NatGas Spot Price at HH, M-U Trading Hubs Hits Fresh 1-Yr Highs
The spot price (cash paid for immediate delivery) of natural gas at trading hubs across the country, including in the Marcellus/Utica, continues to hit new highs not seen in over a year. Even though the longer-range NYMEX futures price isn’t moving all that much. Pay no attention to the futures price! Look at the spot price. In the Henry Hub (Louisiana), the benchmark for all natgas prices, the spot price yesterday closed at $3.83/MMBtu, up $0.48 in one day. Dominion South closed at roughly $3.30/MMBtu, up $0.36 from the day before. And Tennessee Gas Zone 4 Marcellus closed at roughly $3.20/MMBtu, up $0.39 from the day before.
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Analysts at S&P Global Platts say that with the current cold snap underway in the northeast, already decreasing natural gas production from the Marcellus/Utica may accelerate with wellhead freeze-offs. Sometimes in colder temps (hey, it was 2 degrees at MDN HQ this morning) water and other liquids in the gas can freeze and block the flow of gas, called a wellhead freeze-off.
Yesterday MDN told you of a new threat to LNG shipments from Louisiana with the grounding of a semi-submersible rig, blocking traffic coming from Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG export terminal (see 
Gasmageddon, as this current low natural gas price climate is being called, is getting worse. Based on the latest weather models (the natgas market has some of the best long-range weather forecasting in the world), gas prices have crashed and are burning (pun intended). Yesterday the NYMEX futures price closed at $1.77–in the dead of winter! Spot prices for gas bought and sold in the northeast lead the loss in value. A Raymond James survey of energy executives found most execs believe we will exit 2020 with the price of gas in the $1.50-$2.00 range, and that gas will not go above an average of $2.50 this year. Although we now use 50% more natgas than just 10 years ago, prices remain stubbornly low. Why?
The folks who keep track of these things expect today’s record-cold polar vortex in the Midwest and northeast (coldest temps in more than a generation, hey, what was that about global warming?) will create the highest demand/usage of natural gas for a single day–ever. Prognosticators also predict a “freeze-off” in the Marcellus/Utica, causing a temporary 1 Bcf/d decrease in production.
Not all that long ago (early August) the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission shut down all work on the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), which runs from Wetzel County, WV to the Transco Pipeline in Pittsylvania County, VA (see 
Last week the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) Office of Enforcement (OE) released their 2017-18 Winter Energy Market Assessment, an annual look ahead to the coming winter. OE shares their thoughts and expectations about market preparedness, including an assessment of risks. What does the report show? OE says production is going up (increasing another 5 billion cubic feet per day by next April), natural gas in storage is “robust” (meaning high), and the upcoming winter weather looks to be warmer than normal in most of the country, including the northeast. Translation: Don’t expect the price of natural gas to spike this winter. Prices will remain relatively low. Here’s the full OE report (interesting reading, pretty charts)…
Regardless of what you think about so-called man-made global warming, you would think that scientists should be allowed to express their views on the topic without being hunted down and burned at the stake like a witch, reputationally speaking. Yet if a climate scientist dares to express misgivings about the actual data behind global warming, that is exactly what happens. Dr. Judith Curry, a highly respected climate scientist, recently resigned her tenured position at Georgia Tech–because of climate witch hunters. Dr. Curry started out as a man-made global warming true believer, but was shocked at the “Climategate” emails that show researchers with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia were intentionally making up the numbers in an effort to prove their theories. False data. Lies. Distortions. Dr. Curry investigated and questioned climate orthodoxy, and for that, she has been hounded out of Georgia Tech. What is wrong with this picture? When did science become politics? When did simply asking tough questions become the basis for destroying someone’s reputation?…
Last winter was pretty unusual by everyone’s standards. It was much warmer and less snowy than normal in the northeast, and natural gas production/levels remained high over the course of the winter. It meant that the price of natural gas stayed in the basement during the time of year when it normally at least makes it to the first floor. What about this year? MDN recently reported that it’s going to be colder and snowier than average in the northeast this year (see 
Weather is a major driver in the natural gas markets and primary cause for ups and downs in the price of natural gas. The hotter or colder it is, the more natgas is used for cooling (in the summer) or heating (in the winter). Some of the best weather forecasters in the business can be found making predictions for the energy markets–specifically in the natgas market. One of the country’s top weather outfits is AccuWeather. The forecasters at AccuWeather have just released their long-range forecast for the winter months in the U.S. Their forecast shows much colder and snowier conditions in the northeast than we experienced last year. If their prediction comes true, it means gas prices in our region may move higher (watch out pipeline deficient New England, your gas AND electric rates will skyrocket again), and it means drillers will face challenges with drilling through the winter months. Here’s what AccuWeather says (and shows, via maps) about the coming 3-4 months across the country…
John Coleman is the founder of the Weather Channel. He’s been a meteorologist for over 60 years. He was the original forecaster for the first seven years of ABC’s Good Morning America. The man has been around. He knows weather, and he knows science. Penning a column in today’s USA Today, for Earth Day, Coleman skewers the global warming “climate change” hysteria as a hoax that does nothing more than give more power to the United Nations. Happy Earth Day! Here’s what Coleman says…
Is there a weather forecast worth the pixels used to broadcast it? We doubt it. We laugh when we hear about “climate change” coming in the next X years, which really means global warming, and how the “average temperature” of old Mother Earth is about to skyrocket–any year now. Of course hucksters like Al Gore have been saying that for the past 25 years. And still the average temp on earth goes up, then it goes down, then it goes up. OMG–climate changes! Can you believe that?!! What dopes. Anyway, last month we brought you the long range weather forecast for the entire country, month by month, from Weather Services International (WSI)–a respected weather prognosticating company used by many in the natural gas industry (see