Bernstein Research Predicts NatGas Price to Average $5 in 2025/26
Hart Energy is reporting some startling statements from Bernstein Research in a new report. One insight (statement) offered by Bernstein is that U.S. natural gas will average $5/Mcf in 2025 and 2026, and that’s “conservative, in our view.” Bernstein predicts “a coming U.S. gas super-cycle.” The Bernstein team expects U.S. gas demand will grow from some 120 Bcf/d today to 150 Bcf/d by 2030 as new AI data centers and LNG export trains come online. Read More “Bernstein Research Predicts NatGas Price to Average $5 in 2025/26”
Based on comments in two different Reuters articles published yesterday, the Freeport LNG export facility is again experiencing an outage. It appears to be a partial outage. Freeport, in typical tight-lipped fashion, refuses to say anything. According to Reuters, flows to the 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) Freeport facility were on track to drop to 1.4 Bcf/d yesterday, down from 1.6 Bcf/d on Sunday and an average of 2.1 Bcf/d over the prior seven days. Here we go again. 
The prices natural gas is selling for, both the NYMEX futures price and the spot price at various trading hubs, continue to climb. Last Friday, the NYMEX “front month” futures contract (based on gas flows at the Henry Hub in Southern Louisiana) traded above $4/MMBtu for some of the day, but ultimately closed at $3.989, up 28.8 cents day/day. Just a little over a penny away from $4! That’s the highest closing price in two years. The physical spot price of gas trading at large northeastern cities, like Boston and New York, soared. Even the price for pipeline gas in places like northeastern and southwestern Pennsylvania hit highs not seen in nearly one year. 
On June 14, 2024, the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) that runs from Wetzel County, WV, to Pittsylvania County, VA, announced the pipeline had, after a decade of planning and building, finally begun to flow Marcellus/Utica molecules (see 
We have a post-mortem for the price of natural gas in 2024, and it ain’t pretty. With respect to the “front month” NYMEX futures price average during 2024, BofA (Bank of America) Global Research said in a report that the Henry Hub natural gas price averaged just $2.41 per MMBtu last year. It was “the lowest level since 2020 and second lowest level in at least 25 years.” Ouch. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) did a review of the Henry Hub spot (physically traded) price for 2024 and found it averaged $2.21 per MMBtu. That’s the lowest average annual price in inflation-adjusted dollars EVER reported. Double ouch. 
According to CME Group, the worldwide natural gas market has evolved, and trading activity has grown in the past few years. The trading volume of Henry Hub Natural Gas (NG) futures during non-U.S. hours has more than doubled from a couple of years ago. We are truly interconnected worldwide. However, there are implications and consequences to being interconnected. Namely, the U.S. gas market is less shielded from global events due to the global linkage created by our LNG exports. It becomes imperative for U.S. gas traders to understand and monitor what’s happening around the globe and how world events may cause volatility. Traders need to monitor for sudden shifts in global demand-and-supply balance, changes in weather patterns, and geopolitical risk. 
There was a last-minute roller coaster ride for the NYMEX “front month” natural gas price earlier this week. On Monday, the price soared to $3.936 per million British thermal units (MMBtus). It was the largest one-day dollar gain since Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022, and the largest one-day percentage gain since Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022. Monday’s closing price was the second-highest closing price of the year, with the highest coming the week before on Dec. 24 at $3.946 (just one penny difference). Then, on Tuesday, the last day of 2024, the price fell by 30.3 cents (7.7%) to $3.633. However, the big news for NYMEX prices in 2024 is that from the first trading day of the year (Jan. 2) to the last (Dec. 31), the price rose 44.51%. Not too shabby given the attacks natural gas suffered under the Biden administration! 
The NYMEX futures price for natural gas keeps climbing. Significantly. Last week, the “front month” contract for the NYMEX gained 46.8 cents per MMBtu (up 14% for the week). On Friday, the price closed at $3.748/MMBtu. The price soared 16.4 cents on Friday alone! Friday’s closing price was the highest since Monday, Jan. 9, 2023—in nearly two full years. U.S. natural gas storage withdrawals are “exceeding seasonal averages, and record liquefied natural gas (LNG) export volumes are maintaining strong demand,” said Brian Swan, senior commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, in a daily note. What’s next for the price? 
Just yesterday, we noted the recent run-up in the NYMEX futures price for natural gas (see 
The price of natural gas, both the Henry Hub NYMEX futures price and the spot price, essentially drives more (or less) drilling for natural gas. Hence our frequent coverage of the price, at least when that price is over $3 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtus). The “front month” NYMEX contract closed higher again yesterday at $3.374/MMBtu. Over the past two days, the price has gone up a cumulative total of $0.16, or roughly 5%. The price has gone up four of the past six trading days and is now at the fourth-highest closing price for all of 2024. The question is, why? 
This is VERY interesting. The nonpartisan S&P Global, which never (we mean NEVER) seeks to ruffle political feathers, released a study on LNG exports on the very same day as the Biden/Granholm Department of Energy released its LNG export study. The S&P study, which came out a few hours earlier than the DOE study, says more U.S. LNG exports will NOT raise the domestic price of natural gas, at least not appreciably. The Biden-corrupted DOE report says the opposite, that more LNG exports will cause domestic natural gas prices to go through the roof (and consequently, we shouldn’t build more LNG export facilities). Who do you believe? The company that is one of THE largest financial analysis companies in the world, that manages the S&P 500 Index and S&P credit ratings? Or lying, sore-loser politicians like the ditsy Jennifer Granholm and Joementia Biden? 
You can go crazy trying to forecast where the price of natural gas is heading—and why. Lately the price has stayed above $3/MMBtu. That’s always a happy thing. Will the price stay continue to stay above $3? Will it go up even more? Or fall below $3? Are the “bulls” (those who think the price will go higher) or the “bears” (those who believe the price will go lower) in charge at this point? These are all great questions, and the answer is, “It depends on who you read and listen to.” 
Earlier this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. As part of our coverage, we highlighted the news that the EIA is predicting natural gas prices this winter and for all of 2025 will be roughly 40% higher than the Henry Hub price for gas in November (see 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In October, the EIA predicted the average spot price for natural gas would be $3.10/MMBtu in 2025 (see 
Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for July through September 2024 (full copy below). There were 63 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 3Q24, the same exact number as in 2Q24, but 3Q’s number was a decrease of 39 wells (-38%) compared to the third quarter of 2023. The number of new wells drilled, 63, is the lowest since 2008 (except for 2Q24, which was also 63). This was the eighth consecutive quarter with a year-over-year (YOY) decline in new wells spud. Natural gas production volume was 1,838 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 3Q24, down 33 Bcf (1.8%) from the 1,871 Bcf produced in 3Q23.