IHS Markit Says Shale Oil Growth Way Down in ’20, Flat in ’21

The smart folks at IHS Markit, a global analytics company that tracks data in the oil and gas industry, are predicting a major slowdown in shale oil production in 2020, and essentially no growth in production for 2021. Although this prediction, based on evidence and the intuition of people who study this stuff is about shale oil, the prediction *does* relate to the Marcellus/Utica as well.
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Where Does Most “Associated Gas” Come From?

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A few weeks ago MDN said the Marcellus/Utica produces more than twice as much natural gas as the Permian–33.3 Bcf/d in November for the M-U versus 16 Bcf/d for the Permian (see EIA Oct ’19 Drilling Report: Permian Gas Grows More than M-U). The Permian, an oil play, is a serious competitor to our region when it comes to gas production because when you drill for oil, gas comes out of the borehole too (associated gas). But the Permian is not the only play that potentially competes with the M-U on gas. There are other oil plays producing “associated gas.”
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Americans Have Saved an Amazing $1.1 Trillion Thx to M-U NatGas

Natural gas end-users, which include American households, businesses, manufacturers, and electric power generators, have realized $1.1 trillion in savings since 2008 as a result of increased natural gas production in the Marcellus/Utica region, according to a new report released yesterday. You read that right! Folks across the country have benefited by using M-U gas to the tune of $1.1 trillion in savings. Astonishing! The new report (full copy below) says the total savings works out to be an average of $4,000 per household. Thank God for fracking and horizontal drilling in the Marcellus/Utica.
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EIA Oct ’19 Drilling Report: Permian Gas Grows More than M-U

According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration, our favorite government agency), in the coming month of November, the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce a combined 84 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, and 8.9 million barrels of oil per day–a brand new record high for each. The real eye-opener is that while the M-U will produce 132 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of additional shale gas, the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico will produce an additional 210 MMcf/d of shale gas!
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Is Marcellus/Utica Gas Production Finally About to Peak?

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If you’ve read MDN for any length of time, you know we’re not much for “peak” anything–peak oil or peak gas–the theory that we’ve hit the top and either supply or demand will decrease. There are those who espouse both peak oil and peak gas theories (the tinfoil hat brigade in our book). In point of fact, October is the 34th consecutive month for which natural gas production in America’s shale plays has increased (see EIA Sep ’19 Drilling Report: M-U Growth Slows, Still a New Record). The rate of increase may have slowed a bit, but each month production (and use) still goes up. In Pennsylvania where the Marcellus reigns supreme, there’s been an unbroken chain of quarter-over-quarter increases in horizontal shale gas production for twelve consecutive quarters, or 36 months (see IFO: PA Natural Gas Production Hits New All-Time High in 2Q19). So when we spot yet another article claiming we’re entering the zenith, the top–and production is about to begin a slow decline “any month now”….you can color us skeptical.
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USGS Says Utica has More Recoverable Shale Gas than Marcellus!

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released a bombshell of a report yesterday. Two reports, actually. USGS periodically updates its estimates of how much oil and natural gas is still not accessed but is “technically recoverable” in various shale plays. The last time USGS evaluated the Marcellus and Utica plays was in 2011, when the two plays combined had 122 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable gas. In yesterday’s report, USGS says that number has almost doubled, to 214 Tcf. But the biggest surprise is that the Utica has MORE recoverable gas than the Marcellus!
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American LNG has Lower Emissions than Russian, Australian LNG

LNG and the amount of so-called greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions given off to produce LNG is the same the world over, right? We mean, LNG is LNG, right? Turns out, that’s not right. At least according to a new study just released by researchers at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). In a new report (full copy below), NETL researchers found that LNG produced here in the U.S. gives off lower GHG emissions during its manufacture than does LNG produced in both Russia and Australia. Meaning Europe and Asia should want to buy and use the better-for-the-environment LNG produced by Uncle Sam rather than buy it from one of those other countries.
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New Report: As WV Shale Drilling Goes Up, Air Emissions Go Down

