Gas Trader Predicts NatGas $2.50 in 2024, $3.00+ in 2025 & Beyond
Yes, we’ve been keeping an eye on the (pathetic) price of natural gas as it flounders and flops. The NYMEX Henry Hub front-month contract briefly went above $3/MMBtu earlier this year, but since that time, it’s had a hard time staying above $2. It’s depressing. From time to time, we bring you predictions from various studies and government agencies. Just yesterday, we told you that EIA’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook predicts an average HH price of $2.50 in 2024, and $3.30 in 2025 (see July STEO Predicts U.S. Natgas Output Declines, Demand Rises 2024). The people who create the price — natural gas traders — often provide unique insights. We have one such trader’s insights into what he believes will happen for the balance of 2024 and into 2025.
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Must be it’s an election year. How do we know? The desperate Democrats are doing their best to distract and focus attention away from the decrepit, mentally impaired Joe Biden by accusing “Big Oil” of conspiring with OPEC to keep oil prices high. Except oil prices aren’t all that high. U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Communist (who pretends to be a Democrat) from Rhode Island, is “demanding” all sorts of internal communications from “Big Oil” companies in a new witch hunt he’s launched into this earth-shattering matter. Sheldon Whitehouse is a LOSER in all capitals.
Last Friday, Morningstar DBRS published a commentary titled, “Record-High Temperatures Boost Power Demand but Ample Gas Inventories Prevent a Bigger Jump in Prices” (full copy below). Since early March, U.S. and European natural gas prices have climbed steadily in the anticipation — and eventual onset — of much warmer than normal early summer temperatures even as producers curbed supply to contend with the glut built up during the past mild winter. Although U.S. and European gas storage inventories have been drawn down from early 2024, they remain high for this time of year. Large inventories are preventing prices from moving higher, says Morningstar analysts. It’s classic economics — more supply with the same demand equals lower prices.
The price of natural gas traded at the Henry Hub (HH) in Southern Louisiana is THE benchmark price used for the entire industry in the U.S. All other prices are compared to the HH. The HH serves as the official delivery location for futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The hub is owned by Sabine Pipe Line LLC and has access to many of the major gas markets in the United States, hence its use as the benchmark. A major trading hub in the Marcellus/Utica, Columbia Gas, tended to follow the HH, rising when HH went up and falling when HH lost value. It’s never a one-to-one correlation, but it’s close. That is, until the past year, when, according to analysts with Argus Media, the Columbia Gas trading hub became “untethered” from the HH.
Price volatility is how much and how fast a price, like the NYMEX futures price of natural gas at the Henry Hub, changes. How much the price “swings” up or down, and how suddenly, is a measure of volatility. In 2022, when the price of natgas spiked to new multi-year highs, it did so quickly. The price in 2022 also came down about as quickly as it rose, meaning extreme volatility. Since early 2022, NYMEX prices, in general, along with volatility, have settled down. The extreme price swings are gone — at least for now. Sadly, higher prices for natgas are also gone for now.
According to Bloomberg News, commodities traders are “bracing for a record-smashing summer that will shake up commodities.” Bloomberg falsely states that people around the world “are already living through the havoc brought on by global temperatures that are breaking records.” Bloomberg ominously warns, “It’s about to get a lot worse.” Nothing sells like bad news, even if the bad news is blatantly false. In a hilarious statement in the same article, Bloomberg attributes high inflation under Joementia to global warming. Talk about sleazy and sick. Based on assumptions that Mom Earth will toast this summer, Bloomberg predicts natgas prices will jump by 50% this summer, to $4/MMBtu, because of all the extra electricity required for air conditioning.
The NYMEX futures price for natural gas has been trending higher lately. It closed down a nickel on Friday, but overall, the trend has been up, up, and away. Since price is so important, we cover the topic frequently. Lately, we’ve made the following points (in various posts): (1) Natural gas production is declining, thanks to drillers like EQT, Chesapeake, and Antero curtailments. (2) LNG export demand is increasing with Freeport back online and a couple of new plants coming online soon. Both of those factors combine to drive the price higher. However, there’s another factor at work to keep prices lower.
Have you noticed? The NYMEX price of natural gas has been on an upward trend over the past week or so. We’ve actually broken the $2 barrier, and it continues to climb. Which begs the question, why? There are typically a number of factors combined to drive the price. This time around, we think we can boil it down to a classic economics principle — there’s more demand and less supply. The demand is coming from the problem-plagued Freeport LNG facility, which is rockin’ and rollin’ once again. Lower supply is coming from fewer natgas drilling rigs in operation.
It must be its “predict the future price of natgas” season, along with tax season. Yesterday, we told you that BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, hauled out its crystal ball to make predictions about the “front month” contract price for NYMEX natural gas (based on the Henry Hub) for the next five years, beginning with 2024 (see