March STEO Slashes 2023 Henry Hub by Another 11% to $3.02/MMBtu
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. We poke good-natured fun at the EIA because one month, their predictions go up, the next month, down, etc. What about the latest STEO dart board, published yesterday? EIA slashed the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub another 11% from the previous monthly report (after cutting it 30% from the preceding monthly report), saying natgas will average $3.02/MMBtu in 2023, down from a forecast of $3.40 last month, and down from $4.90 the month before.
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Even though the Freeport LNG export facility is in the midst of restarting and is now using 1.5 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) of natural gas (out of a potential 2.1 Bcf/d when it’s operating at full capacity), the new demand coming from Freeport was not enough to counter the “bad news” that the weather will not be as cold as previously predicted over the next 15 days. Weather not-as-cold spells less demand for natural gas overall, and the lack of demand has translated to a crash in the NYMEX futures price based on the Henry Hub, the national benchmark for gas trading. Yesterday the “front month” NYMEX gas price contract dropped 44 cents (17%) in a single day.
According to a recent Reuters article, “A 46% drop in natural gas prices this year is rippling across the U.S. shale patch, threatening to slow drilling and chill deal-making in a move unthinkable six months ago as global demand soared.” Although the Henry Hub price for natgas rose over the past few days with the changeover to the NYMEX April contract, the price is still well below $3/Mcf. At that price, natgas drillers (in the Marcellus/Utica and elsewhere) are dialing back their drilling programs–essentially maintaining the status quo with production volumes. And at current low prices, mergers and acquisitions activity has pretty much dried up.
Here’s a fact that mainstream media largely ignores: Households in the Boston area pay about 50% more for electricity than households across the nation. On average, Massachusetts residents spend about $276 a month on electricity. That is 37% higher than the national average. An op-ed appearing in the Washington Examiner says New Englanders need to get used to these high prices. High prices for electricity are here to stay (for New England)–at least well into the 2030s. Why? Lack of pipelines, blocked by New England politicians.
We suppose you can file this story under the category of “damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.” We’re referring to hedging–the practice of locking in prices to sell gas you will produce in the future for a specific price now. Last year natural gas producers, including most (if not all) of Marcellus/Utica producers, were caught flat-footed when the price of natgas skyrocketed and their hedges were locked in for much lower prices. So as the hedges “rolled off,” many producers either elected not to hedge again, or hedged very little of their future production. And now prices have crashed again, meaning those producers are not protected and must sell most (if not all) of their production at very low market prices.
A financial analyst writing on the Seeking Alpha investors’ website wrote a detailed post outlining his thesis on why the price of natural gas is likely at the bottom now and will only go higher. He says that since natural gas prices are at or below breakeven levels for drillers, they are reducing their drilling rate. A negative shift in weather, falling rig counts, and the potential boost from Freeport exports may push natural gas back into a shortage over the coming months.
Please sit down, buckle up, and keep your hands inside the ride at all times. No, these are not instructions before boarding a roller coaster at your favorite theme park. These are instructions for those who buy and sell natural gas in 2023. While the price of natgas has been bumping along at the mid-$2 range since late December, don’t be lulled into the siren song of “lower for longer.” According to the Wall Street Journal, the “buffers that keep America’s natural-gas price fluctuations at bay are eroding,” and you can expect wild gyrations in price to happen in 2023.
The Pennsylvania House Republican Policy Committee held a hearing yesterday in Harrisburg on the increasing energy costs that affect large and small businesses as well as homeowners. Several energy advocates, including Marcellus Shale Coalition President Dave Callahan, shared their thoughts and insights. High on the list of issues creating higher energy prices in the Keystone State are (1) the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI, an obscene carbon tax), and (2) the ongoing issue of red tape from government bureaucracies like the Dept. of Environmental Protection.
Here in the northeastern part of the country, we are supposed to be getting clobbered by two days of super-cold, Siberian air–beginning today. The “otherworldly” temps are forecast to be in the minus 45 degrees Fahrenheit region in some places. Wind chill temps even lower. The spot (physically delivered, next day) price for natural gas in some locations in New England traded as high as $225 per MMBtu during the day yesterday. Even so, the national benchmark Henry Hub price (in southern Louisiana) sank another 1.2 cents to settle at $2.46/MMBtu.
We keep commenting on the futures price of natural gas, the NYMEX Henry Hub price, because it keeps heading lower. Yesterday the NYMEX price closed down another 22 cents to $2.47/MMBtu, the lowest settlement price since April 6, 2021 (22 months). Here’s another somber statistic: The NYMEX price fell the most during a single month (in January), then it has fallen in 22 YEARS. The NYMEX price fell a whopping 40% in January.
As we reported yesterday, the price of natural gas continues to bump along in the mid-$2/MMBtu range (see 
This is getting painful. Are we beginning to settle into “lower for longer” once again, with natural gas prices trading in the $2-$3 range? Gosh, we sure hope not. Yesterday was the first full day of the March 2023 NYMEX futures contract for natural gas as the “front month.” The February contract “rolled off” (i.e. ended) last Friday, and yesterday the March contract became the new contract that functions as the default price for the NYMEX. And it settled at $2.677 per million BTUs (MMBtu). Once again, warm weather is the main factor cited for the low price. Here’s a question: How did we go from almost $10/MMBtu gas and one of the tightest, most volatile markets in over a decade, to sub-$3/MMBtu gas and one of the most bearish scenarios seen in a long time–all in the span of just six months? We have some answers below.
It’s brutal out there–with respect to the price of the NYMEX Henry Hub futures price. Yesterday the HH dropped below, and stayed below, $3/MMBtu. The price “settled” at $2.94, down 12 cents (4%) for the day. That is the lowest settlement price for the HH in 20 months–since May 2021. Not even the good news that Freeport LNG received permission from FERC to begin some restart operations (see our companion story today) was enough to lift the price. So why did the price crash further yesterday?
Zooming out for a broader view of issues around the world that affect the natural gas market here in the U.S. is helpful from time to time. What’s happening in Europe right now, and how will that affect our gas market in 2023? How about China? Is supply/demand in balance, and how does that affect the Henry Hub price? And what about LNG? Rigzone looks at six things the natural gas market can expect in 2023. Their insights give us an interesting view of what the year may hold for natgas.