Henry Hub Price is Crashing – When Will it Go Higher Again?
Yesterday the NYMEX Henry Hub price for natural gas dropped 27.5 cents from the previous day to close at $3.31/MMBtu. It is the lowest settlement price in 19 months, since June 22, 2021. The reason for the crash in price is low demand. Digging further, there is low demand because (1) the weather is warm this winter (so far, anyway), and (2) some 2 Bcf/d of demand is still gone because the Freeport LNG export facility remains offline. The question is, when will demand, and the price, go higher again? And how much higher will it go this year and next? The U.S. Energy Information Administration weighs in on those questions.
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The CEO of the largest natural gas driller/producer in the U.S., EQT’s Toby Rice, is currently attending the Atlantic Conference in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates. He spoke with Bloomberg reporters about what he sees ahead for U.S. natural gas production coming this year and, more broadly, about the problems he sees in general. Rice said, “The gas markets in the US are broken.” Why? Lack of pipeline infrastructure and the inability to build new ones.
U.S. natural gas demand is on track to hit record lows in January if unseasonably warm weather sticks around, according to Rystad Energy. It’s just too darned warm! The warm weather reduces demand for natgas used in heating. Also, as you will read today, a Freeport LNG restart that uses 2 Bcf/d is also likely delayed further–maybe until the end of February. Given the warm weather and Freeport, demand is down, and because of lower demand, prices are crumbling.
Once a month, the analysts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months or so. We sometimes poke some good-natured fun at the EIA because one month, their predictions go up, the next month, down, etc. What about the latest STEO dart board, published yesterday? EIA predicts average natural gas production will be 100.34 Bcf/d in 2023 and will go even higher to 102.29 Bcf/d in 2024. The current all-time high was 98.02 Bcf/d, and that was last year. As for the commodity price of gas, EIA says the Henry Hub spot price will average $4.90/MMBtu in 2023, down from $6.42/MMBtu in 2022.
In 2022, the spot price for natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in southern Louisiana averaged $6.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the highest annual average, in both real and nominal terms, since 2008. That’s the highest average in 14 years. Most casual observers would attribute the high price to Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and Europe’s sudden demand for non-Russian natgas–in particular, U.S. LNG. While there is no doubt Putin’s war had an influence, the truth is natgas prices were already on the rise before the war. It was a wild ride in 2022. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recaps the year…
The “front month” (Feb. 2023) NYMEX Henry Hub price for natural gas took another nosedive yesterday, hitting its lowest price ($3.72/MMBtu) since Jan. 4, 2022. Why the drop? Weather, or course. But also expectations. Natural gas commodities trading is a strange art. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that withdrawal from underground gas inventories was 221 billion cubic feet (Bcf) over the past week. The five-year average for the same period is 98 Bcf. Holy smokes! That’s a HUGE drawdown. And yet the market went the other way and crashed the price–because traders expected the drawdown to be even bigger–around 240 Bcf.
S&P Global Commodity Insights published an analysis article speculating on the overall level of natural gas production we can expect to see in the U.S. in 2023. According to S&P’s analysts, weaker prices for the NYMEX Henry Hub futures price expected this year, along with recent weakness in the internal rate of return (IRR) for companies, are combining to lower the amount of growth in natgas production we might otherwise have experienced. S&P isn’t saying we’ll go backward–with less production. It’s saying production won’t grow as much as it could have if not for these negative factors.
The NYMEX Henry Hub price for natural gas is once again in freefall. Over the four previous trading sessions, the price has crashed $1.29/MMBtu (down 25%) to settle yesterday at $3.99. We haven’t seen prices this low since February 2022. Weather is the culprit. Baby, it’s warm outside! So, where is the price heading in 2023? Let’s try to answer that question.
While the commodity price of natural gas has always drifted up and down, we can’t remember a time (in our coverage of the industry) when it has been so volatile–with wide swings in both directions–as it has been in 2022. Yesterday was another “bottom is dropping out” down day when the NYMEX futures price at the Henry Hub fell by $0.52. The NYMEX price has fallen three days in a row and is down a total of $1.64 (or 23.6%) over those three days.
S&P Global Commodity Insights issued its latest 2023 Energy Outlook yesterday. The analysis is quite interesting, with ten “key themes” that will most affect world energy (and oil/natgas prices) next year. The number one key theme may surprise you: “China’s COVID policy is the most important fundamental factor for energy markets.” If not for China shutting down entire regions in an effort to stamp out COVID spread, S&P says the price for commodities like oil and natural gas would have continued to be high this year. If China’s demand comes roaring back in 2023, watch out! Prices will be “well supported,” according to S&P. More like “through the roof.” If COVID continues and China’s demand stays low, look for prices to remain lower too.
Once a month, the analysts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months or so. We sometimes poke some good-natured fun at the EIA because one month their predictions go up, the next month down, etc. What about the latest STEO, published on Tuesday? EIA predicts average natural gas production will be just above 100 Bcf/d in 2023 (after predicting last month it would average below 100 Bcf/d). As for the commodity price of gas, EIA says the Henry Hub spot price will average right around $6/MMBtu in 1Q23.
The front-month NYMEX futures contract (based on the price of gas trading at the Henry Hub) dropped like a rock yesterday–down 70 cents (-12.6%) to $5.58/MMBtu. The price has dropped for the past four trading days in a row. Some say it’s free fallin’. In total, the price has lost $1.66 (-22.9%) over the last four sessions. NYMEX trading during the day yesterday hit its lowest point since March of this year. Why? Mainly a warm short-term weather forecast, coupled with the continuing outage at the Freeport LNG export facility.
An interesting episode on Friday illustrates the power of social media and fake news. The NYMEX natural gas futures price for the “front month” December contract plunged as much as 7.4% on Friday morning after someone identifying themselves as a commodities trader posted on Twitter that “cracked pipes” were discovered at the Freeport LNG terminal, potentially delaying the company’s plans to restart exports. Interest in the tweet took off after being shared by another Twitter user that is widely followed by gas traders and analysts.
What the heck is going on with natural gas prices? Last Friday, the NYMEX futures price (based on the Henry Hub spot price) lost another $0.40 to close at $4.96/MMBtu. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Average dropped $0.54 to $4.99/MMBtu. The NYMEX lost $1.49 last week, representing a 23% drop in price–in one week! Last week marked the longest losing streak for natural gas prices (9 straight weeks) since the week ending Feb. 8, 1991, when the market fell for 11 straight weeks. Yuck.