EIA Feb. STEO Makes Huge Change (+$0.85) re 2026 Avg Spot Price

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best estimate of where energy prices and production will head over the next 12 months. There was a major revision to the agency's prediction about the spot price (at the Henry Hub) for natural gas in 2026. Just last month, EIA predicted the HH spot price would average $3.46 per million British thermal units (see EIA Jan. STEO Predicts HH Spot Price Avg $3.46 2026, $4.59 2027). Yesterday, given the sharp price spike due to Winter Storm Fern and an expected drawdown in gas in storage, the EIA said its new estimate is that the HH spot price will average $4.31/MMBtu. That's an 85-cent (a full 25%) increase in just one month. Haul out the EIA price dartboard!

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