Two weeks ago MDN highlighted the opinions, as expressed in a book to be published in the spring, from an “expert” who says shale gas supplies in the U.S. will last less than 10 years (see this MDN story). We were a bit incredulous and doubtful—the book is written by an energy investment advisor, not a geologist. But we now have a second contrary voice to add to his—this one is Arthur Berman, a geological consultant with 34 years of experience in petroleum exploration and production.
Berman says, among other things, that the decline rates for shale oil are very steep and that unless we’re drilling thousands of new wells each year, we won’t even stay even with the oil we’re producing now. His opinion is in stark contrast to the IEA, EIA and other governmental organizations that predict the U.S. will soon surpass Saudi Arabia to be the world’s largest oil producer (we’ve already surpassed Russia to be the largest natural gas producer). Here’s some of Berman’s comments in an interview on shale gas and oil: