Prediction: NatGas Prices to Keep Rising into 2025 Due to Cold Wx
According to a Reuters analyst, natural gas prices in Asia, Europe, and North America have climbed by 30% to 50% in 2024 and are likely to keep rising over the coming months in early 2025 as forecasts for cold weather trigger higher heating demand in key consumer hubs. Although Europe entered the winter with “full” gas stocks, Europe and Asia are already looking to restock by buying more natgas (LNG), spurring demand for LNG. That should ensure gas traders will remain bullish (pushing prices higher) until the upcoming winter is over. Gas prices “may have little scope to retreat until well into 2025.” We like the sound of that! Read More “Prediction: NatGas Prices to Keep Rising into 2025 Due to Cold Wx”
The analysts at the federal U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) are cautioning (we’d call it warning) that the global natural gas market may experience a tighter supply-demand balance this winter than in the prior two winters. Why? Several reasons, chief among is the coming colder winter. El Niño changes to La Niña this season. La Niña generally brings colder, drier weather to the Northern Hemisphere. But weather isn’t the only factor for EIA. So, too, is the lack of growth this winter in new LNG exports from the U.S. 
Dr. Judith Curry is an American climatologist and the former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Her research interests include hurricanes, remote sensing, atmospheric modeling, polar climates, air-sea interactions, climate models, and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles for atmospheric research. She was a member of the National Research Council’s Climate Research Committee, published over a hundred scientific papers, and co-edited several major works. She’s worked with NOAA and NASA. She has more awards than you can count. Yet because she dares to openly ask questions and point out political bias in the global warming community, she has been ostracized. She is one of the smartest people alive regarding climate change. 
We began our headline with the word “Surprise!” because, well, nobody is surprised that Freeport LNG is, once again, down. That has been the theme since it began to operate. We’ve tracked the up down up down up down situation at Freeport LNG since it came online in 2019. Freeport was mostly offline this year following an episode of cold temps in January (see 
Last Friday, Morningstar DBRS published a commentary titled, “Record-High Temperatures Boost Power Demand but Ample Gas Inventories Prevent a Bigger Jump in Prices” (full copy below). Since early March, U.S. and European natural gas prices have climbed steadily in the anticipation — and eventual onset — of much warmer than normal early summer temperatures even as producers curbed supply to contend with the glut built up during the past mild winter. Although U.S. and European gas storage inventories have been drawn down from early 2024, they remain high for this time of year. Large inventories are preventing prices from moving higher, says Morningstar analysts. It’s classic economics — more supply with the same demand equals lower prices.
U.S. natural gas and power prices hit multi-year highs in mid-January with the prospect of frigid temps and snow storms in various portions of the country (see 
U.S. natural gas and power prices hit multi-year highs on Friday with the prospect of frigid temps and snow storms in various portions of the country. The extreme cold was expected to bring record gas demand and cut supplies by freezing wells. The spot price of natural gas at various trading hubs from the West Coast to Middle America to the East Coast all jumped. Of particular interest for us, spot gas prices at the Eastern Gas South hub, widely considered the “benchmark” for the Marcellus/Utica, jumped from $2.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Thursday to $10.40 on Friday — the highest price at that hub since July 2008.
The commodity price for natural gas, as expressed by the NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract (for January), fell 10.5% in early trading yesterday before finally closing at $2.43/MMBtu, down 15 cents (6.17%) from the previous day. Why the big drop when prices are already low? Lack of demand due to warm weather. In fact, according to the National Weather Service, the entire continental United States will be warmer than average for the period of Dec. 19-25. Plump storage numbers, coupled with the weather, had natgas traders heading for the exits.
According to analysts writing for S&P Global Commodity Insights, the long-range forecast from the U.S. National Weather Service calls for milder temperatures in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region this winter. Warm temps equal less natural gas usage. Williams’ Transco Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) project will partially come online in October, flowing an initial 450 MMcf/d (out of 829 MMcf/d) of Marcellus gas to PA, NJ, and Maryland. More supply with less demand is a classic economic prescription for lower prices in New York, New Jersey, and the Mid-Atlantic region. So says the S&P analysts.
Less than a year ago, the Northeast experienced a major winter storm at Christmastime (Winter Storm Elliott). Do you remember it? On Dec. 23, temps in places like the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania hit 60 degrees! Within 12 hours, the bottom dropped out, with temps plunging into the single digits—a more than 50-degree change. Dec. 24’s high temp in the Lehigh Valley (Allentown) was 13 degrees. The massive temperature change caused problems with power generation by natural gas plants, some of which went offline due to freeze-ups in the pipelines that feed them. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) issued a final report yesterday on Winter Storm Elliott, complete with recommendations for sweeping new regulations to prevent future blackouts from storms like Elliott.
Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the “big bend” region of Florida on the morning of Aug. 30 as a Category 3 storm, then lost speed as it crossed the state, downgrading to a Category 1 as it pushed into Georgia, knocking out power to hundreds of thousands of customers and reducing power and natural gas demand along with power prices. One of the consequences of the storm was/is an impact on the shore of Georgia, where the Elba Island LNG export facility is located. While we don’t have a post-storm update (yet), we can tell you that the Marcellus/Utica flowing to Elba Island was reduced by roughly 30% going into the storm.
Long-range forecasts for hot weather and a lighter-than-predicted storage report for natural gas led to a 6% spike up in the price of the NYMEX Henry Hub yesterday, closing at $2.76/MMBtu. The National Weather Service released modeling yesterday that shows hot temps will get hotter for the end of July and the beginning of August. Also, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly storage report yesterday, showing 41 Bcf was injected into storage for the previous week–lower than a predicted mid- to upper-40s Bcf. That was enough for traders to bid up the NYMEX price.
The Henry Hub price of natural gas (even physically traded spot prices around the country) are ever-so-gradually moving higher. Yes, we’re cheerleaders for higher natgas prices! (Not too high, but certainly higher than the current $2-$3 range.) Even though we’re pro-gas and cheerleaders for higher prices (we openly admit our bias), we’re also realists, and we try to bring you the unvarnished truth. Are prices really moving higher? Or is this just another short-term up/down cycle?
The NYMEX Henry Hub price for natural gas is once again in freefall. Over the four previous trading sessions, the price has crashed $1.29/MMBtu (down 25%) to settle yesterday at $3.99. We haven’t seen prices this low since February 2022. Weather is the culprit. Baby, it’s warm outside! So, where is the price heading in 2023? Let’s try to answer that question.