Why U.S. Gov’t is Not (Yet) Addressing Oil Price Crash Issue
Why is the Trump Administration not taking decisive action to address the crash in the oil price brought on by the Saudis and Russians? Agreeing to “talk about it” with the Russians, as we outline in another post today, is not action. Neither is buying up some extra barrels of oil for the strategic petroleum reserve. We think David Blackmon, a longtime oil industry worker and observer hits the nail on the head in a new column just published by Forbes. The reason the government isn’t addressing the oil price crash issue right now is…
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Tenaska is #3 on the list of North American gas marketers–buying and selling more natural gas throughout the country than every other company save two (BP and Macquarie, see 
Everyone, and we mean everyone, is still reeling from the double shock of the COVID-19 coronavirus and its effect on the world economy, and the Saudis and Russians pumping more oil, driving oil prices into the ground. Frankly, the COVID-19 virus is the bigger deal. It will have long-lasting effects for years to come on the U.S. economy, including a big effect on the oil and gas industry. The question is, what kind of effect? Is there any way to predict what may happen in the coming couple of years and longer? No one can really predict, but if anyone could, it would be the bright minds at RBN Energy. They’ve attempted the near-impossible: Try to predict how things will change following the COVID-19 lockdown (around March 6). Try to divine how the oil and gas (and NGL and midstream) worlds will change in the coming months and years. Their assessment is sobering.
The American oil industry is in crisis. This is undeniable. Some folks will point out this isn’t the first serious downturn for the oil industry, and it won’t be the last. True enough. But this one IS different. Not in recent memory (at least a generation) has there been both a shock in the supply picture (Saudis and Russians fully opening up the taps) and a shock in the demand picture (very little travel due to the pandemic). We at MDN have taken a view in favor of a tariff on imported foreign oil to encourage better behavior. Now comes a tweak to the tariff strategy.
We’ve brought you several stories about the Saudi-Russian oil price war underway in which both Saudi Arabia and the Russians are pumping oil like crazy and lowering the price they charge for their oil–all in a bid to bankrupt American shale oil companies. A number of ideas have been floated to “encourage” the Saudis to scale back on production, which would raise prices again (the Russians are a lost cause and not worth the effort). We’ve talked about an embargo on foreign oil coming into the country (see 
It seems no market has been left untouched by the COVID-19 coronavirus. Not even the LNG (liquefied natural gas) market. Force majeures–cancelations of LNG contracts due to circumstances “beyond our control”–are now an almost daily occurrence. Big tankers full of LNG often leave a port without a final destination, receiving instructions along the way on where the ship will unload the LNG. A cascading number of force majeures has some of those ships sailing around, “all dressed up but nowhere to go.”
What a change just a few weeks (and a pandemic and oil price crash) can bring! One month ago MDN brought you the sobering news that the stock prices for most Marcellus/Utica companies had sunk to new lows (see 
OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is a pact of colluding oil-producing companies that act to artificially lower or raise the price of oil around the world based on how much the colluders are willing to pump. OPEC is the antithesis of free trade. But it does serve a purpose that (unfortunately) all oil drillers, including U.S. drillers, depend on–keeping prices high enough to be profitable. OPEC added Russia in a loose confederation for the past three years or so, something referred to as OPEC+. But then Russia recently told Saudi Arabia, the main OPEC player, to kiss off and left the OPEC+ fold, preferring to pump as much oil as they can. Saudi Arabia responded by increasing its production too, to drive prices into the basement, causing Russia (and U.S. shale drillers) pain.
A week ago we brought you the story that predicted the price of oil would go from the $30/barrel range down to the $20/barrel range–something almost unthinkable. And then it happened within a few days! Now we’re reading of warnings from Barclays, one of the biggest banks in the world, that the price of oil may go as low as (GASP) $10/barrel. At that price, there’s maybe one producer in the world that can still make at least some money–Saudi Arabia. Everyone else would be upside down and heading for bankruptcy court.
Should the U.S. government step in to help the American oil and gas industry, given the current double crisis of both lower demand (COVID-19) and oversupply (the Saudi-Russia oil price war)? We’ve written about rumblings that since the Saudis and Russians are dumping oil (selling it far below the price to make it) on the world market, in an attempt to bankrupt American shale drillers, that the government should consider either imposing tariffs on imported oil, or possibly embargo imported oil. Free traders are aghast at such a notion. Fair traders (like yours truly) are less aghast, although as a general rule we don’t favor government intervention in the marketplace. Below are two differing views on whether or not Uncle Sam should do something to help O&G. Interestingly, the American Petroleum Institute says “no way” to government intervention.
The world as we knew it radically and fundamentally changed over the past two weeks. That’s a fact. The double whammy of the COVID-19 coronavirus shutting down world commerce (causing a big reduction in the use of oil and gas), and the Saudis and Russians engaging in an oil price war, flooding the world market with oil at a time when oil demand has gone down, is going to have an impact on the oil AND natural gas markets in the U.S. (and around the world) for months, likely years to come. How much of an impact is yet to be seen. We think the impact will be big. The experts at RBN Energy have taken a stab at predicting how these events will affect the entire U.S. oil and gas industry in 2020. As part of their coverage, RBN looks at impacts on “gas-focused” drillers, primarily in the Marcellus/Utica.
U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer, Republican from North Dakota, sent President Trump a letter on Wednesday asking the President to take “immediate action” in slapping an embargo on crude oil imported from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC countries. In 2018 (most recent stats) the U.S. imported nearly 1.5 million barrels per day of oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Cramer wants the spigot turned off from those countries in order to give our own companies the opportunity to supply oil to ourselves. We personally love the idea–but there are others (whom we respect) who strongly disagree with an embargo or any kind of governmental interference in the free market.
It’s getting bloody out there. Just two days ago we told you the “unthinkable” may happen, that oil may approach or hit $20/barrel (see 
Yesterday we wrote that the price of oil is in a free fall, heading toward $20/barrel (see 
In early January, the average price for a barrel of oil was $63. Yesterday the price closed at $28.70. Word on the street is that the price may go as low as $20/barrel, soon, and stay there for a while. Why? Because the Saudis and Russians have oil-pumping fever. They’re pumping as much oil as fast as they can. And that’s producing a global surplus of oil chasing buyers who don’t want it. According to IHS Markit VP and head of oil markets Jim Burkhard, “The last time that there was a global surplus of this magnitude was never. Prior to this the largest six-month global surplus this century was 360 million barrels. What is coming will be twice that or more.” The price of oil has crashed–and unless the Saudis and Russians let up, the price will stay crashed for some time to come.