EIA’s May STEO Predicts Record-High NatGas, Electric Use in 25/26
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook last week, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price. The agency expects the HH price to average $4.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.20 lower than last month’s forecast. However, EIA expects the annual average price in 2026 to be $4.80/MMBtu, which is $0.20 higher than last month’s forecast. EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price will average $4.20/MMBtu during the third quarter of 2025. Read More “EIA’s May STEO Predicts Record-High NatGas, Electric Use in 25/26”
Yeah, it happened. And we’re not happy about it. Yesterday, the NYMEX “front month” futures contract for May sank below and stayed below $3/MMBtu, closing at $2.930/MMBtu, some 9.2 cents lower than the closing price from the day before. It was the lowest settlement price since Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. The spot price for physically traded natural gas slipped, too. If there was any bright spot, the NGI Appalachia Regional Average price, an average of all the spot price trades in the Marcellus/Utica region, gained a penny yesterday. 
Energy analysts say the front-month contract for NYMEX natural gas (for May) is “flirting with [the] $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) psychological level.” At one point during trading yesterday, the price tested an intraday low of $2.995. Yuck. Are we heading back below $3 again? Unfortunately, analysts are saying that although $3 is a strong psychological barrier, “technicals indicate further weakness ahead.” Sounds a bit ominous. 
The NYMEX natural gas price for May delivery (referred to as the “front month” contract) decreased by 28.20 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtu), or 8.0%, last week. Over the past three weeks, the NYMEX price has trended down, losing 82 cents or 20.2%. What the heck is going on? Analysts say it’s a mix of “shifting fundamentals, cash market weakness, and uncertainty caused by President Trump’s tariff campaign.” 
From time to time, we like to check in on what the price of natural gas is doing, both the “futures” NYMEX price (front month) and the spot price at various points around the Marcellus/Utica. We’re certainly well off our highs over the past month from when the NYMEX price hit $4.49 on Monday, March 10, 2025. We like it above $4. Yesterday, the NYMEX price closed up 2.3% to $3.95, close to $4.00. Where will the price head next? Up or down? Will we go above the psychological $4 barrier again soon? 
The NYMEX natural gas “front month” futures contract (currently the April contract) closed at its highest level yesterday since Dec. 29, 2022, closing at $4.4910 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). That was a gain of 9.2 cents from Friday’s close. However, it was quite the roller coaster, at least early in the day, as the price flirted with $5. At one point the price got as high as $4.901. Although weather is typically the factor driving price gains, this time it was trader psychology and concerns that U.S. natural gas storage levels could tighten further ahead of the summer air-conditioning season (less supply with the same or increasing demand). 
Is this the beginning of the “running of the bulls” with respect to natural gas traders? According to a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, quite possibly. Yesterday the NYMEX Henry Hub “front month” futures price closed up 22.8 cents at $4.35/MMBtu—the highest closing price since Dec. 30, 2022 (more than two years). Typically, weather, like a major cold snap, is the driver. But not this time. According to PRICE Futures Group, lower natgas inventories (in storage), higher demand from Europe for our LNG, and the prospect of a dry, hot summer have combined to drive prices higher. Add to that, we now officially have a tariff trade war with Canada, with our friends to the north slapping an export tax on electricity and natural gas flowing to our country, and the gas trading bulls were on a stampede. 
U.S. natural gas futures jumped 7.5% on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.8 Bcf/d so far in March, up from a record 15.6 Bcf/d in February, as new units at Venture Global’s 3.2-Bcf/d Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana entered service. 
Yesterday, MDN noted the NYMEX “front month” futures price of natural gas had jumped 28.2 cents to close just above $4/MMBtu (see 
Hold on, everyone. The NYMEX natural gas price roller coaster is climbing up the next hill, and there is no telling how high it will go—or how quickly it will go down again. Yesterday, the NYMEX “front month” (March contract) for natural gas futures based on the price at the Henry Hub soared 28.2 cents to close at $4.0070 (call it $4.01). It was the sixth day in a row that the price has gone higher. The current cold snap (weather) in the central and eastern sections of the country is credited with the rise in the price. NGI reports its nationwide average for the spot price of natgas soared $1.010 to $6.880, its highest level since Winter Storm Enzo in mid-January. 
According to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, U.S. natural gas output stands near an all-time high as a period of strong demand and improved prices enable a production resurgence. Output averaged 106 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) over the latest weekend. In the Marcellus/Utica, production over the last seven days has come in at nearly 36 Bcf/d, up about 1.7 Bcf/d, or 5%, compared with the prior week. Single-day volumes at 36.3 Bcf over each of the last several days mark highs not recorded since winter 2023-2024. 
We sometimes poke fun at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predictions, accusing the analysts of using a dart board to generate the estimates they issue, especially with the future price of natural gas. But honestly, they have a tough job. Price is a complex issue with a lot of factors. Even though the EIA’s track record has sometimes been off by a lot, it remains the one source most quoted by the media and experts worldwide regarding future price predictions. In yesterday’s Today in Energy web publication, EIA says it “expects higher wholesale U.S. natural gas prices as demand increases.” Its latest forecast for the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price is that the overall average for all of 2025 natgas will average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). EIA expects that number to increase in 2026 to an average of $4.00/MMBtu. Is that realistic? 
Baby, it’s cold outside! And it’s getting colder beginning this weekend and moving into next week. The cold weather, combined with less natural gas in storage (less than the average), has increased the NYMEX “front month” futures contract for natural gas. Yesterday, the NYMEX price closed at $4.2580 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the highest close since Dec. 30, 2022. Temps across the eastern half of the country (especially in the northeast) are set to hit lows not seen in years beginning next week. We think prices for NYMEX and many spot prices at trading hubs will spike higher.