EIA Cuts 2H22 LNG Export Prediction by 14%, HH Price by 44%

Each month the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issues a monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). In May, the STEO made the startling prediction that the average Henry Hub price for natural gas (the national benchmark) would average $8.59 for the entire second half of this year (see Latest Monthly STEO Predicts HH Spot Price to Avg $8.59 in 2H22). In June, EIA reiterated its prediction of $8.59 for the second half of the year (see EIA’s STEO Predicts Henry Hub Gas Price to Avg $8.69 in 3Q22). The most recent STEO, for July, predicts HH will average just $5.97 for the second half of this year, down some 44% from the May/June prediction. What happened?

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