Cold Weather to the Rescue! M-U Gas Prices Spike, Highest in Months
Have you noticed the nice rise in the price of gas? Yesterday, the NYMEX Henry Hub price rose $0.22 to close at $3.58/MMBtu (up 6.24% in a single day). Cool! Better yet, the spot price of natural gas in the Marcellus/Utica region is on the march, too. According to Argus Media, spot natural gas prices across the northeastern U.S. surged to the highest levels in months. Why? Weather. Specifically, cold weather. Example: The Columbia Gas Appalachia index, a “key indicator” for the price of gas from the Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania and surrounding states, more than doubled to $2.37/mmBtu on Monday, the highest since March 2nd. How high will it go?
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The Baker Hughes rig count has crashed this year compared to last year’s numbers. A few months ago, we began to chronicle the weekly rig count to keep track of this alarming situation (which we post about every Monday). U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts have taken notice of the crashing rig count and asked themselves: Why? It may seem obvious, but EIA points out in a new post on its Today in Energy website that the crash in the natural gas rig count directly correlates to the crash in the price of natural gas.
Once a month, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. Last month, the report predicted new all-time highs for natural gas production in 2023 (see 
In September, production from the Marcellus and Utica shales averaged just under 35.1 Bcf/d — down from a nearly two-year high at 35.3 Bcf/d in August, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Over the past three years, producers in the Marcellus/Utica have dialed back output in September. Why? Cooling temperatures that lead to falling gas demand which further leads to a crash in gas prices. How bad is the gas price crash? The Eastern Gas South trading hub near Pittsburgh, considered the benchmark for the M-U, saw cash prices trading around $0.80/MMBtu yesterday. Yes, 80 cents! The October gas contract at Eastern Gas South recently settled as low as $0.99/MMBtu. Ouch.
According to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, large U.S. shale gas drillers (namely Marcellus/Utica drillers) have hedged (pre-sold at a specific price) an average of 50% of anticipated shale gas production for the second half of 2023. The average price of the hedges is $3.35/Mcf, far above the average NYMEX Henry Hub price that has been bumping along between $2.25 and $2.75. CNX Resources is the top hedger, hedging 80% of its production in 2H23 at $3.04/Mcf.
For traders who buy and sell NYMEX Henry Hub futures (and there is a fair number who read MDN), listen up! CME Group, which operates the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), announced it is launching Micro Henry Hub futures and options beginning November 6. The standard Henry Hub natural gas futures contract for a single contract trades 10,000 MMBtu of natural gas, equivalent to 10 million cubic feet (MMcf). The new Micro Henry Hub contract is one-tenth that size — 1,000 MMBtu, equivalent to 1 MMcf. The other major difference is that the standard Henry Hub contract costs $10 to execute, whereas the new Micro contract will cost just $1.
According to the International Gas Union’s (IGU) 2023 Global Wholesale Gas Price Survey report (full copy below), 2022 was THE most turbulent year in the history of gas markets, as the global energy crisis intensified and the global price levels reached record highs. Last year saw record price levels, with Europe’s wholesale prices reaching over $30 per MMBtu. The average world price for natural gas reached $9.44 per MMBtu in 2022 — the highest ever — compared to a record low of $3.23 per MMBtu in 2020. Record high prices last year were seen in all regions apart from North America and the Former Soviet Union.
According to analysts writing for S&P Global Commodity Insights, the long-range forecast from the U.S. National Weather Service calls for milder temperatures in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region this winter. Warm temps equal less natural gas usage. Williams’ Transco Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) project will partially come online in October, flowing an initial 450 MMcf/d (out of 829 MMcf/d) of Marcellus gas to PA, NJ, and Maryland. More supply with less demand is a classic economic prescription for lower prices in New York, New Jersey, and the Mid-Atlantic region. So says the S&P analysts.
We continue to monitor the price of natural gas, which has remained mired in the mid-$2 range for months on end. Every time it seems like it might make a run for $3, the price slides–as it did yesterday (down $0.12 to close at $2.73). We spotted two somewhat contradictory stories about the price of gas, both published by Reuters. One story is about a prediction from Bank of America, which said in a note that if we have a mild winter (as some are predicting), it’s quite possible the price of natgas will crash below $2 during the first quarter of 2024.
Yesterday MDN editor Jim Willis had a nice chat with a renewing MDN subscriber (a landowner with wells and leases in Ohio). The question arose, “What do you see happening right now?” Jim’s response: “As long as the price of natural gas stays below $3, not much!” Jim made the point that price drives this industry, and ongoing prices in the basement aren’t helping. Can we get an amen? Both Jim and the subscriber agreed that gas prices may be heading higher soon. That conversation seems to have been prescient. Yesterday the front-month Henry Hub NYMEX futures price rocketed to a six-week high, close to $3 (closing at $2.96/Mcf). Are we finally going to go above, and stay above, $3 gas?
Christopher Lewis, who trades Forex (foreign exchange), calls himself “The Trader Guy.” Lewis, writing for DailyForex, is calling attention to charts that (in his opinion) signal natural gas will “likely” reach the $3/MMBtu level soon. With only one or two brief exceptions, the Henry Hub price has traded below $3 since February. For most of the last five months, we’ve been range-bound, with the price of gas trading between $2 and $2.50/MMBtu. It’s lousy! We have eagerly watched for signs and signals the price would go higher. We notice the odd analyst or trader who predicts it, but nothing seems to come of it. Will this time be different? Is the price ready to break through and stay above $3?
Long-range forecasts for hot weather and a lighter-than-predicted storage report for natural gas led to a 6% spike up in the price of the NYMEX Henry Hub yesterday, closing at $2.76/MMBtu. The National Weather Service released modeling yesterday that shows hot temps will get hotter for the end of July and the beginning of August. Also, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly storage report yesterday, showing 41 Bcf was injected into storage for the previous week–lower than a predicted mid- to upper-40s Bcf. That was enough for traders to bid up the NYMEX price.