EIA Mar. STEO Makes Big Change Down (-$0.55) re 2026 Avg Spot Price

Wow! What a difference a month makes. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best estimate of where energy prices and production will head over the next 12 months. There was a major revision to the agency’s prediction about the spot price (at the Henry Hub) for natural gas in 2026. Just last month, EIA predicted the HH spot price would average $4.31 per million British thermal units (see EIA Feb. STEO Makes Huge Change (+$0.85) re 2026 Avg Spot Price). That was an 85-cent increase over the previous month. In yesterday's STEO, the EIA wacked the price prediction once again, this time lowering it by 55 cents to $3.76. Did someone at EIA have a few beers before playing with the pricing dart board?

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