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Earlier this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. As part of our coverage, we highlighted the news that the EIA is predicting natural gas prices this winter and for all of 2025 will be roughly 40% higher than the Henry Hub price for gas in November (see
Dec. STEO Predicts 40% Higher NatGas Price for Winter 2024/25). Here is "the rest of the story." Gas prices will be higher now and into 2025 because the Henry Hub spot price of natural gas in November hit
record all-time lows (since 1997). No wonder the price will "soar" by 40% compared with November---it's not a very high bar to exceed. In fact, the ten lowest Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas (since 1997) all happened in 2024, with
four of those low prices happening in November.
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