NYMEX NatGas Price Jumps Another 27.3 Cents to $4.28/MMBtu
Yesterday, MDN noted the NYMEX “front month” futures price of natural gas had jumped 28.2 cents to close just above $4/MMBtu (see Wx Drives March NYMEX Price to Close at $4/MMBtu, Spot Price Higher). The price did it again. Yesterday, the NYMEX price for March delivery closed +6.8% to $4.280/MMBtu, a new 52-week high and the highest settlement value for the front-month contract since December 30, 2022. U.S. natural gas has surged 40% this month alone and 18% year-to-date. Read More “NYMEX NatGas Price Jumps Another 27.3 Cents to $4.28/MMBtu”
Hold on, everyone. The NYMEX natural gas price roller coaster is climbing up the next hill, and there is no telling how high it will go—or how quickly it will go down again. Yesterday, the NYMEX “front month” (March contract) for natural gas futures based on the price at the Henry Hub soared 28.2 cents to close at $4.0070 (call it $4.01). It was the sixth day in a row that the price has gone higher. The current cold snap (weather) in the central and eastern sections of the country is credited with the rise in the price. NGI reports its nationwide average for the spot price of natgas soared $1.010 to $6.880, its highest level since Winter Storm Enzo in mid-January. 
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA said the natural gas price at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub is expected to average $3.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtus) in 2025—up about 23% from its January forecast ($3.10). EIA also raised its estimate for 2026, putting the annual average price at $4.20 MMBtus, up 5% compared with $4.00 in its January report. 
According to an analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, U.S. natural gas output stands near an all-time high as a period of strong demand and improved prices enable a production resurgence. Output averaged 106 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) over the latest weekend. In the Marcellus/Utica, production over the last seven days has come in at nearly 36 Bcf/d, up about 1.7 Bcf/d, or 5%, compared with the prior week. Single-day volumes at 36.3 Bcf over each of the last several days mark highs not recorded since winter 2023-2024. 
We sometimes poke fun at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predictions, accusing the analysts of using a dart board to generate the estimates they issue, especially with the future price of natural gas. But honestly, they have a tough job. Price is a complex issue with a lot of factors. Even though the EIA’s track record has sometimes been off by a lot, it remains the one source most quoted by the media and experts worldwide regarding future price predictions. In yesterday’s Today in Energy web publication, EIA says it “expects higher wholesale U.S. natural gas prices as demand increases.” Its latest forecast for the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price is that the overall average for all of 2025 natgas will average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). EIA expects that number to increase in 2026 to an average of $4.00/MMBtu. Is that realistic? 
Baby, it’s cold outside! And it’s getting colder beginning this weekend and moving into next week. The cold weather, combined with less natural gas in storage (less than the average), has increased the NYMEX “front month” futures contract for natural gas. Yesterday, the NYMEX price closed at $4.2580 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the highest close since Dec. 30, 2022. Temps across the eastern half of the country (especially in the northeast) are set to hit lows not seen in years beginning next week. We think prices for NYMEX and many spot prices at trading hubs will spike higher. 
Hart Energy is reporting some startling statements from Bernstein Research in a new report. One insight (statement) offered by Bernstein is that U.S. natural gas will average $5/Mcf in 2025 and 2026, and that’s “conservative, in our view.” Bernstein predicts “a coming U.S. gas super-cycle.” The Bernstein team expects U.S. gas demand will grow from some 120 Bcf/d today to 150 Bcf/d by 2030 as new AI data centers and LNG export trains come online. 
Based on comments in two different Reuters articles published yesterday, the Freeport LNG export facility is again experiencing an outage. It appears to be a partial outage. Freeport, in typical tight-lipped fashion, refuses to say anything. According to Reuters, flows to the 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) Freeport facility were on track to drop to 1.4 Bcf/d yesterday, down from 1.6 Bcf/d on Sunday and an average of 2.1 Bcf/d over the prior seven days. Here we go again. 
The prices natural gas is selling for, both the NYMEX futures price and the spot price at various trading hubs, continue to climb. Last Friday, the NYMEX “front month” futures contract (based on gas flows at the Henry Hub in Southern Louisiana) traded above $4/MMBtu for some of the day, but ultimately closed at $3.989, up 28.8 cents day/day. Just a little over a penny away from $4! That’s the highest closing price in two years. The physical spot price of gas trading at large northeastern cities, like Boston and New York, soared. Even the price for pipeline gas in places like northeastern and southwestern Pennsylvania hit highs not seen in nearly one year. 
On June 14, 2024, the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) that runs from Wetzel County, WV, to Pittsylvania County, VA, announced the pipeline had, after a decade of planning and building, finally begun to flow Marcellus/Utica molecules (see 
We have a post-mortem for the price of natural gas in 2024, and it ain’t pretty. With respect to the “front month” NYMEX futures price average during 2024, BofA (Bank of America) Global Research said in a report that the Henry Hub natural gas price averaged just $2.41 per MMBtu last year. It was “the lowest level since 2020 and second lowest level in at least 25 years.” Ouch. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) did a review of the Henry Hub spot (physically traded) price for 2024 and found it averaged $2.21 per MMBtu. That’s the lowest average annual price in inflation-adjusted dollars EVER reported. Double ouch. 
According to CME Group, the worldwide natural gas market has evolved, and trading activity has grown in the past few years. The trading volume of Henry Hub Natural Gas (NG) futures during non-U.S. hours has more than doubled from a couple of years ago. We are truly interconnected worldwide. However, there are implications and consequences to being interconnected. Namely, the U.S. gas market is less shielded from global events due to the global linkage created by our LNG exports. It becomes imperative for U.S. gas traders to understand and monitor what’s happening around the globe and how world events may cause volatility. Traders need to monitor for sudden shifts in global demand-and-supply balance, changes in weather patterns, and geopolitical risk. 
There was a last-minute roller coaster ride for the NYMEX “front month” natural gas price earlier this week. On Monday, the price soared to $3.936 per million British thermal units (MMBtus). It was the largest one-day dollar gain since Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022, and the largest one-day percentage gain since Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022. Monday’s closing price was the second-highest closing price of the year, with the highest coming the week before on Dec. 24 at $3.946 (just one penny difference). Then, on Tuesday, the last day of 2024, the price fell by 30.3 cents (7.7%) to $3.633. However, the big news for NYMEX prices in 2024 is that from the first trading day of the year (Jan. 2) to the last (Dec. 31), the price rose 44.51%. Not too shabby given the attacks natural gas suffered under the Biden administration! 
The NYMEX futures price for natural gas keeps climbing. Significantly. Last week, the “front month” contract for the NYMEX gained 46.8 cents per MMBtu (up 14% for the week). On Friday, the price closed at $3.748/MMBtu. The price soared 16.4 cents on Friday alone! Friday’s closing price was the highest since Monday, Jan. 9, 2023—in nearly two full years. U.S. natural gas storage withdrawals are “exceeding seasonal averages, and record liquefied natural gas (LNG) export volumes are maintaining strong demand,” said Brian Swan, senior commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, in a daily note. What’s next for the price? 
Just yesterday, we noted the recent run-up in the NYMEX futures price for natural gas (see 
The price of natural gas, both the Henry Hub NYMEX futures price and the spot price, essentially drives more (or less) drilling for natural gas. Hence our frequent coverage of the price, at least when that price is over $3 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtus). The “front month” NYMEX contract closed higher again yesterday at $3.374/MMBtu. Over the past two days, the price has gone up a cumulative total of $0.16, or roughly 5%. The price has gone up four of the past six trading days and is now at the fourth-highest closing price for all of 2024. The question is, why?