NatGas Prices Make Huge Drop on Prospect of Warmer Weather
Well, that didn’t take long. Yesterday we told you about the huge jump in the price of natural gas, both the futures price and the spot (physically traded) price, due to the brutal cold snap much of the country is currently experiencing (see NatGas Prices Make Huge Jump on Deep Freeze – Some M-U Prices 4X). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a weather map for next week (Jan. 22-26) that shows the entire country will most likely experience temperatures above normal. That’s all it took to whack both the futures and spot prices for natural gas.
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U.S. natural gas and power prices hit multi-year highs on Friday with the prospect of frigid temps and snow storms in various portions of the country. The extreme cold was expected to bring record gas demand and cut supplies by freezing wells. The spot price of natural gas at various trading hubs from the West Coast to Middle America to the East Coast all jumped. Of particular interest for us, spot gas prices at the Eastern Gas South hub, widely considered the “benchmark” for the Marcellus/Utica, jumped from $2.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Thursday to $10.40 on Friday — the highest price at that hub since July 2008.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published a post yesterday on the agency’s newly revamped Today in Energy website to announce it expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average under $3.00/MMBtu in 2024 and 2025. What joyous news (not). The post explains the reasoning and thinking of EIA analysts and why they believe the price of natural gas will be, sadly, lower for longer.
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. The EIA issued the January STEO yesterday. Among its latest predictions is that the growth rate for natural gas production will slow this year and next. Production will still grow, just not as fast as it did in 2023, says EIA. As for prices, EIA says the average Henry Hub price in 2024 will turn out to be around $2.70/MMBtu, which is dismal (but higher than 2023’s $2.54/MMBtu). They predict the price will rise to an average of $3/MMBtu in 2025 — still far below where it needs to be.
Yes, we’ve noticed. The Henry Hub NYMEX futures price for natural gas soared yesterday. It has been on an upward trend for the last six trading days in a row. Yesterday, the NYMEX price jumped $0.21 (6.6%) to close at $3.19 per MMBtu. Spot (physical) prices have also moved higher. What’s causing it? And will the futures price now stay above $3?
EQT CEO Toby Rice appeared on CNBC’s ‘Money Movers’ program last Friday to discuss what he expects for natural gas prices this year, what lower natural gas production means for EQT, and more. It was an interesting segment (watch it below; it is just four minutes long). Rice said, among other things, that a key issue for people to understand is that the marginal cost (i.e., the breakeven cost) in the U.S. to produce natural gas is around $3.50/MMBtu, which will hold production levels flat. Prices lower than that lead to lower production.
Zacks is one of the top investment research firms focusing on stock research, analysis, and recommendations. A new alert issued by Zacks asks this question: Is Natural Gas Poised for a Turnaround After 2023 Slump? The article recaps what happened to the price of natural gas in 2023 and what may happen in 2024. Interestingly, the author says the natural gas space “is currently quite unpredictable and spooked by the sudden changes in weather and production patterns. As such, investors are clueless about what to do.” Boy, that about sums it up, right? Even without a clue about the future, Zacks makes a couple of stock pick recommendations (of M-U companies) that it feels are safe bets…
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Last month, the report predicted the price for Henry Hub natural gas futures would average $3.40 this winter (see 
The commodity price for natural gas, as expressed by the NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract (for January), fell 10.5% in early trading yesterday before finally closing at $2.43/MMBtu, down 15 cents (6.17%) from the previous day. Why the big drop when prices are already low? Lack of demand due to warm weather. In fact, according to the National Weather Service, the entire continental United States will be warmer than average for the period of Dec. 19-25. Plump storage numbers, coupled with the weather, had natgas traders heading for the exits.
An interesting dichotomy we sometimes (but don’t often) see: The NYMEX Henry Hub futures price is down (below $3/MMBtu) and heading lower, while spot prices (physical trading) of natural gas at various trading hubs around the country are going higher, especially in the Northeast. In both cases — the futures price and the spot price — the primary reason for moving down or up is the weather, which may seem contradictory. We will explain…
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Last month, the report predicted new all-time highs for natural gas production in 2023 (see