NYMEX NatGas Price Slides 4th Day in a Row, Hits 4-Week Low
Even with much of the nation in an extreme heat event making record demands on gas-fired power plants, demand for natural gas appears to be nominal at best, and consequently, the price of natural gas, at least the Henry Hub NYMEX futures price, remains mired in the mid-$2 range. The NYMEX price was down again yesterday, closing at $2.51/MMBtu. That’s the fourth day in a row the price has decreased, hitting the lowest closing price in almost a month–since June 20th.
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One of the factors in the price of natural gas is supply. Gas is about as pure a commodity market as you will find worldwide. Higher demand with the same or less supply will drive prices higher. And the reverse is true. Higher supplies with the same or less demand lead to lower prices. Last summer, the world was still coming to terms with the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Europe and many countries worldwide pledged to stop buying Russian natural gas, putting an extreme demand on other sources for gas, including here in the U.S. The situation led to a deficit in available natgas and lower storage. This summer the situation is far different.
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Last month the EIA predicted an average price at the Henry Hub of $2.66/MMBtu for 2023, and $3.42/MMBtu for 2024 (see 
We keep a close eye out for any credible news predicting which way the price of natural gas will head in the near and longer term. Everyone has an opinion about whether natgas will go higher, go lower, or stay the same–and why. Nobody could predict what would happen last year after Vladimir Putin declared war and invaded Ukraine. Gas prices when through the roof (along with oil prices) on the theory that Europe would run out of gas and the rest of the world, including the U.S., couldn’t meet the shortfall. But then we had a mild winter–in Europe and here at home. The world exited winter with extra gas sitting in storage. More supply with the same (or less) demand equals lower prices. And that’s exactly where we have been for months–lower prices. What about this summer? Will the price increase? Decrease? Stay the same?
The Henry Hub price of natural gas (even physically traded spot prices around the country) are ever-so-gradually moving higher. Yes, we’re cheerleaders for higher natgas prices! (Not too high, but certainly higher than the current $2-$3 range.) Even though we’re pro-gas and cheerleaders for higher prices (we openly admit our bias), we’re also realists, and we try to bring you the unvarnished truth. Are prices really moving higher? Or is this just another short-term up/down cycle?
Last week the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for January through March 2023 (full copy below). There was 120 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 1Q23, a big decrease of 27 wells (-18%) compared to 1Q22. Natural gas production volume was 1,838 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 1Q23, down 14 Bcf (-0.7%) from 1Q22. It is the fifth quarterly decrease in production in a row, comparing the same quarters year-over-year. Sadly, 1Q23 production was also down from 4Q22–by 1.0%.
Although last week saw a nice increase in the futures price for natural gas (the NYMEX front month contract for June, for gas traded at the Henry Hub in Louisiana), the price decreased once again yesterday, dropping 7.7% (-$0.18) to $2.40/MMBtu, which erased more than half of the gains from last week. Why? Primarily because production remains at or near all-time highs of 100 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), and the weather is mild right now–no extreme heat to cause folks to turn on the air conditioner (causing the need for more gas-fired electricity). So here we sit, with the price of natgas still bumping around under $2.50/MMBtu. Bummer.
The American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan economic policy organization that tilts to the conservative side. ACCF advocates for better (and less) regulation, innovation in energy policy, dynamic free trade, and better infrastructure policy. Yesterday the ACCF released a new study that shows the U.S. natural gas market remains “robust” and will have no problem meeting both growing domestic consumption and growing exports–all at relatively low prices. A key point made by the study is that natural gas prices can be even lower, 10% lower, for both ratepayers and for LNG customers–if the government would ease permitting delays for building new pipelines.
Lately, we’ve been closely monitoring the price of natural gas, looking for indicators as to when the price will quit bumping around near $2/MMBtu and go higher once again. Two days ago, we told you experts are predicting we’ve now hit bottom, and the price of natgas will begin to rise (see 
Yesterday the commodity price of the Henry Hub natural gas benchmark (the NYMEX front-month futures price) popped by 5%, rising 11 cents to close at $2.38/MMBtu. (Unfortunately, the price widget along the right side of the MDN website has not been updated. It still shows Friday’s closing numbers, even though it uses yesterday’s date.) We follow the price of gas regularly because (a) it affects how much in royalties landowners receive, and (b) it affects how profitable it is to drill, a good indicator of whether drilling will pick up or slow down. As we said yesterday, experts are predicting we’ve hit bottom, and the price of natgas will now begin to rise (see 
John Love, who used to manage the United States Natural Gas Fund (the country’s biggest natural gas ETF), said in an interview with CNBC last week he believes the commodity price of natural gas has already hit bottom and will rise from here. Love says drillers are focused on the future–and the future is LNG exports. Love’s sentiments about the price bottoming out were echoed by a second expert, Teucrium Trading CEO Sal Gilbertie.