NYMEX NatGas Price Hits 52-Week High of $3.43/MMBtu
We don’t begin to get excited about the price of natural gas unless and until it’s above $3/MMBtu and it stays there for a while. We’re there. Yesterday, the “front month” contract for NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas closed up 6.2 cents (1.8%) at $3.43/MMBtu. Over the past two days, the price closed up 30.2 cents (9.65%). Yesterday’s closing price was a 52-week high. Finally. Why the dramatic increase? Weather. Read More “NYMEX NatGas Price Hits 52-Week High of $3.43/MMBtu”
The incoming Trump administration will have a big emphasis on natural gas, including LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports. Lazy journalists and lazy economists try to scare the general public into believing more (new) LNG exports from this country will cause the price of domestic natural gas to skyrocket. Their arguments presume no increase in natgas production, which is a fallacy. There are many reasons why the price of natgas isn’t going to skyrocket from more LNG export approvals. 
The analysts at the federal U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) are cautioning (we’d call it warning) that the global natural gas market may experience a tighter supply-demand balance this winter than in the prior two winters. Why? Several reasons, chief among is the coming colder winter. El Niño changes to La Niña this season. La Niña generally brings colder, drier weather to the Northern Hemisphere. But weather isn’t the only factor for EIA. So, too, is the lack of growth this winter in new LNG exports from the U.S. 
Reuters predicts a sharp increase in U.S. LNG exports to European destinations “in the coming weeks.” Why? Because “the price spread between domestic natural gas and Europe’s main gas pricing hub hit one-year highs.” What the heck does that mean? We will explain it below. 
Yesterday, the NYMEX natural gas futures price for the “front month” (November) contract and the next contract in line to take over after today (the December contract) both dropped like a rock. The November contract (called the prompt month) dropped 25.1 cents to close at $2.309/MMBtu. The December contract, which becomes the prompt month tomorrow, dropped 22.9 cents to close at $2.863. Why the drop? It depends on who you ask, but the warm weather in the northeast seems to be one of the primary reasons. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently published an interesting post about natural gas pricing hubs in North America. There are nearly 200 such pricing hubs. The hubs “provide transactional flexibility to buyers and sellers in the natural gas industry.” As we’ve pointed out before, there is no one “price” for natural gas. Prices at various trading hubs can vary significantly. All pricing hubs compare themselves to the Henry Hub “benchmark” hub in Southern Louisiana. You may read about such-and-such as a hub trading a “discount” or “premium” to the HH. The EIA post explains how these hubs work and provides examples from various locations around the country, including three hubs in the northeast that flow Marcellus/Utica molecules. 
Once a month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. What did the October 2024 STEO, issued yesterday, show? EIA’s analysts believe U.S. natural gas production will decline in 2024 while demand will rise to a record high this year. EIA predicts the average spot price for natural gas for all of 2024 will end up being $2.30/MMBtu, up $0.10 from its prediction last month. The agency said the average for 2025 will be $3.10/MMBtu, which is the same prediction as last month. 
While there are a number of interstate pipelines that crisscross the Marcellus/Utica, there is one pipeline system that is key to moving molecules out of our region to other markets, particularly in the southeast and the Gulf Coast: Transcontinental Gas Pipeline LLC (Transco), owned by Williams. Transco stretches from the Gulf Coast to New York City and was originally designed to flow gas produced in the Gulf northward. A number of years ago, Williams reversed the flow on Transco, and most of the time, it now flows M-U molecules southward to Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and beyond. When sections of Transco undergo maintenance, flows are reduced, driving down spot prices for natgas sold by drillers to the pipeline but raising the price paid by customers on the other end of the pipeline. And when maintenance is done and flows return, it reverses. 
Toby Rice, CEO of EQT Corporation, currently the largest natural gas producer in the U.S., spoke yesterday at the Gastech event in Houston. Rice expressed his view that the Henry Hub price for natural gas will remain below $3/MMBtu “in the short term.” He also had thoughts on how long companies like his will continue to curtail natgas production. Rice said curtailments will “ease by next year” when more LNG exports begin to pick up. Said another way, Rice expects to continue holding back at least some supply for the balance of this year. 
In yet another attempt to deflect attention away from Kamala Harris’ extreme position on fracking (she wanted to ban it completely everywhere in 2019), mainstream news continues to publish stories on other Pennsylvania energy topics. For example, yesterday, the New York Times published a story with this headline: “Big Energy Issue in Pennsylvania Is Low Natural Gas Prices. Not Fracking.” We forced ourselves to read it all the way through. We “took one for the team,” so you won’t have to. The story started out fine and made some legitimate points. The NYT article is (more or less) right as far as it goes. The problem is that the article doesn’t go far enough. It stops with only half of the story told. Here at MDN, we tell you the whole story—all of the facts, not just some of the facts. 
There’s just no way to sugarcoat the fact that the low low price for natural gas is having an impact on shale drillers in the Marcellus/Utica. According to an analyst with RBN Energy, a price plunge to near the $2/MMBtu level in early 2023 “crippled” financial results for the companies RBN monitors that are gas-focused (namely M-U companies). However, most producers on the RBN list have remained in the black through spending less and cutting back on production. Down but far from out. How did the major M-U companies that are publicly traded perform in 2Q24? We have the numbers below. 
Despite one of the hottest summers on record, natural gas prices are in the crapper. The abysmal price situation is causing big drillers in the Marcellus/Utica, like EQT and Coterra, to cut back even further on natural gas production, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal. Coterra CEO Tom Jorden recently told investors that “gas markets are oversupplied,” and his company will trim production by an extra 325 MMcf/d (see