Mountain Valley Pipe Suspends Construction, Prepares for Florence

Not all that long ago (early August) the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission shut down all work on the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which runs from Wetzel County, WV to the Transco Pipeline in Pittsylvania County, VA (see FERC Shuts Down ALL Work on Mountain Valley Pipeline in WV, VA). Then FERC changed its mind, and told MVP it could restart work, which happened two weeks ago (see FERC Lifts Mountain Valley Pipe Stop-Work Order, Rehiring). Now work has stopped again–at least in Virginia–but not because of FERC or governmental intervention. MVP has voluntarily stopped building in Virginia and instead is working to prepare MVP construction sites for impacts from Hurricane Florence. MVP issued the following statement on Tuesday: “We are taking all possible precautions in Virginia to ensure the safety of our crews and communities, as well as to protect and maintain erosion and sediment controls along MVP’s right-of-way.” A wise precaution in the face of what is sure to be a rough few days this weekend. Here’s the specific actions MVP (being built by EQT Midstream) is taking to prepare for the storm…
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Hurricane Florence May Drench M-U, Affect Production & Pipelines

Hurricane Florence, current location

Hurricane Florence is on everyone’s lips–as well it should be. We have close friends who live near Florence, SC–about 70 miles inland from Myrtle Beach. We toured the devastation of Hurricane Hugo on Myrtle back in 1989. It was massively destructive. Hurricane Florence is also a Category 4, as was Hugo, and may even turn into a Cat 5. It looks like Florence will come ashore much closer to Myrtle Beach than Hugo did, which came ashore around Charleston. MDN friend and contributor Chris Acker owns a place in Savannah, GA–also within the danger zone. Say a prayer for the folks along the coast of NC, SC, GA and VA. While we’re deeply concerned with the devastation that’s sure to come along the coast (and our friends in SC and GA), our minds go to the question, “Where does this storm go next, after it makes landfall?” The folks at Platts Analytics say the path may take it into the Marcellus/Utica region. Comparing this storm and its track to Hurricane Matthew (from 2016), Matthew caused a 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) decrease in production from the Marcellus region for three weeks while the industry recovered from the effects of that storm. And Matthew was only a Cat 1! If the leftovers of Florence visit our region, production and pipeline construction will likely take a hit. Energy Transfer’s repair of the Revolution Pipeline that exploded on Monday due to a landslide caused by heavy rains may take longer than expected. And who knows about Williams’ forthcoming startup of Atlantic Sunrise, due to go online Sept. 17. This hurricane is dicey folks. Buckle up for a bumpy ride, and pray that the remnants of Florence leave us alone…
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FERC Report Says Warm Winter Ahead, Gas Prod to Grow 5 Bcf/d

Last week the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) Office of Enforcement (OE) released their 2017-18 Winter Energy Market Assessment, an annual look ahead to the coming winter. OE shares their thoughts and expectations about market preparedness, including an assessment of risks. What does the report show? OE says production is going up (increasing another 5 billion cubic feet per day by next April), natural gas in storage is “robust” (meaning high), and the upcoming winter weather looks to be warmer than normal in most of the country, including the northeast. Translation: Don’t expect the price of natural gas to spike this winter. Prices will remain relatively low. Here’s the full OE report (interesting reading, pretty charts)…
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Witch Hunt: Leading Climate Scientist Resigns from Georgia Tech

Regardless of what you think about so-called man-made global warming, you would think that scientists should be allowed to express their views on the topic without being hunted down and burned at the stake like a witch, reputationally speaking. Yet if a climate scientist dares to express misgivings about the actual data behind global warming, that is exactly what happens. Dr. Judith Curry, a highly respected climate scientist, recently resigned her tenured position at Georgia Tech–because of climate witch hunters. Dr. Curry started out as a man-made global warming true believer, but was shocked at the “Climategate” emails that show researchers with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia were intentionally making up the numbers in an effort to prove their theories. False data. Lies. Distortions. Dr. Curry investigated and questioned climate orthodoxy, and for that, she has been hounded out of Georgia Tech. What is wrong with this picture? When did science become politics? When did simply asking tough questions become the basis for destroying someone’s reputation?…
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NGSA: Colder Winter + Lower Production = Higher NatGas Prices

ngsaLast winter was pretty unusual by everyone’s standards. It was much warmer and less snowy than normal in the northeast, and natural gas production/levels remained high over the course of the winter. It meant that the price of natural gas stayed in the basement during the time of year when it normally at least makes it to the first floor. What about this year? MDN recently reported that it’s going to be colder and snowier than average in the northeast this year (see AccuWeather Winter Forecast: “Frequent Snow” Will Blast Northeast). The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) issued its 16th annual Winter Outlook assessment of the wholesale natural gas market yesterday (full copy below). What do they say? NGSA affirms the AccuWeather forecast saying they expect temps to be 12% colder this winter–increasing demand for natural gas and thus putting “upward pressure” on the price of natural gas…
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AccuWeather Winter Forecast: “Frequent Snow” Will Blast Northeast

