Weather

Wall Street’s hedge funds have placed their biggest bet against natural gas prices in more than six years. They’re wagering that a “Super El Niño” will give the U.S. a warm, wimpy winter and leave way too much gas sitting in storage. They may be right. But the last time hedge funds loaded up on the short side of gas heading into winter (this past January!), Mother Nature handed them their heads. Read More “Wall Street Bets Against Winter (and NatGas) – Remember Jan. 2026?”

The feds have spoken: this winter in the Northeast will most likely be warmer than normal, and maybe a little soggier, too. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its official winter outlook last Thursday (Oct. 15), and a “super” El Niño is calling the shots. For those who make a living from Marcellus/Utica gas, a warm winter means less gas burned to heat homes, and that means softer prices. The market noticed. November futures slid 12 cents on Friday. But here’s the twist. In pipeline-starved New England, traders are still betting on $20-plus gas in January. A mild winter can’t fix what bad policy broke. Read More “NOAA Winter Outlook: Warm, Wet Northeast Means Softer Gas Prices”

A punishing heat dome parked over the southern two-thirds of the country gave natural gas prices a nice bump on Tuesday — the September Nymex contract jumped 8.6 cents to settle at $2.776 per MMBtu, up 3.2%. But if you own Marcellus or Utica royalties, the number that actually lands in your mailbox is a lot smaller than that. Here’s the full picture, national and regional. Read More “Where Natgas Prices Stand: Nymex $2.78, Appalachia $1.77”

Natural gas futures suffered a historic 26% collapse—the steepest one-day percentage drop since 1995 (over 30 years!)—as the most-active “front month” contract plunged over a dollar to close at $3.237/MMBtu. This dramatic retreat was fueled by forecasts of “well above normal” temperatures across the Eastern U.S. and a recovery in production following recent freeze-offs, both of which point toward a looming inventory buildup. Although analysts at NatGasWeather.com suggest the market may have overshot the actual data, the combination of a thawing climate and stabilizing supply clearly spooked investors enough to trigger this record-breaking slide. Read More “NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Price Suffers “Historic” Collapse of 26%”

Yesterday, the natural gas price rocketship continued its flight into the stratosphere. U.S. natural gas futures soared Monday, with the front-month contract surging to a three-year high, closing at $6.80/MMBtu, as winter storm Fern swept across the country, driving up heating demand and threatening supply. Spot prices are literally through the roof, spiking to levels we’ve not seen in years. The deep freeze continues through the eastern half of the country at least until Feb. 9, according to NOAA’s temperature outlook. However, there are signs that a “sharp collapse” may soon unfold. Read More “Through the Roof: Winter Storm, Bitter Cold Drive NYMEX to $6.80”

For the second day in a row, the “front month” NYMEX natural gas futures contract was firmly attached to a rocketship. Yesterday, the NYMEX contract for February delivery gained 96.80 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtus), or 24.78%, to close at $4.8750. That’s up $1.772 (or 57%) over the last two trading sessions. It is the largest two-day dollar gain since Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022 (four years!). Early trading this morning was hovering between $5.35 and $5.50. It’s all to do with the current Arctic freeze in the eastern half of the country and a massive snowstorm due this weekend. But, bear this in mind: What goes up must come down. Read More “NYMEX NatGas Futures Rocketship: Up 57% in 2 Days, Break $5 Today?”

Old Man Winter has proven once again that he is the one in charge of natural gas prices. A cold blast now entering the Midwest and Northeast, which is moving in until early February (at least), is the reason for a dramatic jump in the NYMEX front-month futures contract price, rising 80.4 cents per MMBtu (26%) in one day, yesterday, to a closing price of $3.9070 MMBtu. It is the largest one-day percentage gain in four years, since January 2022. The price continued climbing this morning (Wednesday) and looks like it might flirt with $5.00! Read More “NYMEX Jumps 26% to $3.91 on Arctic Cold, Largest 1-Day Gain in 4 Yrs”

You knew it had to happen. After the meteoric rise of the NYMEX “front month” futures contract from bumping along under $3 just a couple of months ago to hitting a 52-week high of $5.289 on Friday, Dec. 5, 2025, the drop has been almost as rapid. We first crashed back into the $4 range, and as of yesterday, the price sank below $4, closing at $3.8860. The stated reason is a warm weather forecast for the rest of this month. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (what an oxymoron that is!) shows that the vast majority of the country will experience much warmer-than-average temperatures through Dec. 30. Read More “Warmer Weather Forecast Sends NYMEX NatGas Futures Below $4 Again”

Yesterday, the NYMEX “front-month” futures price for natural gas closed up 15 cents at $4.995 (call it $5), which is the highest closing price for NYMEX in nearly three years (since Dec. 27, 2022). Intraday trading of the front-month contract floated above $5 at points. Weather forecasts of impending frigid weather were the main reason for the increase. Futures prices are now up more than 60% compared with a year ago. “Forecasts for the coldest December since 2010 may tip storage into a deficit by Christmas,” trading firm EBW Analytics wrote in a note to clients. Fewer molecules with more demand equals higher prices. As for the spot price at trading hubs in the Marcellus/Utica region, averaging all of them together, the price closed yesterday at $4.74, nearly at parity with the Henry Hub spot price of $4.87. That’s unheard of! Read More “NYMEX Gas Futures Hit $4.995 on Cold Forecast; M-U Spot Avg $4.74”

On Monday, the NYMEX “front month” futures price for natural gas dived, down 20.5 cents (4.5%) in a single day (see 2 NOAA Graphics Drove NYMEX NatGas Price Down 20.5 Cents Yesterday). The reason? A forecast released by NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) that shows a warm trend in the Eastern U.S. through the end of this month. And just like that, the NYMEX price reversed yesterday, gaining 17.9 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtus), or 4.10% to $4.55, making up most of Monday’s loss. Traders call it a “hammer reversal.” Why the drastic change? Once again, weather. Read More “Trader Says NYMEX NatGas Price “Hammer Reversal” Targets $4.88″

The NYMEX “front month” futures price for natural gas took a dive yesterday, down 20.5 cents (4.5%) in a single day. The price remains firmly in the $4 range, closing at $4.361 per million British thermal units (MMBtus). We thought it would be a good time to check in on the price—what the futures price has been doing, and what the spot/physically traded price in the Marcellus/Utica region has been doing. We can sum up why the price tanked yesterday in a single word: weather. Expanding on that just a bit, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) released its 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook graphics yesterday, showing most of the country (in particular the Northeast) will experience warmer than average temperatures for 6-10 days, with the Northeast experiencing warm temperatures all the way through the end of this month and into December. Read More “2 NOAA Graphics Drove NYMEX NatGas Price Down 20.5 Cents Yesterday”