The Magical Thinking of Peak Oil/Gas Theorists

Magical ThinkingYou know what magical thinking is? It’s when an analyst/consultant repeatedly predicted that the world had reached “peak oil” production and that oil production was/will soon decline, leading to insanely high prices for oil. Then the shale revolution happened. Oops. So much for the discredited “peak oil” theory. But the same analyst, for a long time, kept repeating his discredited theory. We call that magical thinking. That same analyst then predicted “peak natural gas”–that the shale revolution was a bubble and would soon end because shale wells peter out so quickly, dontcha know. The analyst never factored new technology, and new shale layers, would be discovered. Oops. More magical thinking. Now that same analyst says cheap shale gas will end soon–the price is about to go insanely high. Yet more magical thinking…

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