Yesterday the Consumer Energy Alliance (CEA) released its West Virginia Emissions Brief (full copy below) which shows significant emissions reductions and environmental improvements made across the state. This brief further demonstrates that states can reap the rewards of energy production while practicing sound environmental stewardship simultaneously. Although West Virginia is now the seventh-largest natural gas producer in the country and one of the largest consumers of energy per capita, statewide carbon dioxide emissions have fallen 64% since 1990. And Sulfur dioxide emissions are down 94%!
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IHS Markit Says New Conventional Drilling is Pretty Much Dead

IHS Markit, a global analytics company that tracks data in the oil and gas industry, recently published a new report titled “IHS Markit Conventional Exploration Results in Early 2018 Through 2019: No Rebound in Activity or Results.” Although we don’t have a copy of the full report, we do have IHS Markit’s excellent summary of the report. Here’s how we summarize their summary: Conventional (vertical only) drilling for oil and gas is pretty much dead and will remain dead–and shale killed it.
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Appalachian Basin Upstream O&G Report: Less Drilling, EQT Rumors

Our good friend Charlie Schliebs, managing director of Stone Pier Capital, recently circulated a PowerPoint presentation/report from James Knobloch Petroleum Consultants that does an expert job at compiling current data and other valuable information on the status and trends for the oil and gas industry in the Appalachian Basin. Some of the juicy tidbits from the slide deck and accompanying commentary from Charlie: Drilling activity in the Marcellus/Utica *is* slowing down at the moment, but this downturn is different than previous downturns. Also, rumors are swirling about EQT. And, worries about competition coming from the Permian.
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EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2019 – Mandatory Reading

Last week MDN published a post from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (based on EIA data) that points out worldwide energy use over the next 30 years will increase another 50%, and most of it will still be provided by (yep), fossil fuels (see World Energy Use Up 50% Next 30 Years, Powered by Fossil Fuels). Forbes writer Jude Clemente noticed the EIA post as well. He dug in to the EIA’s “International Energy Outlook 2019” report on which the data is based and declares the full report is, “a glorious read, and one that I deem mandatory for all Americans.” We concur! Forthwith is the full report, along with Clemente’s observations about it.
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Ohio Air Emissions Decrease Faster than Natl Average Thx to Shale

The Consumer Energy Alliance (CEA) is calling attention to the “great untold story” in Ohio and across the nation, a story intentionally ignored over the past week of faux climate change protests by kids playing hooky from school. What is the untold story? That the United States in general, and Ohio in particular, is “leading the world in environmental stewardship and emission reduction.” How? Because of shale energy–specifically because of shale gas.
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World Energy Use Up 50% Next 30 Years, Powered by Fossil Fuels

Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), published an article yesterday in which their expert number crunchers predict the world will use 50% more energy than it does today by 2050–in 30 short years. While so-called renewable sources of energy (which include hydro as well as solar and wind) will see a big jump up in supplying that increased need, the very sobering observation is that then, as today, fossil fuels will continue to supply the lion’s share of energy worldwide. How much?
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SRBC Report: No Impact from Drilling on PA Watersheds, State Land

Susquehanna River Basin

The Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC) established the Remote Water Quality Monitoring Network (RWQMN) in January 2010 in response to natural gas drilling activities in the basin. Each year the SRBC issues an update/report on findings from the previous year. The report for 2018 was just released and it found, as all previous reports have found, that there are NO impacts from natural gas drilling on the water in the Susquehanna River Basin and its sub-basins, nor on PA state land within the basin.
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EIA Sep ’19 Drilling Report: M-U Growth Slows, Still a New Record

According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration, our favorite government agency), in the coming month of September, the U.S.’s seven major shale plays will produce a combined 82.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, and 8.8 million barrels of oil per day–a brand new record high for each. However, the rate of growth for both is finally starting to slow from the previous blistering pace we’ve seen over the past year or so.
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Report: Marcellus/Utica Contains 41% of ‘Potential’ NatGas in US

The Potential Gas Committee (PGC), a private non-profit organization loosely affiliated with the Colorado School of Mines, performs a comprehensive study of potential supplies of natural gas in the United States every two years. The latest biennial study has just been published and finds natural gas supplies in the “Atlantic” area, which includes the Marcellus/Utica (is primarily the M-U), once again leads the country–now with the highest supplies ever.
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