Henry Hub Spot Price Hit Lowest “Real” Level in 27 Yrs in February
The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub daily natural gas price averaged $1.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on February 20, 2024, the lowest price in inflation-adjusted dollars since “at least” 1997. In fact, when you look at the ten lowest daily Henry Hub natgas spot prices since Jan. 1, 1997, six of the ten lowest prices were in February 2024. The other four were in 2020, as the pandemic was taking hold. Amid this depressing news, there is a silver lining…
Read More “Henry Hub Spot Price Hit Lowest “Real” Level in 27 Yrs in February”
Finally, here’s a little good news to write about regarding the price of natural gas! The NYMEX front month futures contract yesterday started the day with a bang based on announcements from the previous evening (in advance of a conference call) from Chesapeake Energy that the company plans to scale back production by roughly 1 Bcfe/d in 2024 from 2023 levels (down 25-28%, see today’s lead story). Chessy’s announcement, along with rumblings from other big drillers about pulling back in 2024, was enough to boost the NYMEX, which closed up $0.20, or 11%, from the previous day. It was the largest one-day percentage gain since Thursday, July 7, 2022.
It feels like the NYMEX Henry Hub futures price for natural gas is in a free fall, heading for $1.50/MMBtu or (gasp) maybe even lower. Yesterday, the NYMEX price for the front month closed at $1.58/MMBtu. The price has been down for eight trading days in a row and is at the lowest price since June 26, 2020 — roughly 45 months. Year-to-date (45 days), the price is down 93.30 cents, or 37%. The national average for spot prices, a metric monitored by NGI, was down 6 cents yesterday to $1.60/MMBtu. Jeesh!
We’re sad to have to report on yet another down day of the NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures contract. Yesterday, the NYMEX price closed at $1.77/MMBtu, the lowest closing price for the “front month” contract in 3 1/2 years (since Monday, July 27, 2020). Yesterday’s closing price breaks through the latest “floor” of $1.80, an important psychological barrier traders monitor. As has been the case in recent weeks, weather is cited as the main factor in the low price. It’s just not cold enough this winter to spur big domestic demand for natgas. The price is down 31.4 cents (15%) over the last five trading sessions. How much lower will it go?
We report today in a companion story about the crash in the NYMEX price to $1.77/MMBtu that NGI’s Spot Gas National Average jumped 36.5 cents to $2.115 yesterday based on winter weather forecasts in some states. What will the Henry Hub spot price (not the futures price, but the physically traded spot price) average for 2024 and 2025? The number crunchers at EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) explain their reasoning for a prediction that the average spot price will remain below $3 this year and next.
U.S. natural gas and power prices hit multi-year highs in mid-January with the prospect of frigid temps and snow storms in various portions of the country (see 
Once a month, the analysts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issue the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), their best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months or so. We sometimes poke good-natured fun at the EIA because their predictions go up in one month, and in the next month, they go down, etc. What about the latest STEO dart board, published yesterday? It won’t surprise you to read that due to warmer weather, the EIA prognosticators believe the average Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will remain “subdued” around $2.40/MMBtu in February and March. What about for the entire year?
Just one week ago, the price of natural gas, both the futures price and spot (physical) price, jumped — in some cases by four times in the space of just a couple of days (see 
Well, that didn’t take long. Yesterday we told you about the huge jump in the price of natural gas, both the futures price and the spot (physically traded) price, due to the brutal cold snap much of the country is currently experiencing (see 
U.S. natural gas and power prices hit multi-year highs on Friday with the prospect of frigid temps and snow storms in various portions of the country. The extreme cold was expected to bring record gas demand and cut supplies by freezing wells. The spot price of natural gas at various trading hubs from the West Coast to Middle America to the East Coast all jumped. Of particular interest for us, spot gas prices at the Eastern Gas South hub, widely considered the “benchmark” for the Marcellus/Utica, jumped from $2.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Thursday to $10.40 on Friday — the highest price at that hub since July 2008.