U.S. Explores Luring Saudis Away from OPEC into New Oil Alliance
OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is a pact of colluding oil-producing companies that act to artificially lower or raise the price of oil around the world based on how much the colluders are willing to pump. OPEC is the antithesis of free trade. But it does serve a purpose that (unfortunately) all oil drillers, including U.S. drillers, depend on–keeping prices high enough to be profitable. OPEC added Russia in a loose confederation for the past three years or so, something referred to as OPEC+. But then Russia recently told Saudi Arabia, the main OPEC player, to kiss off and left the OPEC+ fold, preferring to pump as much oil as they can. Saudi Arabia responded by increasing its production too, to drive prices into the basement, causing Russia (and U.S. shale drillers) pain.
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A week ago we brought you the story that predicted the price of oil would go from the $30/barrel range down to the $20/barrel range–something almost unthinkable. And then it happened within a few days! Now we’re reading of warnings from Barclays, one of the biggest banks in the world, that the price of oil may go as low as (GASP) $10/barrel. At that price, there’s maybe one producer in the world that can still make at least some money–Saudi Arabia. Everyone else would be upside down and heading for bankruptcy court.
Last Friday MDN laid out three potential options for how the U.S. government can deal with the Saudis and Russians flooding world markets with oil, driving the price into the basement in a bid to bankrupt American shale oil drillers, a practice called dumping (see 
Should the U.S. government step in to help the American oil and gas industry, given the current double crisis of both lower demand (COVID-19) and oversupply (the Saudi-Russia oil price war)? We’ve written about rumblings that since the Saudis and Russians are dumping oil (selling it far below the price to make it) on the world market, in an attempt to bankrupt American shale drillers, that the government should consider either imposing tariffs on imported oil, or possibly embargo imported oil. Free traders are aghast at such a notion. Fair traders (like yours truly) are less aghast, although as a general rule we don’t favor government intervention in the marketplace. Below are two differing views on whether or not Uncle Sam should do something to help O&G. Interestingly, the American Petroleum Institute says “no way” to government intervention.
The world as we knew it radically and fundamentally changed over the past two weeks. That’s a fact. The double whammy of the COVID-19 coronavirus shutting down world commerce (causing a big reduction in the use of oil and gas), and the Saudis and Russians engaging in an oil price war, flooding the world market with oil at a time when oil demand has gone down, is going to have an impact on the oil AND natural gas markets in the U.S. (and around the world) for months, likely years to come. How much of an impact is yet to be seen. We think the impact will be big. The experts at RBN Energy have taken a stab at predicting how these events will affect the entire U.S. oil and gas industry in 2020. As part of their coverage, RBN looks at impacts on “gas-focused” drillers, primarily in the Marcellus/Utica.
U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer, Republican from North Dakota, sent President Trump a letter on Wednesday asking the President to take “immediate action” in slapping an embargo on crude oil imported from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC countries. In 2018 (most recent stats) the U.S. imported nearly 1.5 million barrels per day of oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Cramer wants the spigot turned off from those countries in order to give our own companies the opportunity to supply oil to ourselves. We personally love the idea–but there are others (whom we respect) who strongly disagree with an embargo or any kind of governmental interference in the free market.
It’s getting bloody out there. Just two days ago we told you the “unthinkable” may happen, that oil may approach or hit $20/barrel (see 
Yesterday we wrote that the price of oil is in a free fall, heading toward $20/barrel (see 
In early January, the average price for a barrel of oil was $63. Yesterday the price closed at $28.70. Word on the street is that the price may go as low as $20/barrel, soon, and stay there for a while. Why? Because the Saudis and Russians have oil-pumping fever. They’re pumping as much oil as fast as they can. And that’s producing a global surplus of oil chasing buyers who don’t want it. According to IHS Markit VP and head of oil markets Jim Burkhard, “The last time that there was a global surplus of this magnitude was never. Prior to this the largest six-month global surplus this century was 360 million barrels. What is coming will be twice that or more.” The price of oil has crashed–and unless the Saudis and Russians let up, the price will stay crashed for some time to come.
If you operate a company that sells a product (particularly a commodity product) you only have two ways of making a profit: Sell the product for more money or cut expenses (or both). For oil drillers, the price of the product sold is pretty much fixed. Some drillers have “hedged” their production, pre-selling future production at a specific price. But many don’t hedge. And hedging contracts typically don’t extend beyond a year. In the case of oil, the world market sets the price, and the price this week is about half of what it was last week. That means most shale oil drillers won’t make a profit–unless they can trim costs. One of the ways drillers are attempting to cut costs is by asking the companies that do the actual drilling and perform services for them (oilfield services companies, or OFS) to cut the rate they charge.
Back in the day, your humble editor, Jim Willis, worked first an intern and later as a paid staffer in the Ronald Reagan White House. Very cool experience for a hick kid from Upstate New York. After a stint at the White House, Jim stayed in D.C. and went to work on Capitol Hill, working for Congresswoman Helen Bentley (Republican from Maryland). One of Bentley’s favorite issues was to fight against the dumping of machine tools by foreign companies on the American market. Companies in other counties would sell machine tools here more cheaply than it cost them to make, using backdoor funding from their governments to make up the difference. Eventually, our machine tool companies couldn’t compete and would go out of business, leaving the market wide open to foreign competitors, at which time they would jack their prices up.
The price of natural gas in various locations, including the NYMEX futures price, has been inching up over the past few days. Yesterday the NYMEX price closed down slightly, at $1.88/Mcf. But that’s better than the $1.60 territory where it’s been bumping around. The price is inching up because of the Saudi-Russian oil price war. Most traders figure there will be less shale oil drilling in the U.S., and because of it, less associated natural gas production from places like the Permian (and Bakken). Which in turn means less supply, driving up prices for natgas. How long will prices go up? And, how high will the price go? We spotted one trader’s take on where he believes prices are heading.
We continue our coverage of the historic (in a bad way) oil price war started by Russia against American shale drillers, now complicated by Saudi Arabia as they have turned the spigot wide open to pump as much oil as they can, resulting in a price crash for oil. From time to time we’ve featured comments and reports issued by IHS Markit, a global analytics company that tracks data in the oil and gas industry. Yesterday we received IHS Markit’s “key conclusions” from the latest assessment of oil markets. It’s called, “Oil Markets and Industry Brace for Crash as Supply Floodgates Open.” We think it’s about the best summation of what has happened (so far), and what’s likely to happen in the near- and medium-term.
Something truly historic happened yesterday. And there is a tie-in to the Marcellus/Utica (which we’ll get to, stick with us). At its core, what happened yesterday is pretty simple to grasp, although most media stories you read either miss it or bury it. Last Friday Russia told OPEC it would no longer participate in coordinating production cuts with Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries in an effort to boost the price of oil (see 
Over 700 people gathered yesterday in Columbus, OH for OOGA’s (Ohio Oil & Gas Association) 73rd Annual Meeting. Industry leaders soberly assessed the state of current affairs. According to OOGA president Matt Hammond, the industry may have to downsize for a while. Jeff Fisher, CEO of Ascent Resources, agreed. Hammond said, “it’s just going to look a little bit different in the next few years” before the price of gas rebounds. The sentiment was clearly what we’ve been preaching: Expect lower for longer when it comes to gas prices.