EIA’s August STEO Cuts NatGas Spot Price Another $0.10 in ’25
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will head in the next 12 months. We joke about the predictions coming from a dartboard, given their seemingly random ups and downs. In this latest assessment, EIA dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025, again. The agency expects the HH price to average $3.60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.10 lower than last month’s forecast. EIA also dropped its 2026 forecast, now believing the gas price will average $4.30/MMBtu, down $0.10 from last month’s $4.40 (and WAY down from the estimate two months ago of $4.90 next year). Read More “EIA’s August STEO Cuts NatGas Spot Price Another $0.10 in ’25”
We spotted a Financial Times article with an intriguing title: Opec oil ‘price war’ will halt shale boom, say US producers. The FT is the UK equivalent of our Wall Street Journal. Although it tilts a bit left, the reporting is usually pretty reliable, so we trust it (for the most part). We learned a few important things from this article. First is that the break-even price for U.S. shale drillers to make a profit is $65 per barrel. If oil remains below that point, new drilling stops. Second, one producer claimed his company would not “put any more rigs out” until prices get back to, and stabilize at, $75 per barrel. 
Yesterday, the “front month” contract (for September) for the NYMEX futures natural gas price crashed down 15.1 cents to close at $2.932/MMBtu. Bummer. The $3 level is an important psychological barrier, and we just violated it. The questions, as always, are (1) why did the price go lower (what’s rattling around inside the heads of traders); and (2) where is the price likely to go next? We aim to try to answer those questions in this post. 
Freeport LNG has become something of a punchline with respect to the frequent outages experienced at the facility. Except, it’s no laughing matter. Outages at Freeport have happened so frequently that we’ve lost count. Wednesday, the facility was offline again, affecting gas flows to (and from) the facility on Wednesday and Thursday. This time, the reason for the outage was that power to the City of Freeport and surrounding communities, including the LNG plant, was out. Which raises the question, doesn’t Freeport LNG have a backup generator for times like that? Apparently not. When Freeport goes down, it affects natural gas prices here at home and around the world. Yes, this one facility has that kind of impact. 
The NYMEX “front month” futures contract for natural gas (August contract) slid lower yesterday for a second day in a row. The price dropped 12.6 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtus), or nearly 4%, to $3.214 yesterday. The price was down 19.8 cents (nearly 6%) over the past two days. According to one analyst (whom we trust), this “decisive breakdown” in natural gas puts the $3.10 support level at risk, opening the path to deeper downside targets, including $2.97 and $2.79. Yuck. 
In yesterday’s MDN post about the spike in the NYMEX futures price for natural gas, MDN told you that traders were targeting the next significant trading target to be $3.84/MMBtu (see 
We experienced a nice jolt in the NYMEX futures price for natural gas yesterday, rising 16.7 cents to close at $3.748/MMBtu. Those in the know say the main factors behind the price increase were (a) a hot weather forecast beginning next week for the eastern half of the country, and (b) lingering uncertainty over the Israel-Iran war and its potential impact on oil and LNG shipments in the Persian Gulf. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA once again dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025. The agency expects the HH price to average $4.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.10 lower than last month’s forecast (and $0.30 less than the forecast from two months ago). However, EIA expects the annual average price in 2026 to be $4.90/MMBtu, which is $0.10 higher than last month’s forecast and $0.30 higher than the forecast from two months ago. An interesting dichotomy—that prices will trend lower this year but higher next year. 
Banks remain confident in long-term energy fundamentals despite significant trade policy turbulence, according to the Spring 2025 Haynes Boone Energy Bank Price Deck Survey (full copy below). The survey, now in its 12th edition, is a leading source of information for energy lenders and producers, providing crucial details on commodity price expectations. Based on internal data from 28 banks, the latest survey indicates that while oil and gas prices have fluctuated in the short term, long-term forecasts remain consistent with past projections, suggesting that banks view recent economic changes as temporary. Banks expect natural gas prices to stay strong, in the $3.50-$3.75/MMBtu range through 2026, due to high LNG export demand and growing energy needs from artificial intelligence infrastructure. 
Here’s a third natural gas price prediction, from Morningstar DBRS, a top company that gives independent credit ratings and opinions for businesses, governments, banks, and financial projects worldwide. Earlier this week, Morningstar published a commentary/report called: “Summer Heat Likely to Add to High LNG Export Demand, Tightening the North American Gas Market” (full copy below). In the report, Morningstar analysts write that they expect the North American natural gas supply and demand balance to tighten from summer heat-driven peak electricity demand and expanding LNG exports, supporting higher bids for spot gas prices. Analysts believe the average price for natural gas will hit $3.50/MMBtu both in 2025 and in 2026. 
Two days ago, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for January through March 2025 (full copy below). There were 93 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 1Q25, a decrease of 7 wells (-7%) compared to 1Q24. However, 1Q’s spud number increased by 9 (11%) from the 84 drilled in the prior quarter, 4Q24. Natural gas production volume was 1,941 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 1Q25, up 56 Bcf (3%) from 1,885 Bcf produced in 1Q24, and up 72 Bcf (4%) from the 1,869 Bcf produced in 4Q24. The big news revolved around price. The average Pennsylvania spot hub price was $3.69, an increase of $2.00 (117.5%) from the prior year. 
We need a scorecard to keep track of all the ups and downs at the problem-plagued Freeport LNG export facility, located near Galveston, Texas. We don’t think it’s a stretch to say the plant, which is the third-largest LNG export plant in the U.S., has been down almost as much as it has been up since first coming online in 2019 (
The Marcellus Shale has a distinct advantage over every other gas-focused shale play in the country: It’s WAY cheaper than anywhere else to produce gas in the Marcellus. It’s called the break-even point, when a driller makes a profit after paying for expenses. The break-even in the Marcellus is *below* $2/Mcf (thousand cubic feet) for many drillers, including giants EQT and Expand Energy. Other gas-focused plays, like the Haynesville, cost a lot more—$3.50/Mcf or more for break-even. But then, the Haynesville is much closer to Gulf Coast LNG export facilities, so it costs much less to pipeline the gas. That’s OK, the Marcellus has a geographic advantage, too. 
Yesterday, the NYMEX “front month” natural gas price index got whacked and whacked good. The price sank $0.221 from the previous day, down to a closing price of 3.113/MMBtu. Below-average temperatures are forecasted in most of the eastern half of the country over the next 6-10 days, meaning less use of natgas for cooling. Production is steady, and gas heading into storage is forecasted to be high. The bottom line is that too much supply for not enough demand is sinking prices. The question is, how low will the price go? Will we once again break through the $3 barrier?