McKinsey: Marcellus Production Will Grow 6% per Year Thru 2030
Powerhouse consulting firm McKinsey & Co. recently released the “North American gas outlook to 2030” report (summary below) with some interesting findings. Among them: Natural gas production in the Marcellus/Utica will rise an average of 6% per year from now until 2030 (next 11 years). And because of the huge supply of gas coming from M-U and the Permian, the price of natural gas will average $2.75 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) for the long-term, perhaps even a bit lower than $2.75. That’s certainly unwelcome news–but we have to know what we’re dealing with to know how to meet the challenges ahead.
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The pipeline situation today in the Marcellus/Utica region is far different than it was just a year or two ago. Not long ago lack of pipelines meant we had an overabundance of natural gas in the region without buyers, driving prices into the basement. Today? It’s all different. Because of new and expanded pipelines coming online over the past couple of years, producers (i.e. drillers) today have options on where to send their natural gas–fetching far better prices in new markets. In fact, according to the analysts at RBN Energy, “The spate of pipeline expansions and additions in the past two years have not only caught up to production but capacity now far outpaces it.” That’s a big switcheroo.
The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) yesterday released its 2019 Summer Outlook for Natural Gas report (summary below). It’s not much different than the Winter Outlook was (see 
This is nuts! This is insane! Because of overproduction, lack of pipelines, and an existing pipeline down for maintenance, natural gas sellers at the Waha natural gas trading hub (in West Texas) are actually paying buyers to take the gas off their hands–up to an amazing $5 per thousand cubic feet!!!!
Reuters is reporting that the price of natural gas selling at the Waha Hub in the Permian Basin (West Texas) averaged just $0.12 (12 cents) per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) yesterday, a new record low. But wait! MDN reported last November the price at Waha had hit minus 1 cent/Mcf–people paying someone else to take their gas (see 
The folks at Argus Media have done an analysis of the number of shale well permits issued in Pennsylvania for January 2019. The numbers show the number of new permits issued during January were up 72% from the number issued in December 2018, but down 11% from the number of permits issued in January 2018, one year earlier. Can we divine anything from this mixed bag of numbers?
Sorry to burst your bubble, all you gas bulls who believe low storage numbers + weather (hot or cold) = high natgas prices for the long term.
Antero Resources, one of the biggest drillers in the Marcellus/Utica, is also one of the best hedging companies in the business. They routinely lock in prices for their gas up to a year (or more) in advance, to ensure they make a tidy profit. And Antero averages higher prices for their gas sales than just about any other Marcellus/Utica producer. This morning Antero issued an update on their latest hedging moves, which is always interesting. But that’s not what caught our eye. They also issued a fourth quarter update. No, not for the entire fourth quarter as we still have a few weeks left in 4Q and the full, official 4Q update won’t come along until maybe the end of January. But in this interim 4Q update, we spotted the news that because of the addition of the Rover Pipeline, Antero now sells a full 30% (up from 16%) of their natural gas production to Midwest markets–markets that pay, on average, more for gas than elsewhere.
MDN has run a number of stories on the recent wild fluctuations in the price of natural gas. As we always explain, there is no one “price” of natgas for everyone–but there is the Henry Hub price, which is used for trading futures contracts (NYMEX). That price is watched like a hawk by everyone who trades natural gas. A casual observer of the market might think, based on media coverage, that the swings in the NYMEX price mean something bad. Negative. “The price I’ll pay this winter will go high, and it will stay high, and the shale “revolution” was always just a mirage and this proves it!” Whew. Take a chill pill. The chief economist for the American Petroleum Institute recently penned what we call a natgas price explainer, looking at the recent spikes in the price, providing context for understanding that the price we pay for gas is still, on average, at historic lows. And no, the sky is not falling.
The evidence continues to pour in that the addition of Williams’ Atlantic Sunrise Pipeline, a 200-mile greenfield pipeline from northeastern to southeastern PA where it joins the Transco Pipeline, is having a dramatic and ongoing effect on natural gas prices in northeastern PA. As in, the price drillers get for their gas has doubled. Atlantic Sunrise went online in early October (see 
This one will make your head explode. We’ve been warning about this for some time, or rather, RBN Energy has been warning about it (and we’ve brought you their warnings). During a recent three hour period of natural gas trading at the Waha Hub (in West Texas), the price of gas went to negative 1 cent per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). You read that right. Someone was paying someone else to buy the gas from them! Why? Too much “associated gas” being produced in the prolific Permian Basin, and not enough pipelines to carry it to other markets. The Permian is all about oil drilling. Natural gas is a byproduct, to the point it may be worth giving it away for free just to get rid of it so a driller can keep pumping oil. The proliferation of natgas in the region is driving prices into the subbasement.
This is an “I told you so” post. Last Wednesday, just ahead of what was perhaps the coldest temps for Thanksgiving on record in New England, the price of electricity and the price of natural gas both spiked in New England. Most electricity produced in the region is produced by burning natural gas. Natgas was selling for $13.70/Mcf (thousand cubic feet, or million BTUs) last Wednesday. That was up from an average of $4.67/Mcf this year (up almost 300%). The reason for the spike is lack of natural gas, and the reason for lack of natural gas is a lack of pipelines, plain and simple. And this won’t be the last time. New England will get hosed this winter as prices rocket every time there’s a cold snap. We take no pleasure in saying, “Told you so.”
We’re not going to continue to cover news about the price of natural gas each day, because the price goes up, then it goes down, then it goes back up…you get the idea. We will, however, bring you one more story today on the price of natgas, because of the ongoing wild swings in price. The fact that prices goes up and down is not mysterious and frankly, not noteworthy. What is noteworthy is the sudden and dramatic swings–called volatility in the business. Last Wednesday the NYMEX futures price for gas hit a four-year high, up 18% in a single day (see 
Yesterday MDN brought you the news that the price of the NYMEX natural gas futures contract closed (on Wednesday) at a four-year high, up 18% (see 