JP Morgan Predicts Henry Hub Avg Price $2.88 in 2024, $4.75 in 2025
In a companion post today, we brought you Bloomberg’s prediction of $4 natgas this summer based on the false premise of wild, scorching heat from man-made global warming. Whatever. This post contains predictions by analysts with J.P. Morgan for the price of natural gas for the rest of this year and into 2025. J.P. Morgan’s predictions are grounded in reality, not wild speculation like Bloomberg’s. J.P. Morgan predicts the Henry Hub price to average $2.88 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2024 and $4.75 per MMBtu in 2025. They break it down quarter by quarter…
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The NYMEX futures price for natural gas has been trending higher lately. It closed down a nickel on Friday, but overall, the trend has been up, up, and away. Since price is so important, we cover the topic frequently. Lately, we’ve made the following points (in various posts): (1) Natural gas production is declining, thanks to drillers like EQT, Chesapeake, and Antero curtailments. (2) LNG export demand is increasing with Freeport back online and a couple of new plants coming online soon. Both of those factors combine to drive the price higher. However, there’s another factor at work to keep prices lower.
Have you noticed? The NYMEX price of natural gas has been on an upward trend over the past week or so. We’ve actually broken the $2 barrier, and it continues to climb. Which begs the question, why? There are typically a number of factors combined to drive the price. This time around, we think we can boil it down to a classic economics principle — there’s more demand and less supply. The demand is coming from the problem-plagued Freeport LNG facility, which is rockin’ and rollin’ once again. Lower supply is coming from fewer natgas drilling rigs in operation.
When drilling for oil (or for natural gas), quite often, the hydrocarbon you’re not drilling for comes out of the ground along with the hydrocarbon you are drilling for. Natural gas coming out of the ground along with oil (in an oil play) is called “associated gas.” And in the Marcellus/Utica, other hydrocarbons (aside from methane) come out too, including ethane, propane, butane, and isobutane — called natural gas liquids (NGLs). Production of oil and NGLs are measured in barrels (Bbl), while methane is measured in thousand cubic feet (Mcf) or million Btus (MMBtu). Years ago, the oil and gas industry created a way to evaluate the total output for a given well or wells by converting all of the hydrocarbons into one unit, called barrels of oil equivalent (Boe). Not long after that came a comparison of how much each commodity sells for on an equivalent basis.
It must be its “predict the future price of natgas” season, along with tax season. Yesterday, we told you that BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, hauled out its crystal ball to make predictions about the “front month” contract price for NYMEX natural gas (based on the Henry Hub) for the next five years, beginning with 2024 (see 
The problem-plagued Freeport LNG export plant remains out of order. The plant had been mostly offline following an episode of cold temps in January (see 
Once a month, the analysts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months or so. We sometimes poke good-natured fun at the EIA because their predictions go up in one month, and in the next month, they go down, etc. What about the latest STEO dart board, published on Tuesday? EIA predicts the average spot price for natural gas will be $2.20/MMBtu in 2024. That’s down significantly (17%) from the $2.65 it predicted just two months ago in February’s report (see 
We are currently mired in some of the lowest prices for natural gas in the last 27 years (see 
While you wouldn’t know it from looking at the NYMEX Henry Hub futures price, the cuts in production from Marcellus/Utica producers, including Chesapeake Energy, ETQ, Antero Resources, Coterra Energy, CNX Resources, and others, IS having an effect on prices — on the spot prices of physically-traded natural gas in the M-U region. Over the past eight weeks, gas production from the Marcellus and Utica shale has fallen sharply.
Natural gas is, as we have often pointed out, one of the purest commodity markets in existence. The classic supply/demand curve is at work. If there’s more supply than demand, prices for gas move down. And conversely, if there’s more demand than supply, prices move higher. We have been stuck in a sucky price pattern this year, not helped by a very moderate winter. The phrase on the lips of every landowner and driller is, When will the price move higher? According to analysts from Morgan Stanley, not anytime soon.
For years, we have watched natural gas production in oil-focused plays like the Permian (in Texas and New Mexico) steadily rise. It was an annoyance, a curiosity, mostly an afterthought because production in the Marcellus/Utica, where we concentrate our attention, was also rising and quite dominant. But the M-U hit a plateau in December 2019 and in January 2020 began a long-term trend of staying about even (see 
Earlier this week, MDN told you that EQT, the country’s largest natural gas producer, had implemented an immediate cutback on natural gas production of 1 billion cubic feet per day (see