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EIA Predicts Henry Hub to Avg $3.40 This Winter – Nov. STEO

Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Last month, the report predicted new all-time highs for natural gas production in 2023 (see EIA Boosts Prediction for Record-High NatGas Prod. 2023 – Oct. STEO). The latest monthly report, issued yesterday, revises those record-high predictions down just a smidge — essentially the same as last month. EIA projects that dry gas production will end up at 103.68 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 (down from 103.72) and rise to 105.12 Bcf/d in 2024 (down from 105.13). The current record high is 99.60 Bcf/d, set in 2022. We’re going to blow by that this year and next.
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NatGas Price Whacked Again – Drops $0.25 in One Day Due to Weather

Just when we were beginning to feel comfortable that maybe, just maybe, the price of natural gas would stay higher for longer instead of lower for longer, yesterday happened. Did you notice? The price for the “front month contract” of the NYMEX Henry Hub got whacked, falling a full 25 cents in a single day, closing at $3.26/MMBtu. It was the biggest one-day plunge in price since March of this year. What happened? As is typical, it’s because of the weather.
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Cold Weather to the Rescue! M-U Gas Prices Spike, Highest in Months

Have you noticed the nice rise in the price of gas? Yesterday, the NYMEX Henry Hub price rose $0.22 to close at $3.58/MMBtu (up 6.24% in a single day). Cool! Better yet, the spot price of natural gas in the Marcellus/Utica region is on the march, too. According to Argus Media, spot natural gas prices across the northeastern U.S. surged to the highest levels in months. Why? Weather. Specifically, cold weather. Example: The Columbia Gas Appalachia index, a “key indicator” for the price of gas from the Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania and surrounding states, more than doubled to $2.37/mmBtu on Monday, the highest since March 2nd. How high will it go?
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EIA Says Low Price for NatGas Led to Crash in Rig Count 2023

The Baker Hughes rig count has crashed this year compared to last year’s numbers. A few months ago, we began to chronicle the weekly rig count to keep track of this alarming situation (which we post about every Monday). U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts have taken notice of the crashing rig count and asked themselves: Why? It may seem obvious, but EIA points out in a new post on its Today in Energy website that the crash in the natural gas rig count directly correlates to the crash in the price of natural gas.
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EIA Boosts Prediction for Record-High NatGas Prod. 2023 – Oct. STEO

Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Last month, the report predicted new all-time highs for natural gas production in 2023 (see Record High NatGas Production & Demand in 2023 – EIA Sept. STEO). The latest monthly report, issued yesterday, revises those record-high predictions UP even more! EIA projects that dry gas production will end up at 103.72 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 and rise to 105.13 Bcf/d in 2024. The current record high is 99.60 Bcf/d, set in 2022.
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Now We’re Cookin’ with Gas! NYMEX Price Soars, Stays Above $3

click for larger version

Finally! We knew it would happen sooner or later. We committed to stop reporting on the price of natural gas unless and until the NYMEX went over $3/MMBtu and stayed there, which happened last week. The front-month NYMEX natural gas contract was close to $3 last Wednesday, closing at $2.99. On Thursday, the price closed at $3.19. Then last Friday, the price soared to $3.34. Bear in mind that all of this upward price action happened before the weekend terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel. Wars tend to upset many different markets, especially wars in the Middle East (and their effect on energy markets). However, yesterday, the price of NYMEX natgas went up another 4 cents to close at $3.38. So far this morning, the price is up even more. Will the price stay above $3 now? And is the NYMEX affecting the regional spot price in the M-U?
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M-U Production Slides as Regional Cash Prices Sink Below $1/MMBtu

In September, production from the Marcellus and Utica shales averaged just under 35.1 Bcf/d — down from a nearly two-year high at 35.3 Bcf/d in August, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Over the past three years, producers in the Marcellus/Utica have dialed back output in September. Why? Cooling temperatures that lead to falling gas demand which further leads to a crash in gas prices. How bad is the gas price crash? The Eastern Gas South trading hub near Pittsburgh, considered the benchmark for the M-U, saw cash prices trading around $0.80/MMBtu yesterday. Yes, 80 cents! The October gas contract at Eastern Gas South recently settled as low as $0.99/MMBtu. Ouch.
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Major U.S. Shale Drillers Hedged 2H23 Gas Production Avg. $3.35

According to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, large U.S. shale gas drillers (namely Marcellus/Utica drillers) have hedged (pre-sold at a specific price) an average of 50% of anticipated shale gas production for the second half of 2023. The average price of the hedges is $3.35/Mcf, far above the average NYMEX Henry Hub price that has been bumping along between $2.25 and $2.75. CNX Resources is the top hedger, hedging 80% of its production in 2H23 at $3.04/Mcf.
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CME Group Launching “Micro” Henry Hub Futures & Options Nov. 6

For traders who buy and sell NYMEX Henry Hub futures (and there is a fair number who read MDN), listen up! CME Group, which operates the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), announced it is launching Micro Henry Hub futures and options beginning November 6. The standard Henry Hub natural gas futures contract for a single contract trades 10,000 MMBtu of natural gas, equivalent to 10 million cubic feet (MMcf). The new Micro Henry Hub contract is one-tenth that size — 1,000 MMBtu, equivalent to 1 MMcf. The other major difference is that the standard Henry Hub contract costs $10 to execute, whereas the new Micro contract will cost just $1.
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Intl Gas Union’s 2023 Global Wholesale Gas Price Survey Report

According to the International Gas Union’s (IGU) 2023 Global Wholesale Gas Price Survey report (full copy below), 2022 was THE most turbulent year in the history of gas markets, as the global energy crisis intensified and the global price levels reached record highs. Last year saw record price levels, with Europe’s wholesale prices reaching over $30 per MMBtu. The average world price for natural gas reached $9.44 per MMBtu in 2022 — the highest ever — compared to a record low of $3.23 per MMBtu in 2020. Record high prices last year were seen in all regions apart from North America and the Former Soviet Union.
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Transco REAE, Warm Winter Portend Low Winter Gas Price in NY-NJ

According to analysts writing for S&P Global Commodity Insights, the long-range forecast from the U.S. National Weather Service calls for milder temperatures in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region this winter. Warm temps equal less natural gas usage. Williams’ Transco Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) project will partially come online in October, flowing an initial 450 MMcf/d (out of 829 MMcf/d) of Marcellus gas to PA, NJ, and Maryland. More supply with less demand is a classic economic prescription for lower prices in New York, New Jersey, and the Mid-Atlantic region. So says the S&P analysts.
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BofA Predicts NatGas Price Could Crash Below $2 in Early 2024

We continue to monitor the price of natural gas, which has remained mired in the mid-$2 range for months on end. Every time it seems like it might make a run for $3, the price slides–as it did yesterday (down $0.12 to close at $2.73). We spotted two somewhat contradictory stories about the price of gas, both published by Reuters. One story is about a prediction from Bank of America, which said in a note that if we have a mild winter (as some are predicting), it’s quite possible the price of natgas will crash below $2 during the first quarter of 2024.
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Reuters Predicts Decline in Oil & Gas Production – Delayed Reaction

When Russia illegally and immorally invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the price of oil and natural gas worldwide soared to record highs. Western countries pledged to wean themselves off Putin’s oil and gas, and Putin threatened them in return with cutting them off without notice. There was a lot of scrambling, and Europe filled its storage with oil and gas, so prices began to drop when the winter of 2022/2023 rolled around. Prices have continued to drop (except for oil, recently). With prices in the doldrums, drillers are drilling less. Rigs are being released. Yet production is still rising! It’s confusing–what’s happening?
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Predicting NatGas Price Thru Dec 2024 – High, Low & Likely

Over the past 12 months, the NYMEX Henry Hub price for natural gas (front month contract) has traded as high as $9.68/MMBtu (August 22, 2022) and as low as $2.01/MMbtu (April 13, 2023). Lately, we’ve been hovering around the $2.50 mark. One of the energy industry’s favorite parlor games is guessing where the price will go over the next year or so. Once a month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) hauls out its dart board and makes a prediction. Various analysts and consulting/analytics firms chime in from time to time. Today, we have a price prediction through the end of 2024 from a highly respected source: RBN Energy.
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HH Gas Price Finally Flirts with $3 Again; Is the Trend Our Friend?

Yesterday MDN editor Jim Willis had a nice chat with a renewing MDN subscriber (a landowner with wells and leases in Ohio). The question arose, “What do you see happening right now?” Jim’s response: “As long as the price of natural gas stays below $3, not much!” Jim made the point that price drives this industry, and ongoing prices in the basement aren’t helping. Can we get an amen? Both Jim and the subscriber agreed that gas prices may be heading higher soon. That conversation seems to have been prescient. Yesterday the front-month Henry Hub NYMEX futures price rocketed to a six-week high, close to $3 (closing at $2.96/Mcf). Are we finally going to go above, and stay above, $3 gas?
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EIA Predicts 2023 & 2024 Record High NatGas Production – Aug STEO

Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. The latest monthly report, issued Tuesday, predicts that U.S. natural gas production AND demand will rise to record highs in 2023. EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 103 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 and 104.12 Bcf/d in 2024. The current record high is 98.13 Bcf/d set in 2022.
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