S&P Study: More U.S. LNG Exports WON’T Raise Domestic Gas Prices
This is VERY interesting. The nonpartisan S&P Global, which never (we mean NEVER) seeks to ruffle political feathers, released a study on LNG exports on the very same day as the Biden/Granholm Department of Energy released its LNG export study. The S&P study, which came out a few hours earlier than the DOE study, says more U.S. LNG exports will NOT raise the domestic price of natural gas, at least not appreciably. The Biden-corrupted DOE report says the opposite, that more LNG exports will cause domestic natural gas prices to go through the roof (and consequently, we shouldn’t build more LNG export facilities). Who do you believe? The company that is one of THE largest financial analysis companies in the world, that manages the S&P 500 Index and S&P credit ratings? Or lying, sore-loser politicians like the ditsy Jennifer Granholm and Joementia Biden? Read More “S&P Study: More U.S. LNG Exports WON’T Raise Domestic Gas Prices”
You can go crazy trying to forecast where the price of natural gas is heading—and why. Lately the price has stayed above $3/MMBtu. That’s always a happy thing. Will the price stay continue to stay above $3? Will it go up even more? Or fall below $3? Are the “bulls” (those who think the price will go higher) or the “bears” (those who believe the price will go lower) in charge at this point? These are all great questions, and the answer is, “It depends on who you read and listen to.” 
Earlier this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. As part of our coverage, we highlighted the news that the EIA is predicting natural gas prices this winter and for all of 2025 will be roughly 40% higher than the Henry Hub price for gas in November (see 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In October, the EIA predicted the average spot price for natural gas would be $3.10/MMBtu in 2025 (see 
Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for July through September 2024 (full copy below). There were 63 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 3Q24, the same exact number as in 2Q24, but 3Q’s number was a decrease of 39 wells (-38%) compared to the third quarter of 2023. The number of new wells drilled, 63, is the lowest since 2008 (except for 2Q24, which was also 63). This was the eighth consecutive quarter with a year-over-year (YOY) decline in new wells spud. Natural gas production volume was 1,838 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 3Q24, down 33 Bcf (1.8%) from the 1,871 Bcf produced in 3Q23. 
We don’t begin to get excited about the price of natural gas unless and until it’s above $3/MMBtu and it stays there for a while. We’re there. Yesterday, the “front month” contract for NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas closed up 6.2 cents (1.8%) at $3.43/MMBtu. Over the past two days, the price closed up 30.2 cents (9.65%). Yesterday’s closing price was a 52-week high. Finally. Why the dramatic increase? Weather. 
The incoming Trump administration will have a big emphasis on natural gas, including LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports. Lazy journalists and lazy economists try to scare the general public into believing more (new) LNG exports from this country will cause the price of domestic natural gas to skyrocket. Their arguments presume no increase in natgas production, which is a fallacy. There are many reasons why the price of natgas isn’t going to skyrocket from more LNG export approvals. 
The analysts at the federal U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) are cautioning (we’d call it warning) that the global natural gas market may experience a tighter supply-demand balance this winter than in the prior two winters. Why? Several reasons, chief among is the coming colder winter. El Niño changes to La Niña this season. La Niña generally brings colder, drier weather to the Northern Hemisphere. But weather isn’t the only factor for EIA. So, too, is the lack of growth this winter in new LNG exports from the U.S. 
Reuters predicts a sharp increase in U.S. LNG exports to European destinations “in the coming weeks.” Why? Because “the price spread between domestic natural gas and Europe’s main gas pricing hub hit one-year highs.” What the heck does that mean? We will explain it below. 
Yesterday, the NYMEX natural gas futures price for the “front month” (November) contract and the next contract in line to take over after today (the December contract) both dropped like a rock. The November contract (called the prompt month) dropped 25.1 cents to close at $2.309/MMBtu. The December contract, which becomes the prompt month tomorrow, dropped 22.9 cents to close at $2.863. Why the drop? It depends on who you ask, but the warm weather in the northeast seems to be one of the primary reasons. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently published an interesting post about natural gas pricing hubs in North America. There are nearly 200 such pricing hubs. The hubs “provide transactional flexibility to buyers and sellers in the natural gas industry.” As we’ve pointed out before, there is no one “price” for natural gas. Prices at various trading hubs can vary significantly. All pricing hubs compare themselves to the Henry Hub “benchmark” hub in Southern Louisiana. You may read about such-and-such as a hub trading a “discount” or “premium” to the HH. The EIA post explains how these hubs work and provides examples from various locations around the country, including three hubs in the northeast that flow Marcellus/Utica molecules. 
While there are a number of interstate pipelines that crisscross the Marcellus/Utica, there is one pipeline system that is key to moving molecules out of our region to other markets, particularly in the southeast and the Gulf Coast: Transcontinental Gas Pipeline LLC (Transco), owned by Williams. Transco stretches from the Gulf Coast to New York City and was originally designed to flow gas produced in the Gulf northward. A number of years ago, Williams reversed the flow on Transco, and most of the time, it now flows M-U molecules southward to Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and beyond. When sections of Transco undergo maintenance, flows are reduced, driving down spot prices for natgas sold by drillers to the pipeline but raising the price paid by customers on the other end of the pipeline. And when maintenance is done and flows return, it reverses.