Dec. STEO Predicts 40% Higher NatGas Price for Winter 2024/25
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In October, the EIA predicted the average spot price for natural gas would be $3.10/MMBtu in 2025 (see Oct. STEO Predicts Lower Output, NatGas Price to Avg $3.10 in 2025). Last month, the agency reduced that number by $0.20 to $2.90/MMBtu (see Nov. STEO Predicts Henry Hub Gas Price to Average $2.90 in 2025). The yo-yo continues to gyrate. Yesterday’s report predicts the price will average $3.00/MMBtu for the rest of the winter and all of 2025—some 40% higher than the average price in November. Read More “Dec. STEO Predicts 40% Higher NatGas Price for Winter 2024/25”
The research arm of Enverus (formerly Drillinginfo), one of the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS platforms offering real-time access to analytics, insights, and benchmark cost and revenue data, earlier this week published a new report on the Utica Shale. The report specifically discusses Utica oil—the production performance for Utica wells, and the economics of the play. The analysts of Enverus conclude that the Utica is “America’s modest middleweight contender.” However, that’s not the biggest news. 
We’ve written a number of times about the Ohio Utica Shale and its beginnings with gas legend Aubrey McClendon, who, as CEO of Chesapeake Energy, was one of (if not THE) first to recognize the Utica as an oil play. However, it was a successor company, Encino Energy, that figured out how to coax large quantities of oil out of the Utica shale. Encino is one of the big success stories of drilling for oil in the Ohio Utica Shale. However, using the right tech is only part of the equation that transformed a company founded in 2017 into the #1 largest oil producer in Ohio and all of the Marcellus/Utica. 
Earlier this week, MDN told you about the final chapter in the tragedy of the Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) Refining Complex (see 
If we had a nickel for every peak oil prediction we’ve reported on over the years, we’d be rich! Every few months, somebody comes along to say that either oil production or oil demand is heading for a decline…real soon now, any day, it’s inevitable. And they list their reasons why we’re hitting peak and about to go into a decline. And every darned time, they’re wrong. We have another such prediction, but this one is a bit different. It comes from an investment advisor writing to other investors on the Seeking Alpha website, an investment advisor whose work we have shared with you in the past. It’s a column from someone whose opinion we respect. 
In June 2019, a series of explosions and a massive fire occurred at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) Refining Complex (see 
As we often say, we’re suckers for a good railroad story. There’s something magical about the clickety-clack of trains heading cross country. Shortline railroads play an important role in the Marcellus/Utica by transporting machinery, materials for drilling, and sand. But today’s story is not about shortlines but long-haul railroads. Here’s a fascinating fact: U.S. rail freight transported nearly 1.8 million metric tons of materials in 2023, with energy products, including coal, oil, and natural gas, being the most common. The number two most common product hauled (not even close) is agricultural products. 
We’ve written a number of times about the Ohio Utica Shale and its beginnings with gas legend Aubrey McClendon, who, as CEO of Chesapeake Energy, was one of (if not THE) first to recognize the Utica as an oil play. However, it was a successor company, Encino Energy, that figured out how to coax large quantities of oil out of the Utica shale. Encino is one of the big success stories of drilling for oil in the Ohio Utica Shale. Roughly six years ago, Encino, in partnership with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments), closed on buying Chesapeake Energy’s Ohio Utica assets for $2 billion (see 
EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in Trinidad and China), owns a huge 430,000+ acres of leases in the Ohio Utica. EOG calls its position the “Ohio Utica combo play” and now considers it one of the company’s “premium plays.” EOG concentrates on oil drilling in the Utica. As part of the company’s first quarter 2024 update, Keith Trasko, Senior VP for Exploration and Production at EOG, said Utica wells “compete with the best plays in America, very comparable to the Permian on a production per foot basis.” Wow! High praise indeed. The Utica is the new Permian…we like the sound of that!
When drilling for oil (or for natural gas), quite often, the hydrocarbon you’re not drilling for comes out of the ground along with the hydrocarbon you are drilling for. Natural gas coming out of the ground along with oil (in an oil play) is called “associated gas.” And in the Marcellus/Utica, other hydrocarbons (aside from methane) come out too, including ethane, propane, butane, and isobutane — called natural gas liquids (NGLs). Production of oil and NGLs are measured in barrels (Bbl), while methane is measured in thousand cubic feet (Mcf) or million Btus (MMBtu). Years ago, the oil and gas industry created a way to evaluate the total output for a given well or wells by converting all of the hydrocarbons into one unit, called barrels of oil equivalent (Boe). Not long after that came a comparison of how much each commodity sells for on an equivalent basis.
