chronicles the development of the Utica and illustrates, with charts and graphs, how the Utica has turned out to be a gas rather than an oil play–at least so far…
David Hill is a geologist and a driller located in Ohio (David R. Hill Inc.). At a recent Coffee and Commerce meeting sponsored by the Cambridge Area Chamber of Commerce, Hill offered his insights into when oil drilling may return to Guernsey County and eastern Ohio. As MDN recently reported, much of the focus on drilling in the Utica has lately turned to dry gas, or methane only (see 
MDN has long pointed out that the United States has more natural gas reserves than any other country on earth, dethroning Russia years ago on that score–thanks to the shale revolution and the miracle of hydraulic fracturing. We’ve often heard the phrase that “the U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of natural gas.” But what’s this? A new research report issued by the respected Rystad Energy, an independent oil and gas consulting service, finds that the U.S. is now the Saudi Arabia of oil too! That is, the U.S. has more oil reserves, because of shale, than Saudi Arabia. Fracking has handed the U.S. what we’ve wanted for years–total energy independence from the tyrants in OPEC…
Last week BP released its annual Statistical Review of World Energy–the 65th edition! (We have a full copy embedded below.) A number of big energy companies, like Exxon Mobil, as well as government agencies, publish similar reports that characterize current and future world energy trends. However, one analyst we read says BP’s report is the best: “I have relied upon the BP World Energy report for years. It is not a report to be viewed with a partisan eye, but as merely one of the best, if not the best, energy trend device available anywhere. In comparison to government agencies like the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) the global International Energy Association (IEA) or OPEC’s own World Oil Outlook, the BP report has proven itself to be far more valuable in finding investable trends. I would never recommend any oil sector without having the statistical evidence of the BP World Energy Report behind me.” In scanning a summary of this year’s report, one statistic stands out for us. Environmental radicals constantly prattle on that renewable energy sources could replace fossil fuels, if we only had the will to change. What utter rubbish, as proven by this stat: In 2015 renewable energy, mostly used to generate power, reached 2.8% of global energy consumption, up 2% in the last ten years. Did you get that? Only 2.8% of the energy used in the world is generated by wind, solar, etc. Fossil fuels are here to stay through not only our own lifetimes, but the lifetimes of our children and grandchildren. Someday maybe we’ll be famous for having been prescient in penning these words (we’ll be long dead and gone)–but mark our words, fossil fuels are not going away any time soon…
A new report just issued by Global consulting and research firm IHS, says that Canadian oil sands and U.S. “tight oil” (i.e. shale oil) production have “become the twin pillars of North American energy security.” Canada’s oil sands the shale in U.S. represent 95% of the growth in North American oil production from 2009-2015. Over the same time we reduced our dependence on offshore oil imports by 40%. Folks, this is HUGE. Fracking of shale is nothing short of a miracle in our country. For Crazy Bernie Sanders to shout, as he did at a rally in California last week, that “We are going to ban fracking all across this country” is insanity itself. Can you imagine if that fossil actually became President and signed an Executive Order banning all fracking? Hillary Clinton’s position is essentially the same as Crazy Bernie’s. Loony tunes. For the first time since the oil shocks of the 1970s when OPEC began to royally screw us over, we now can tell OPEC where to go pump their oil. You can see why Obama’s decision to deny the Keystone XL Pipeline from Canada is so stupid and damaging to our energy security…