NYMEX Futures Price Soars Again, Up 10.3 Cents to Important $3.85
In yesterday’s MDN post about the spike in the NYMEX futures price for natural gas, MDN told you that traders were targeting the next significant trading target to be $3.84/MMBtu (see Hot Weather Forecast Prompts NYMEX to Close Up 17 Cents @ $3.75). And guess what? We hit it yesterday, closing at $3.851/MMBtu (up 10.3 cents from the prior close). We also told you that traders expect the next important price point to hit after that would be a close of $4.08-$4.12. If we hit that level, what would be next? According to gas traders, the price would likely make a run at $4.46. Wow! Read More “NYMEX Futures Price Soars Again, Up 10.3 Cents to Important $3.85”
We experienced a nice jolt in the NYMEX futures price for natural gas yesterday, rising 16.7 cents to close at $3.748/MMBtu. Those in the know say the main factors behind the price increase were (a) a hot weather forecast beginning next week for the eastern half of the country, and (b) lingering uncertainty over the Israel-Iran war and its potential impact on oil and LNG shipments in the Persian Gulf. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA once again dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025. The agency expects the HH price to average $4.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.10 lower than last month’s forecast (and $0.30 less than the forecast from two months ago). However, EIA expects the annual average price in 2026 to be $4.90/MMBtu, which is $0.10 higher than last month’s forecast and $0.30 higher than the forecast from two months ago. An interesting dichotomy—that prices will trend lower this year but higher next year. 
Banks remain confident in long-term energy fundamentals despite significant trade policy turbulence, according to the Spring 2025 Haynes Boone Energy Bank Price Deck Survey (full copy below). The survey, now in its 12th edition, is a leading source of information for energy lenders and producers, providing crucial details on commodity price expectations. Based on internal data from 28 banks, the latest survey indicates that while oil and gas prices have fluctuated in the short term, long-term forecasts remain consistent with past projections, suggesting that banks view recent economic changes as temporary. Banks expect natural gas prices to stay strong, in the $3.50-$3.75/MMBtu range through 2026, due to high LNG export demand and growing energy needs from artificial intelligence infrastructure. 
Here’s a third natural gas price prediction, from Morningstar DBRS, a top company that gives independent credit ratings and opinions for businesses, governments, banks, and financial projects worldwide. Earlier this week, Morningstar published a commentary/report called: “Summer Heat Likely to Add to High LNG Export Demand, Tightening the North American Gas Market” (full copy below). In the report, Morningstar analysts write that they expect the North American natural gas supply and demand balance to tighten from summer heat-driven peak electricity demand and expanding LNG exports, supporting higher bids for spot gas prices. Analysts believe the average price for natural gas will hit $3.50/MMBtu both in 2025 and in 2026. 
Two days ago, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for January through March 2025 (full copy below). There were 93 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 1Q25, a decrease of 7 wells (-7%) compared to 1Q24. However, 1Q’s spud number increased by 9 (11%) from the 84 drilled in the prior quarter, 4Q24. Natural gas production volume was 1,941 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 1Q25, up 56 Bcf (3%) from 1,885 Bcf produced in 1Q24, and up 72 Bcf (4%) from the 1,869 Bcf produced in 4Q24. The big news revolved around price. The average Pennsylvania spot hub price was $3.69, an increase of $2.00 (117.5%) from the prior year. 
We need a scorecard to keep track of all the ups and downs at the problem-plagued Freeport LNG export facility, located near Galveston, Texas. We don’t think it’s a stretch to say the plant, which is the third-largest LNG export plant in the U.S., has been down almost as much as it has been up since first coming online in 2019 (
The Marcellus Shale has a distinct advantage over every other gas-focused shale play in the country: It’s WAY cheaper than anywhere else to produce gas in the Marcellus. It’s called the break-even point, when a driller makes a profit after paying for expenses. The break-even in the Marcellus is *below* $2/Mcf (thousand cubic feet) for many drillers, including giants EQT and Expand Energy. Other gas-focused plays, like the Haynesville, cost a lot more—$3.50/Mcf or more for break-even. But then, the Haynesville is much closer to Gulf Coast LNG export facilities, so it costs much less to pipeline the gas. That’s OK, the Marcellus has a geographic advantage, too. 
Yesterday, the NYMEX “front month” natural gas price index got whacked and whacked good. The price sank $0.221 from the previous day, down to a closing price of 3.113/MMBtu. Below-average temperatures are forecasted in most of the eastern half of the country over the next 6-10 days, meaning less use of natgas for cooling. Production is steady, and gas heading into storage is forecasted to be high. The bottom line is that too much supply for not enough demand is sinking prices. The question is, how low will the price go? Will we once again break through the $3 barrier? 
Yeah, it happened. And we’re not happy about it. Yesterday, the NYMEX “front month” futures contract for May sank below and stayed below $3/MMBtu, closing at $2.930/MMBtu, some 9.2 cents lower than the closing price from the day before. It was the lowest settlement price since Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. The spot price for physically traded natural gas slipped, too. If there was any bright spot, the NGI Appalachia Regional Average price, an average of all the spot price trades in the Marcellus/Utica region, gained a penny yesterday. 
Energy analysts say the front-month contract for NYMEX natural gas (for May) is “flirting with [the] $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) psychological level.” At one point during trading yesterday, the price tested an intraday low of $2.995. Yuck. Are we heading back below $3 again? Unfortunately, analysts are saying that although $3 is a strong psychological barrier, “technicals indicate further weakness ahead.” Sounds a bit ominous. 
The NYMEX natural gas price for May delivery (referred to as the “front month” contract) decreased by 28.20 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtu), or 8.0%, last week. Over the past three weeks, the NYMEX price has trended down, losing 82 cents or 20.2%. What the heck is going on? Analysts say it’s a mix of “shifting fundamentals, cash market weakness, and uncertainty caused by President Trump’s tariff campaign.” 
From time to time, we like to check in on what the price of natural gas is doing, both the “futures” NYMEX price (front month) and the spot price at various points around the Marcellus/Utica. We’re certainly well off our highs over the past month from when the NYMEX price hit $4.49 on Monday, March 10, 2025. We like it above $4. Yesterday, the NYMEX price closed up 2.3% to $3.95, close to $4.00. Where will the price head next? Up or down? Will we go above the psychological $4 barrier again soon? 
The NYMEX natural gas “front month” futures contract (currently the April contract) closed at its highest level yesterday since Dec. 29, 2022, closing at $4.4910 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). That was a gain of 9.2 cents from Friday’s close. However, it was quite the roller coaster, at least early in the day, as the price flirted with $5. At one point the price got as high as $4.901. Although weather is typically the factor driving price gains, this time it was trader psychology and concerns that U.S. natural gas storage levels could tighten further ahead of the summer air-conditioning season (less supply with the same or increasing demand).