accuweatherWeather is a major driver in the natural gas markets and primary cause for ups and downs in the price of natural gas. The hotter or colder it is, the more natgas is used for cooling (in the summer) or heating (in the winter). Some of the best weather forecasters in the business can be found making predictions for the energy markets–specifically in the natgas market. One of the country’s top weather outfits is AccuWeather. The forecasters at AccuWeather have just released their long-range forecast for the winter months in the U.S. Their forecast shows much colder and snowier conditions in the northeast than we experienced last year. If their prediction comes true, it means gas prices in our region may move higher (watch out pipeline deficient New England, your gas AND electric rates will skyrocket again), and it means drillers will face challenges with drilling through the winter months. Here’s what AccuWeather says (and shows, via maps) about the coming 3-4 months across the country…
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Weather Channel Founder Says “Climate Change” Theory has Failed

John ColemanJohn Coleman is the founder of the Weather Channel. He’s been a meteorologist for over 60 years. He was the original forecaster for the first seven years of ABC’s Good Morning America. The man has been around. He knows weather, and he knows science. Penning a column in today’s USA Today, for Earth Day, Coleman skewers the global warming “climate change” hysteria as a hoax that does nothing more than give more power to the United Nations. Happy Earth Day! Here’s what Coleman says…
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Weather/Natgas Forecast for NE Revised: Cool All Summer (Yuck)

Weather1Is there a weather forecast worth the pixels used to broadcast it? We doubt it. We laugh when we hear about “climate change” coming in the next X years, which really means global warming, and how the “average temperature” of old Mother Earth is about to skyrocket–any year now. Of course hucksters like Al Gore have been saying that for the past 25 years. And still the average temp on earth goes up, then it goes down, then it goes up. OMG–climate changes! Can you believe that?!! What dopes. Anyway, last month we brought you the long range weather forecast for the entire country, month by month, from Weather Services International (WSI)–a respected weather prognosticating company used by many in the natural gas industry (see Marcellus/Utica 3-Month Temp Forecast: Cold, Warm, Warm). New month, new forecast. And guess what? The forecast has changed. Now WSI says weather in the northeast will remain cooler than “normal” all summer long–at least through July. Yipee. Meanwhile Al Gore and those incredibly brainy “scientists” he listens to are making predictions about the weather decades down the road–when we can’t get it right from month to month–even day to day…
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Marcellus/Utica 3-Month Temp Forecast: Cold, Warm, Warm

Every now and again we check in on the weather forecast–the long range forecast–from Weather Services International. Why? Because the weather has a great deal to do with the price of natural gas, and the price of natural gas has a great deal to do with whether or not drillers are willing to drill for it. Forthwith, here is the temperature forecast for the next three months across the U.S., by region (the Marcellus/Utica is, of course, in the Northeast)…
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Marcellus/Utica 3-Month Weather Forecast: Cool, Warm, Warm

Because the weather has a great deal to do with the price of natural gas, and the price of natural gas has a great deal to do with whether or not drillers are willing to drill for it, MDN brought you the Weather Services International long range forecast one month ago (see Global Warming, Global Cooling & Natgas Prices). WSI is back with an updated long range (next three months) forecast. What does it show?…
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Global Warming, Global Cooling & Natgas Prices

MDN is not a fan of the “man causes global warming by burning fossil fuel” theories that are all the rage these days. The problem, you see, is lack of, well, global warming! No evidence. Take, for example, last winter. Please don’t insult our intelligence by telling us that brutally cold temperatures (the coldest in a generation) are also the result of so-called “global warming.” You don’t get to say that warming also causes cooling–that’s not part of the theory, a theory that says too much carbon in the atmosphere causes temperatures to RISE, not FALL. You don’t get to make up the science as you go to fit your cockeyed beliefs. A flawed theory is a flawed theory. So when we spotted the following summer forecast from Weather Services International, along with their map (below), you’ll understand why we continue to be “warming deniers” and “climate skeptics.” And what does this have to do with Marcellus drilling? A lot, as it turns out…
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Marcellus Well Freeze-Offs Lower January Natgas Production

Wells freezing from the brutally cold winter in the northeast has led to a slight decrease in the amount of gas production coming from the Marcellus, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration and analysis by Bentek Energy (a division of Platts). Official numbers for January production from the EIA won’t be out until the end of March, but preliminary numbers indicate the cold weather is having an impact on supplies…
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