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Chronometer Partners CIO Matthew Smith warns the U.S. faces a structural natural gas shortage by 2028, as AI data centers' round-the-clock power needs collide with surging LNG export commitments. His firm's 18-month study found production may grow roughly 20 Bcf/d by 2030, but LNG exports alone (rising from about 15 to 35 Bcf/day) could absorb most of that gain, sparking a "knife fight" for supply. Energy already accounts for roughly 10% of AI compute costs, potentially reaching 20-30% if gas prices double or triple. Winners could include gas producers, nuclear and solar generators; hyperscalers and equipment suppliers face rising cost pressure and possible slower buildout.
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